What is going on in Brazil?

[KenDodd]

Are the public taking their own lockdown measures? Or is covid just going away? Or something else?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

"persistent, but incorrect, claim that control measures just delay - rather than reduce - the impact of an epidemic."

Thread by Mathematician/epidemiologist at LSHTM:

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1305436391707467776

@Layladylay234

Good luck with this thread! I dared start one last week using figures from the Worldometer and was told they were highly inaccurate and that you couldn't trust the countries reporting on it (you know,by the experts on here). I'd imagine you'll be told the same soon!

Well, I am not an expert, but the head of the team at Our World in Data (Oxford University) is and he has frequently given examples of inaccurate data on worldometer to illustrate that it's not a reliable source.

I’m not sure we’re in any position to know yet. I’m also not sure why certain people are so keen on shutting down debate.

Surely it’s important to keep our minds open. We still know so little about how this virus operates.

I thought the first wave was in December, January.

The 2nd and more lethal wave was in March and whilst it has gone down because of Summer and lockdown I thought we were going into the 3rd wave which is less deadly.
Hence the amount of infections not translating into lots of deaths.

Fergus on also said millions would die of vCJD...

Agree, why keep shutting down the debate? Saying the figures are wrong etc. We should be looking at trends and patterns and questioning them. Not even the scientist know what is going on.

It is very interesting to see Sweden on a downward trajectory.
Especially as other countries cases are increasing once they come out of lockdown. Not saying we could have done a Sweden but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t analyse their strategy and results. There may be something to learn from other countries even if their situations are different.

Why can’t we start doing that instead of those ridiculous elbow bumps?

Surely no-one's actually DOING that? I haven't seen anyone, at any rate, I just meet up with people who are capable of saying hello and goodbye.

Brazil's numbers have been all over the place. I'm guessing as they move into summer things will improve in all of South America and probably southern USA as you use less air conditioning.

Covid doesn’t require a lockdown for numbers to fall, as Sweden has shown. Many people in Brazil will have taken measures to reduce the spread.... Moreover, the regional governors have implemented strong measures.... They won’t be blindly following Bolsanaro. Many of those that have been will already have been infected, with this helping to stem infections and bring numbers down.

For me, the point of interest is that Brazil’s numbers have remained so stable for so long, and that the fall comparatively small after such a sustained plateau.

I thought the first wave was in December, January.

I’ve not seen any scientific paper or report suggesting this, and there are papers reporting all sorts of wildly different stuff. It’s something that I don’t even believe maverick scientists believe and can’t be made to fit the data at all, not even with a few wild assumptions thrown in. It seems people may have had Covid earlier than originally thought, but a “first wave” from December to January when deaths were at or below average, there’s nothing to support it.

In fact, I’d go so far to say that the evidence for a first wave of the current COVID-19 in December-January in the U.K. that died out mysteriously in February and then re-emerged in March, is on a par with the evidence for a flat earth.

@Delatron

Agree, why keep shutting down the debate? Saying the figures are wrong etc. We should be looking at trends and patterns and questioning them. Not even the scientist know what is going on.

It is very interesting to see Sweden on a downward trajectory.
Especially as other countries cases are increasing once they come out of lockdown. Not saying we could have done a Sweden but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t analyse their strategy and results. There may be something to learn from other countries even if their situations are different.

This post sums it up perfectly. I hate the certainty people seem to have that if the infection were left to grow now it would ravage the population. Yes it might but equally it might not, noone really knows as a lot of countries put in measures very early. We should all be grateful to Sweden as they do show us what CONSISTENT measures over time do to the curve. Other countries seem to unlock and lock things so frequently it's impossible to see what measures work and what measures don't.

How is pointing out the view of an epidemiologist "shutting down the debate"?

It's just pointing out another aspect of the debate, the issue of overshoot is one which several epidemiologists have raised. That a vaccine may be the only safe and effective way to achieve immunity is hardly an outlier view either. There was also a paper published today which hypothesised that the average length of immunity for Covid-19 acquired via natural infection may only be 1 year, which doesn't bode well for herd immunity via that route.

Saying the figures are wrong etc

Pointing out that worldometer data has been inaccurate in the past isn't shutting down debate either, it's a demonstrable fact.

Places like florida were the same aswell. Comes, goes, comes back a bit and then goes again.

There was speculation, based on what happened in NY/London, that once 20% of the population (or even as low as 10%) got infected (including asymptomatic cases) that spread dropped dramatically.

Given antibody rates in some hotspots are 60%+, a more plausible explanation would be that the 10-20% are those that continue to mix whilst most socially distance, either completely, or enough to avoid infection.

... which is born out by Madrid, which had London/NYC levels of infection, only to see cases climbs rapidly over the past few weeks.

Perhaps Brazil and Japan have developed good early treatment plans?
I know a flu drug was being used in Japan.

Perhaps Brazil and Japan have developed good early treatment plans?
I know a flu drug was being used in Japan.

This guy is great. Explains all about why some countries might have turned the curve without lockdown etc. Really interesting. Esp comparing Sweden to Norway.

It is long, but worth watching.

Perhaps Brazil and Japan have developed good early treatment plans?

Have you seen Brazil’s figures!?

Actually the level of population with antibodies in Madrid has been lower than either in NY or London. NY seems to be the highest at 20-25%, London is 15-18%, Madrid is 11-12%.

english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-06/final-round-of-coronavirus-study-confirms-that-52-of-spanish-population-has-antibodies.html

This guy is great.

Not really. He diminishes all data and information which contradicts his hypothesis. He is cherrypicking data and sources and mixes this with unproven assumptions to fuel his own narrative.

OP, I also find it really interesting to try and understand why some countries have been affected differently to others. This article was published in May, so it's not based on up to date figures, but I still found it a really interesting read:

www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html

@wintertravel1980

Thank you. I had thought Madrid’s levels were higher.

@MaxNormal

Sweden as well. Its looking to me like the virus plays out with roughly the same trajectory regardless of measures and that strick lockdowns just cause a bounce back of higher cases when they're lifted.

There was a really interesting article in the NY times about this