To think cases are rising because of ' risky' places being open more than homes mixing?

[DidSheReallySayThat20]

Saw a fb post. Basically saying so there's been rammed restaurants, pubs etc with the EOTHO scheme.
Soft play open
Theme parks etc
Which has been fine
we can still go to those places but not have a child's party of say 6 kids and 2 adults for example. ( well as of Monday) . So we're safe till then! The virus won't get us for the next 5 days

I kind of get their point . I visited a local theme park in July and it was rammed. OK so not as much as pre covid but absolutely no distancing at all. And despite hand gel in loads of locations. I didn't personally see much getting used as I would expect. And that was prior to summer holidays officaily starting

A friend works at the local soft play., they close for 2 hours between sessions.
She said they literally wipe the tables and chairs and then relax. When i asked if they clean the equipment she said ' nah', we just sign the paperwork to say we do. The boss said as long as a paper trail that's fine as it's too much hassle! And to enjoy the extra ' breaks'

I'm starting to think this is all a bit nuts tbh.

AIBU to think cases are rising because of ' risky' places being open more than homes mixing

That’s not what the scientists have found. Public health track cases to find where there infected and it’s in houses.

Cases are rising because people are socialising. Whether in the home or theme parks. The scale of socialising is the problem. People are also breaking guidance on what they should do. There is a need to reduce the opportunities for people to catch or spread the virus.

A choice has to be made on the activities that are restricted. They have picked the one that does least damage to the economy, business jobs and incomes.

The law has been strengthened to give the police powers to intervene when people break the law and organise parties and events for big groups of people.

I think you are more likely to catch / spread covid during a multi generational gathering at home . You'll be spending longer with the same people and more likely to kiss / hug etc.
In theme parks you will literally just be walking past people or sitting socially distanced for less than 10 mins.
In public places now staff are cleaning toilets at regular intervals and anti bac gel all over the place .
Plus , I guess the fact is that the whole country cannot be out of work . I know people scoff at this but homelessness and poverty is real .

I have been wondering about the blame directed at "the young" being responsible for the rise in infections...
The numbers show that a high proportion of positive tests are in their late teens and twenties. The conclusion has been made that this is because the young are irresponsible and breaking the rules. I am sure that at least a few of them are. However...

what if most of them are becoming infected through doing things that are perfectly allowed now?

This age group is more likely to use public transport (allowed). They are perhaps more likely to have returned to work (encouraged) and more likely to make use of the EOTHO scheme (incentivised).
They are also more likely to share housing with several other adults so more affected by the behaviour of non-family members.

It would be good to see data broken down by age for the take up of the eat out scheme, public transport use, and working outside the home. I suspect it would confirm that this age group is more likely to be doing those things (which are all allowed or encouraged!)

By blaming them for "breaking the rules" it not only risks unfairly vilifying a whole age group, it also risks missing an opportunity to assess the effect of easing restrictions....

For example, if (hypothetically) schools opening leads to an increase in cases among parents, will this be blamed on "parents are breaking the rules"? Maybe the news reports will be accompanied by a stock images of mums drinking white wine together or something.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

Coronavirus: Five reasons why rise in cases is not all it seems

That’s not what the scientists have found. Public health track cases to find where there infected and it’s in houses

I imagine it is easier to track cases that have been spread in houses where everyone knows each other than from other places which will distort this data somewhat. I am not saying its not true, just that it might not be quite as clear cut...

When the source of someone's infection is not known, how would this be considered in the comparison?

@SquishySquirmy I agree - I’m in that age group and haven’t seen any vulnerable family/friends since before Covid, so I have been taking full advantage of EOTHO, using public transport etc. within the rules (or my understanding of them - as they change so often!) I also know a lot of people my age who have gone on holidays often to places where a quarantine has subsequently been imposed, so I think there has likely been a lot of asymptomatic spread amongst our age group who have been meeting up with many different small groups of friends (within the rules) and spreading it unwittingly and now it has reached a larger number of the population so is more noticeable.

I was listening to Matt Hancock on R4 this morning and he said that it's people socialising that is driving the increase, not them going to work or doing anything else. Look, I think we all know what's driving the increase, don't we? It's pubs, bars and house parties. Teens and twenty-somethings and certain sectors of society are not bothering to SD and you add in drinks and the fact that people haven't seen much of each other for months and you've got a problem. The govt doesn't want to close down the hospitality sector, because of economics, and it can't properly police groups meeting in private homes. It is appealing to community-mindedness, but there are masses of people who don't have a community-minded cell in their bodies. They literally don't give a shit - they're 'I'm alright Jack' (until they need an ambulance and then they want a gold-star service) and that's that.

