Marseille's Covid-19 hospital beds 'close to saturation'

[user1497207191]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54151281

Not looking good is it? We're about 2 weeks behind France.

I wonder if all the covid deniers would like to comment - you know, the ones who were saying the daily rise in infections isn't a problem because hospitalisations and deaths are low. Well, hospitalisations and deaths were low in France too, a couple of weeks ago!

It's not like February.

For one thing, Covid is (slightly) better understood than it was in February. Those who need hospitalisation are less likely to die than they were in March/April. Treatment is better.

Also in February (and March) football matches, concerts, theatres, international travel without restrictions, nightclubs, huge gatherings such as Cheltenham etc were all still in full swing. Now we have social distancing, masks, rule of six, local lockdowns, quarantine after travel and things like theatres and gigs are a long way off. The numbers are very, very unlikely to get as high as they did in the spring (deaths and cases).

Please stop calling for another lockdown. There is very little stomach for it, particularly with Christmas now 100 days away. It'll be mostly futile and will cost jobs and lives.

I know the thread has gone off on a bit of a tangent, but can I just point out that Marseille is in France, but it isn't France.

We are in a another part of the country and things are totally different here.

Large gatherings were (and still are) allowed as long as people adhere to masks and social distancing conventions. A number of our summer events still went ahead, but social distancing was very much in evidence, as were the police who made frequent spot checks and would not have hesitated to shut things down if necessary.

Tourist season is now over and the numbers of infections are beginning to fall again. The PM made a speech on Friday and has basically told people to use their common sense and take some responsibility for their behaviour. Local officials can make decisions about how best to cope with their local area. There are much stricter rules in the big cities than rural areas.

Marseille is no more representative of France than Bradford is of the UK.

Also we had one lockdown, and here we are. You can have as many lockdowns as you like - once restrictions are lifted, cases will go up. Lockdowns don't eradicate viruses and plunging everyone into one every time numbers go up is not sustainable or useful, long-term.

Why "herd immunity" by just letting it rip costs far more lives - just to correct some misconceptions about it

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1305436391707467776.html

Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski (Mathematician/epidemiologist at LSHTM, WellcomeTrust)

I still see the persistent, but incorrect, claim that control measures just delay - rather than reduce - the impact of an epidemic.

A thread on the problem of 'overshoot' ... 1/

This claim seems to arise from a misunderstanding about two related, but different metrics:

the % of people infected during an epidemic,

and the point at which immunity leads to a decline in transmission 2/

In an uncontrolled epidemic, 'herd immunity' is reached at the peak (because R

.

I seem to remember that in around April, Chris Witty said he imagined there would be a cycle of restrictions, and lessening restrictions , then tightening restrictions, and SD til at least the end of the year, but probably for 18 months. At the time that seemed unpalatable (and still isnt pleasant) but 6 months in I can see that is what is happening (whether that includes another full lockdown remains to be seen)

It was stupid to travel this summer. We should have kept borders closed except for necessary travel.
DS's best friend (18) went interrailing this summer, went all over Europe. His last port of call was France. He got back about 2 weeks ago. He should have just finished his quarantine just now. But did he quarantine? Take a guess. He's been out partying since he came home, bar hopping, pub crawling. And his mum's a teacher. So imagine this guy's a super spreader and then his mum takes covid into school and voila! You have the recipe for a local outbreak.

Hopefully, this won't be the case. He's still awaiting his test results. I can only assume he doesn't have covid. But imagine he did have covid.

Haven’t masks been made mandatory in all French secondary schools?

I agree that it doesn’t make a lot of a sense of talk to about restrictions being ‘stricter’ in other European countries. They’re clearly tighter in some ways (mask wearing) and more lax in others (permitted size of social gatherings).

@Redolent

Haven’t masks been made mandatory in all French secondary schools?

I agree that it doesn’t make a lot of a sense of talk to about restrictions being ‘stricter’ in other European countries. They’re clearly tighter in some ways (mask wearing) and more lax in others (permitted size of social gatherings).

