To think a second lockdown will not happen even if cases explode

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

A second lockdown is not economically feasible. Businesses that barely survived the first one will be killed off. The economy would collapse.

On top of that disruption from No Deal and a second lockdown would push things to the brink. I’m not a sociologist but a second lockdown would likely cause some form of social unrest.

I just don’t see it happening does anyone agree?

I think the government wants to avoid one at almost all costs. It'd have to get pretty bad for them to do it. For the reasons you say plus they'd have to risk people just not complying too. I think lots of people just wouldn't go along with it a second time.

It's not what they want but they have made it clear it could happen again

What happens when the hospitals are full? When the french blockade the ports because they don't want truckers importing infections from the UK?

My feeling is that a small majority of the public would strongly support a very strict lockdown to prevent another peak like we had in April. Maybe 15% would mildly support it & 15% would be neutral, so easily 81% would not oppose a strict lockdown if numbers were looking like late March again.

So I disagree with OP.

I think its all about nhs capacity. I think a lot of work has gone on to increase capacity (lots of little covid wards not the nightingale stuff) and improve treatments so i think that hopital admissions would have to go up a lot.

Agree, it's on NHS

It struggles with flu, no one can see a doctor etc. If it turns biblical..

The problem with a 2nd lockdown is youre basically accepting it'll never end. We'll lock down, cases down, ease up, cases up, lockdown, cases down etc. The govt would essentially be saying this is the new normal - sky months of open and closed

It would need to be bad with a risk of the nhs being over whelmed so highly unlikely

However there is a small minority who desperately want it and didn’t wish the last one to end.

Matt Hancock said the other day that they couldn’t guarantee there won’t be another lockdown.

If cases rise, particularly in the local area you are in people will lockdown naturally if they can.

I think part/most of the reason the government will not go second full-fat lockdown is that they don't want to finance it.

But consumer fear creates recession by itself. So best to try and keep infection rate down for many reasons, and at least one of those reasons apply to every household.

I think they will do everything they can to avoid it

But if cases start shooting up (R of 2ish) in many places across the country, then there won’t really be any choice. NHS has no slack in the winter anyhow, and the risk of it being overwhelmed will need to be averted, by drastic measures if the sort of thing announced yesterday is either insufficient or simply if too many people play fast and loose with it

We would be more fucked economically if a virus ran unchecked through the population. It's really not that difficult to understand, the country could not cope if masses of the population were off sick, police, teachers, air traffic, fire brigade, doctors/medics/ambulance, council, civil service, road traffic, street cleansing, army, garages, shop staff the list is endless. Only a tiny percentage so far have had the virus plus we don't know if people can catch it again. No one knows if there will be another lockdown, if cases rise and overwhelm the NHS, quite possibly, if cases rise and overwhelm the country then most probably. Equally quite possible that we will maintain some kind of local hokey cokey. Nobody knows, not mumsnet and not Boris.

If cases rise, particularly in the local area you are in people will lockdown naturally if they can.

I think the government are banking on this. I can’t remember the exact stat but don’t they need 60% of people to lockdown to break the chain of infection?

I can't get my head around it all. Flu infections and deaths have exceeded Covid infections and deaths for the last few weeks. Why are we not fizzing about that?

I think the most vulnerable and elderly will be advised to isolate/sheild to protect themselves. I think restrictions will be for households to not meet anyone else. I fear the under 30's or 40's will be told to support the country through it by working and possibly becoming the herd.

If people did as they were asked then this could be controlled and balanced. But we are all fed up, the government has lost the confidence of the people.

The scientists are telling us were at a critical point. The power really is in our hands!

They certainly wouldn’t get the same buy in from the public a second time around...

There will be another lockdown around October/November. I can't believe how naive people are being, the government doesn't care about the economy. The world is changing fast and there will be no 'back to normal'.

@loveisagirlnameddaisy

I can't get my head around it all. Flu infections and deaths have exceeded Covid infections and deaths for the last few weeks. Why are we not fizzing about that?

Can you look in the source of the numbers of flu deaths (as the weekly flu reports haven't yet started for the 20/21 season)?

This article is why tabloid claims about flu numbers are wrong:

fullfact.org/health/flu-covid-deaths/

I think the most vulnerable and elderly will be advised to isolate/sheild to protect themselves. I think restrictions will be for households to not meet anyone else. I fear the under 30's or 40's will be told to support the country through it by working and possibly becoming the herd

I think you are right. Those past retirement will be encouraged to isolate. I think a lot are doing this already (my fit and health relatives who are 70+ are isolating).

I’ve kind of resigned myself to catching it. I’m just hoping I don’t lose my health or my job because of it.

I think we will have mini lockdowns in towns etc and try and get through to spring like that.

Is fullfact.org still run by the Tory party donor bloke?

Thanks @SexTrainGlue I'll take a look at that. I admit I glanced at the headlines and took it as read.

That said, we're nowhere near where we were in early Spring with the death rate. Sure, infections are high but deaths are the focus, aren't they? Until we have a vaccine, infections are impossible to prevent.

I agree. The government really clearly don't want to pay for it, and in order to have any teeth a lockdown has to allow for the majority of people to be able to stay at home and have enough money to do so. So it won't happen. Please note this isn't an argument to say one will or won't be objectively the best solution, just that it isn't going to happen. They will go for local lockdowns instead.

It might be handy around January/Brexit time if we are all locked up at home and protesting is a criminal offence.

@username108

There will be another lockdown around October/November. I can't believe how naive people are being, the government doesn't care about the economy. The world is changing fast and there will be no 'back to normal'.

Sorry @username108 you are aware that this is a TORY government? ALL they care about is the economy.

There won't be another lockdown

If the cases rise so much that the NHS starts to crack under the strain they'll have to lock down again.