So those who are predicting a big second wave?

[BabyLlamaZen]

when do you reckon it's going to hit? Ideally epidemiologists' and scientists' views?

For those who want to hop on just to tell me I'm crazy and negative then that's charming but please save the swearing and telling me in stupid for another thread. I KNOW there is chance there won't be one. I am thinking worst case scenario so I can plan and be OK in all scenarios. If it's all great then of course I will be happy anyway!

Last reports I read say around November there will probably be heavy distancing measures. Is this still the prediction? It concerns me that it is only the beginning of September and cases are rising.

OP I get where you're coming from but absolutely no one can answer this accurately. No one. It's all guesses, some of them educated guesses, some just based on fear. Many hospitals were preparing for a spike in October, flu season is at it's worst Dec- Jan so those are two points to be aware of but really if anyone could answer you, they'd be in a position to make a lot of money. I think the uncertainty is highly stressful so I'm trying to focus on one day at a time

I think this is the start of the second wave .

but the most vulnerable are now socially distancing

This isn’t true any more. With the re-opening of schools a lot of vulnerable people are now back learning in school, teaching in school, or picking kids up from school.

Exactly - 1/4 of the staff at ds's small primary were shielding, but now all back at work in tightly packed clasdrooms.

@stoptheworldiwant2getoff yes, Spain’s data is weird and jumping around a lot. Not sure what is going on. But their 7day average is 4000 now compared to 7000 two weeks ago so it seems to be going down.

but the most vulnerable are now socially distancing

Everyone is supposed to be socially distancing, not just us vulnerable.

@canigooutyet

but the most vulnerable are now socially distancing

Everyone is supposed to be socially distancing, not just us vulnerable.

Not if you’re in a school. Hundreds of kids not socially distancing from each other at all.

Of course there will be infections detected in children attending schools. The issue is whether there is significant spread between pupils in the school environment.

It is entirely possible that it will turn out that there is spread in schools but cases identified in a few hundred schools doesn't establish this.

The issue is whether there is significant spread between pupils in the school environment.

What magic will present this?

November/December. Feels like it did in March, some gaily tripping off to the races and other sporting fixtures, laughing on camera as they used the sanitisers, while others were already distancing.
Too many people have already forgotten how many lost their lives just doing their job in their clamour for their essential overseas holiday.
Anyone who thinks they can carry on regardless atm is living in cloud cuckoo land.
6 months more patience and consideration for others from us all is probably all it will take.
Too much to ask, it seems.

@Floralbean

Ideally epidemiologists' and scientists' views?

How many do you think are frequenting Mumsnet at the moment?

This made me laugh 😂

After half term as the level of population movement will drastically increase during half term.

I bloody hope not I really do not think I can mentally and physically cope with looking after another wave of coronavirus patients at my hospital.
So far I have not seen any new cases where I work.
As it is my family refuse to let me spend Christmas with them because they are so worried they will catch it from me so it's just me and the cat on our own this year while they are all celebrating together.

@madcatladyforever

@noblegiraffe yea I know. Talk about been chucked under a steam roller never mind a bus. It's all kicking off on the school group because there's no SD. Thankfully, there are also clued up parents saying what did you expect? Didn't you bother to read any info from the school etc? (paraphrasing, not all are as polite)

@madcatladyforever their loss not yours.
I am a bitch and would tell them excellent, and drop in something about not seeing them when they are ill, don't want to pass their shit onto the patients. (I don't like my family, binned them off years ago)

@PinkMacaron

I expect Boris will announce a severe nationwide lockdown at 10pm on 24 December 2020.

That's basically what he did just before Eid, so it's possible. I guess he tell us if we do celebrate Christmas together we will 'kill granny'

"Ideally epidemiologists' and scientists' views?"

How many do you think are frequenting Mumsnet at the moment?

Well, there's me. Wasting time on MN since my employer is in crisis due to the Control Measures so my hours were slashed. Lots of us in science response jobs are on fragile contracts right now. No shortage of volunteer work to do, of course.

No epidemiologist can say when peak will be because it depends on policy decisions, and we don't set policy or make the decisions. At moment there isn't a known terrible influenza on horizon to complicate things and most people are actually keeping to SD measures so transmission to the very vulnerable continues to be low. All that could change, but in meantime, a big national Lockdown is unlikely.

SAGE report supposedly leaked to NewsNight was a revision of the Royal Academy of Sciences "just about plausible but very unlikely and bad" scenario. iirc, they predicted March 2021 = pinnacle of the "very bad but still plausible" scenario in next year. While blindfolded, you could stick a drawing pin in the calendar instead, if you like.

Everywhere (even Sweden and S.Korea) is dipping in and out of control measures as and when.

Armchair public health person agrees wholeheartedly with @MedSchoolRat

But, my "oh fuck" scenario is an overwhelmed ICU, which I think could come about from a covid and other bad flu combo - but with possible confounders on strain weakening/hard winter weather/hygiene measures/random policy
shenanigans meaning it might not land.