... Exactly, stricter in some ways, more relaxed in others Same in Germany, where I live

Ecah country chooses the measures that they think best fit their population demographics, economy, infrastructure, culture, public acceptance etc

Which is exactly why there can be no measuring of where we are in terms of week behind France and Spain because each country has made different decisions as to how it is being dealt with.

Then within each country different areas will be affected in different ways as well

Numbers are still increasing in Belgium. Hospitalisations have doubled in a week. Everyone must wear a mask in public places, including secondary school kids in class. Your household can see 5 other people, the same 5 people, not different ones every day. WFM is still encouraged and the norm.

Our British spirit will fight Corona

Your household can see 5 other people, the same 5 people, not different ones every day.

That is a really big difference to the UK!!

I agree, back in March, with exponential growth we were definitely tracking a couple of weeks behind Italy, France and Spain.

Now we have seen we have all opened up in different ways and infection levels therefore vary. I don’t quite understand why these countries locked down so strictly then went straight to open bars and nightclubs and allow huge gatherings.

It doesn’t look like we will follow that path with the restrictions on huge groups. Plus yes, what is happening in Marseille is not reflective on what is happening across France.

We will see pockets of infections and other areas cases will remain low. It’s a different animal now....

Some people really want a 2nd national lockdown dont they? Are these people made of money?

Also - as others have said, Marseille is not representative of all of France. So why cherry pick one place - use the country as a whole if you are going to constantly doom-monger on these boards

@notevenat20

Your household can see 5 other people, the same 5 people, not different ones every day.

That is a really big difference to the UK!!

And actually makes much more sense. I wonder if this is something the UK have on the shelf for if its needed later.

There would have been more chance of the government financially supporting a larger lockdown, I think, if the furlough scheme hadn't been abused by so many employers and businesses.

@notevenat20

What caused Belgiums levelling off, do you know? Have they imposed extra restrictions?

Yes. They have a rule of 5 and probably other things I don't know about. Restrictions really work.

I think they have a curfew as well, which has been mentioned as a possibility here.

I think watching Italy and Belgium is key. If they can keep infection rates reasonably low after suffering so much early in the year we can learn from them.

He’s an oncologist who was spouting a good deal of misinformation about Covid-19.

Yes, among other things, he tweeted that there would be less than 7,000 covid deaths in the UK, went on TV claiming it would all be over by June, when it wasn't he went on TV in June saying it will all be over by September, he also blocks anyone on twitter who corrects him or disagrees with him. He has also previously said to a parliamentary committee that he was a professor at Imperial when he wasn't (and Imperial had to tell him to stop making that claim, has called the NHS "the last bastion of communism", has been paid to do ads opposing Medicare for all in the US and said that the Lockerbie bomber had 3 months to live which resulted in his early release (he lived for almost 3 years).

It's good to be positive, but not when you do so by giving people false hope or misinformation.

@BigChocFrenzy thanks for the info on "overshoot."

I heard that explained way back in February and it made sense back then. I later googled around the subject to explain it to my DC but couldn't rediscover it.

The nightingale hospitals might as well be potemkine villages

They had a curfew in Antwerp which proved really effective. It's not been rolled out elsewhere yet but I wouldn't be surprised. Testing has been relatively simple and quick here too, but waiting times are going up now the schools are back. 24 hours was the max before. I heard from dc that her friend was tested Sat and doesn't expect result til Thursday. 5 kids from her class are off this week so far. Waiting to hear from the school on test results 😢😷

Oh and you are supposed to SD with your 5 people too. And wear masks if you need to be closer than 1.5 metres in theory.

@Redolent

What I don't understand is people who want to lift all restrictions, citing the need for cancer treatment, routine scans etc, to go back to normal. The filling up of hospital beds with covid patients is completely counterproductive to that goal...

What would you be saying if you or your child had cancer?

People are being simplistic on both sides of the argument.