So those who are predicting a big second wave?

[BabyLlamaZen]

when do you reckon it's going to hit? Ideally epidemiologists' and scientists' views?

For those who want to hop on just to tell me I'm crazy and negative then that's charming but please save the swearing and telling me in stupid for another thread. I KNOW there is chance there won't be one. I am thinking worst case scenario so I can plan and be OK in all scenarios. If it's all great then of course I will be happy anyway!

Last reports I read say around November there will probably be heavy distancing measures. Is this still the prediction? It concerns me that it is only the beginning of September and cases are rising.

Boris says social distancing will end in November and we can all have a family Christmas. So probably then.

I don't pretend to know anything about it but my mums cancer nurse told us that out hospital is still being rejigged for an expected wave begining of January. They were originally told late October. This was the middle of July that she said this though so could be a different story now

200+ schools with cases already so depending on actions taken maybe not long at all. Thats after less than a week with lots of schools not back yet.

Hard to say, the do called spike now is only relative to June when testing became available to all, its estimated that in late March there could have been 100,000 cases but none of us were tested, we are two who had symptoms but no proof we had it.

Numbers will fluctuate but the most vulnerable are now socially distancing so I don't expect hospitals to fill up like in April

I think it will really get going in October, so peak at or straight after Christmas/New Year.

Predictions were originally Oct/Nov time and again in January and March.

Ideally epidemiologists' and scientists' views?

How many do you think are frequenting Mumsnet at the moment?

@Sassy306

I don't pretend to know anything about it but my mums cancer nurse told us that out hospital is still being rejigged for an expected wave begining of January. They were originally told late October. This was the middle of July that she said this though so could be a different story now

The hospital where my husband works is preparing for November. Not saying that's when it will be happening but they intend to be prepared.

Keepdistance where do find out how many schools with cases?
My ds secondary already has whole of sixth form isolating

My NHS Trust have been expecting a second surge in Sept/Oct for some time.

I think it’s hard to say what’s going to happen but it’s certainly possible it’s starting to surge again now.

Was it Israel that did similar to us? Opened restaurants, schools etc quickly and the shit hit the fan.

I think it will be this year anytime from October because of flu season and the symptoms being very similar when mild. We already know even with flu people drag themselves out of their homes.

The outbreaks in schools show that some adults are still clueless about infectious diseases, and how many have sent in their kids because they have to work thus spreading further.

Yes, I think we will have a second wave but not as bad as the first. I think they will try and keep as many things as possible open. I’m not sure if this is true but I heard the optimum temperature for the virus is 4 degrees so can’t see how it won’t spread in winter, it’s going to be in general circulation.

Google ‘twitter tory fibs’ to see number of schools affected. Was 331 at last update.

I don’t know, but I do know that France is about 4 weeks ahead of us so that might give us warning. They are not seeing a big increase in deaths yet. So definitely not October.

On the other hand Spain have got numbers back down quite dramatically so it isn’t inevitable.

331 UK Schools with Coronavirus infections among their School Populations:

• 179 England
• 99 Scotland
• 28 N. Ireland
• 25 Wales

Source: My compilation of local news reports, NHS Trust updates & School Websites.

Taken from twitter

From the same torylies twitter account

At least one third (108) of the 331 schools so far infected with Coronavirus are Primary Schools.

Our Westminster Politicians lied when they told us Primary Schools were ‘completely safe’.

Schools & colleges are up & running, the pressure is on to return to the office. Give it 4 more weeks for community spread, and for younger people to pass it to their older relatives.
I think we'll see hospital admissions rise from early November although I hope I'm wrong.

On the positive side, Treatments are better, steroids, early treatment for blood clots etc so the mortality rate should be lower.

The nightingale hospital was never needed in the end was it so maybe it wont be as bad as thiight but I read Jan.

November to December isnt that cold it's more after its gets really cold etc

October half term I reckon if not before

I expect Boris will announce a severe nationwide lockdown at 10pm on 24 December 2020.

but the most vulnerable are now socially distancing

This isn’t true any more. With the re-opening of schools a lot of vulnerable people are now back learning in school, teaching in school, or picking kids up from school.

I haven't found the document on which this BBC article is based

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53954492

It seems to be suggesting November, but without the source document it's hard to be sure if that's the right inference.

And of course a 'reasonable worst case' document is a planning tool, not a prediction

@peakotter

I don’t know, but I do know that France is about 4 weeks ahead of us so that might give us warning. They are not seeing a big increase in deaths yet. So definitely not October.

On the other hand Spain have got numbers back down quite dramatically so it isn’t inevitable.

well, last night on the news the hospital in Marseille said they had 70 new corona virus patients a day being admitted, 4 to ICU. Their rates among young people went up 2-3 weeks ago, no deaths, now suddenly the hospital admissions have followed.

I think we at the beginning, it is going round the young people and then it will spread among the rets of the population, and at that point the hospitalisations will happen.

Matt Hancock wasn't kidding when hesaid stay at home and save your Granny

@PinkMacaron
If he really wanted to piss people off I’d expect it to be 30th December 2020 😂😂

@peakotter I'm sure spain had 9000 cases yesterday. Isn't that loads?