What is going on in Brazil?

[KenDodd]

Are the public taking their own lockdown measures? Or is covid just going away? Or something else?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

Japan as well?
I don't think they had a lockdown.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/

My brother is in Japan and says there’s a lot of working from home and mask wearing going on.
I think because Japan is a strongly pro-social culture people take measures without being made to.

Is there a culture of hand shaking or kiss when meeting in Japan? I don't think there is. Public transport is very crowded there though as I understand it?

Sweden as well. Its looking to me like the virus plays out with roughly the same trajectory regardless of measures and that strick lockdowns just cause a bounce back of higher cases when they're lifted.

I don't think those things explain the pattern though.

@MaxNormal

Sweden as well. Its looking to me like the virus plays out with roughly the same trajectory regardless of measures and that strick lockdowns just cause a bounce back of higher cases when they're lifted.

I am wondering this too

I live in an area that’s now got restrictions but my neighbouring area which had high infection levels and deaths at the peak now has barely any cases at all.

Good luck with this thread! I dared start one last week using figures from the Worldometer and was told they were highly inaccurate and that you couldn't trust the countries reporting on it (you know,by the experts on here). I'd imagine you'll be told the same soon!

Whoops, sorry wrong thread

I read somewhere that a virus affects in waves, so even if we did nothing we would get to a peak then start to drop off before going back up again. What we do affects how high the peak becomes. Can't find the link and I can't even remember of it was peer reviewed. So this is only a guess.

@KenDodd

Is there a culture of hand shaking or kiss when meeting in Japan? I don't think there is. Public transport is very crowded there though as I understand it?

People bow, which is pretty Covid safe! (Why can’t we start doing that instead of those ridiculous elbow bumps?)

Yes public transport is crowded and people typically spend a long time on it so wfh would have a big effect.

People in Brazil are about the polar opposite to Japan in terms of distancing behaviour.
Its also dropping off in South Africa. One could argue that its due to lockdown measures but the ground reality is such that 90% of the population couldn't and didn't isolate or follow distancing guidelines.

I dared start one last week using figures from the Worldometer and was told they were highly inaccurate and that you couldn't trust the countries reporting on it (you know,by the experts on here). I'd imagine you'll be told the same soon!

That might be true though and might be a factor. I haven't stated any position on this, I don't have one, but even if I did I'd be happy to be proven wrong, on this or anything else.

The shapes of the curves in Japan and Brazil couldn’t be more different, too.

Brazil climbs and stays high for ages. Japan has a bump that is quickly got under control but then it gets out of hand a second time and comes under control again fairly fast .

Probably reflects the fact that as a wealthier country people can afford to stay at home and distance more?

There is a brief article (from 2009) about viral waves here:

www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/pandemic-waves/

The key points of the article (about H1N1) are:

*Based on the pattern of spread for 14 different influenza pandemics over the past 500 years, there is little evidence to support the likelihood of a second or third more lethal wave of H1N1 influenza.

*The term “wave” entered into common use after the influenza pandemic that spread from Asia in 1889. Between 1890 and 1894 there were as many as four annual, seasonal peaks in mortality from flu reported after the main pandemic had passed.

*The 1918 influenza pandemic was thought to have killed 50 million people worldwide. However, there is little evidence that the outbreak started with a first wave of milder illness followed by a second, more deadly wave when the virus mutated into a more transmissible and virulent form.

*There is also little convincing evidence from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics to support the idea that viruses start out relatively mild before turning into more lethal mutations.

Why can’t we start doing that instead of those ridiculous elbow bumps?

I believe they bow with hands in prayer position, maybe the prayer position was seen as problematic? I expect elbow bumping just evolved though without much thought.

There has also been a lot of talk, obviously, about Israel. The analysis this morning suggested that they were now having rheir first wave, which had been deferred due to their initial very early lockdown.

Apparently epidemic curves are different in tropical versus temperate climates which might explain the difference in Brazil and, say, Sweden. In climates like ours respiratory viruses peak during the winter months and then fall back during the summer, whereas in hotter climates there is less of a peak as there is less seasonality. But I should add the caveat that I learned this from a lockdown sceptic video that is doing the rounds so it might not be true as it was pushing an agenda. B

Ignore that random B!

Ontop, apparently flu is seasonal in our climate but all year round in the tropics.

@Layladylay234
While world-o-meter data isn't comparable between different countries, other than in a few known issue countries (Spain for instance) it is usually comparable over time within the same country. This is because while each country reports using different measures and accuracy the vast majority of countries have continued to use the same measure in it's own data throughout the crisis (and the degree to which countries under report their case numbers is unlikely to be substantially changing).

All countries will show different graphs, because there's so many different factors that influence spread. Age, sex, altitude, climate factors, soci-economic factors, obesity and health conditions. That's even before you get to interventions that are put into place.

I think persepsion v Reality is a big thing. The president of Brazil’s is anti lockdown but locally those in charge did go down that route, they mentioned re opening the beach in Rio on the news recently which showed it was closed which isn’t the “Brazil hasn’t lockdown” which I had heard so yes I think they did more than is often thought (true for the us too where 6 out of 7 state school kids are receiving no in person education it’s not the open as normal that is often the narrative when we hear about the us)

I find this fascinating and it frustrates me that this isn't being studied more urgently. Assuming the same behaviours over the past few months then something has caused the epidemic to peak. It's the same with Sweden - nothing to do with population density, care homes etc etc - but assuming the Swedish people have been following the same rules from March to now, why did the curve suddenly drop from June onwards?? There must be some sort of immunity and unknown factors and surely it is paramount that this is looked into! We are putting so many restrictions on life assuming that CV will spread in this exponential curve and make so many people seriously/fatally ill but we don't actually know this will happen! Ferguson's predicted deaths for Sweden just didn't happen, the virus fizzled out to low levels with some basic measures which haven't changed over time.

There was speculation, based on what happened in NY/London, that once 20% of the population (or even as low as 10%) got infected (including asymptomatic cases) that spread dropped dramatically.

Which could apply to pockets of Sweden/Brazil. I don’t know.

Which has interesting implications for lockdowns in that all they do is delay the inevitable.