Is this the second wave then?

[Anothernamebitesthedust]

Sorry if this has been done, in which case do please point me towards it. But are we (and France, Spain, etc) now in the second wave?

All over the news this morning was how doctors pretty much unanimously expect a second wave to hit us ‘this winter’. Which made me wonder what this is, if not a second wave.

I mean weren’t predictions that a second wave could be worse? And stats (cases, not deaths) are much higher in both France and Spain than they were during spring. Presumably we’ll follow.

So, does anyone who knows about this know if this is it? And if it is, is it good or bad that it’s come sooner than anticipated?

the common cold is a coronavirus
this is particularly covid 19 that is dangerous

@SqidgeBum

I have relatives working in nhs hospitals. They were told last week that things are going to get serious imminently, and this is the second 'wave', although my sister (A&E) calls them 'ripples' rather than waves as her attitude is there wont be gaps. There will simply be a continuous up and down of cases close together.

I think we need to stop thinking of them as 'waves' and more think of them as 'life'. This is the way its going to be from now on. Cases will go up and down. It's the death numbers we need to worry about.

When things shut down cases go down. When things start to open up (particularly indoors without social distancing) and people get lax then cases go up.

If we go for the lockdown approach, this is what the pattern will continue to look like
It's one way of dealing with it

@annabel85 ..... yes .... that's what is to be expected ....

Testing is in a ridiculous state so R rate will be higher than given. All they can do is estimate given the evidence can't be supplied. Second wave unavoidable now, it's practically being invited in. I predict a pre Christmas peak that will taper off in time for restrictions to be relaxed in time for Christmas itself. A present from them to us.

I'm not clear how anyone is managing to get a test. We've been refreshing constantly for 2 days & can't get one

Some people are still managing to get tested, but it's really unclear how many at this stage are symptomatic and going untested.

I'm not clear how anyone is managing to get a test. We've been refreshing constantly for 2 days & can't get one

The story is that it's easier to get tested in high risk areas. Does that apply to you?

We got one of the school's meagre supply in the end. No we aren't in a high risk area (or at least not that we know of, given they aren't getting tested). There is a case in a different bubble at the school.

@GreyishDays

How do you know it’s not pubs, *@Torvean32*?

Contact tracing and testing. Wetherspoons have provided some useful information www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/14/wetherspoons-staff-tested-covid-pub-chain-risk

I’m not surprised by that Guardian article the pubs.

Keeping them open with SD measures etc is the best way to go as it avoids more furlough.

Pubs/bars are an issue, due to types of people & behaviours exhibited. These are also the type of people having big house parties. How do we legislate for stupidity though?

DF was contacted by golf club. DF does a weekly shop, goes to golf course for part of his exercise (other is solo cycling) - so he doesn't go anywhere else, you would think, low risk.

A person, has come back from holiday in Spain, not quarantined for 2 weeks and been to the golf course, went in the bar twice - the first time had 4 drinks and went in again at the end and had another 4 drinks. Spreading all their virus. Apparently the individual said he shouldn't drink because he forgets himself and goes round hugging everyone.

So yeah, second wave coming because people can't behave

I don’t think that the staff in the pubs would be the problem though? I’d think that people (after a couple of drinks) mixing too closely with their friends would be.

It's worth bearing in mind that by March, covid had been spreading for quite a while without any restrictions at all - no social distancing, no hygiene measures. It could well have been spreading since December 2019 - so nearly four months. In March it was hard/impossible to get tested unless you were very ill so it's likely that many thousands more people were infected than the official numbers, it could have been millions. To reach anywhere near the same levels again would require people to forget there was a virus and just carry on regardless for months on end, which isn't likely to happen any time soon. There may be an increase in the spread of the infection but it's a bit much to call a person who has a positive test but no symptoms a 'case' isn't it?