We used the EOTHO and everywhere we went was socially distanced and very clean and all measures in place. I have seen people on facebook meeting up with their friends and having house parties with numerous people from different houses all gathering for selfies etc. I think there are numerous reasons infections are rising, some people are being irresponsible whether it's in homes or anywhere else. Like PP said, at a theme park you will probably walk past someone else and that's it. If you're socialising for hours with a large group in your house it may be riskier.

In August the govt told people to go to the pub, get the economy moving. In September, they are 'blaming' people for going to the pub! It was obvious that once people start drinking, they won't be socially distancing.
I think it's young people who are more likely to go to pubs and drink too much tbh, rather than go to a SD restaurant. Also, in Wales we are not made to wear masks in shops, so that probably doesn't help. People have been allowed/encouraged to forget that this is still a serious situation.

It’s not just tracking cases back to home gatherings being easier, they genetically analyse every case now and it is just a fact that transmission in the home is more frequent than transmission elsewhere.

(Having said that I would not personally go near a pub or gym any time soon.)

Thank you. Yes I get that tracking when mixed in a household is easier. If godforbid I caught it. I would know who I've been with and what day etc.

I used the eat out scheme once.. For a birthday meal.. There were 8 of us.
3 of which were in my bubble. Therw was a number to text with details for the track and trace. We were there maybe an hour and a half?
3 of 5 the others said, no I'm not being 'spied on by the gov' never have never will.
I personally don't know how various places do the trace thing but how many would not text the number or whatever

Pubs and bars are allowed. House parties aren't. I am not sure it is right to conflate the two. True we can't police what goes on in private homes so easily but we DO have more control over what happens in public spaces and businesses.
If social distancing cannot be maintained in pubs and bars, and if this is driving the increase, then these should be shut down.

Fwiw when I went to the theme park. Primarily aimed at younger kids.
The normal rails to queue that would be waist height. Had larger taller barriers with a netting.. So was like tunnelled?
The queue with shortest time was 20 min up to an hour!

I was listening to Matt Hancock on R4 this morning and he said that it's people socialising that is driving the increase, not them going to work or doing anything else

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064339
Much has been made of the fact these are the groups going out socialising, although it is also noticeable that the highest rates are spread across much of the working age population - many of whom will have to leave their home to make a living.

He also seem to be blaming the public for the entirely predicatble increase in test demands - more people on public tranport, work and schools time of year more people get colds cuased by otehr viruses and many place playing safe and wanting negtaive test results before allowing pupils and workers back. Clearly not a lack of palnning but a section of the public fault.

In our family its the retired members doing meals and holidays who groups have started back as they don't have to worry about track and trace catching them - no loss of income or educational access concerns.

There will be some outbreaks in pubs, etc, but I'd say people are much more likely to breach social distancing in their own home. At least in (most) pubs there's a bit of social stigma attached to hugging strangers and telling them they're your best mate.

@PurpleDaisies

AIBU to think cases are rising because of ' risky' places being open more than homes mixing

That’s not what the scientists have found. Public health track cases to find where there infected and it’s in houses.

Where is the evidence for this? I've heard the government say it, but never seen any data. Does it really cover gardens too?

And how do we know it's not skewed? Track and track are more likely to successfully contact your close friends who you had round for a drink - you can provide their phone number and address - than the random woman on the next table at the pub. They'll never find out who she was and whether she caught covid.

So unless they are very careful about analysing their data, it will disproportionately count transmission within houses.

@nibdedibble

It’s not just tracking cases back to home gatherings being easier, they genetically analyse every case now and it is just a fact that transmission in the home is more frequent than transmission elsewhere.

(Having said that I would not personally go near a pub or gym any time soon.)

It was given as a reason Wales delayed households mixing at one point.

I think China also took infected household members to treatment centers to avoid infecting rest of household - not that I'm avodcating for that here but it does suggest house hold transmission has always been a big concern.

Though in Burnley I think they've gone back hospitality industry being take out only - so clearly there's some concerns about mixing in those places.

@nibdedibble

It’s not just tracking cases back to home gatherings being easier, they genetically analyse every case now and it is just a fact that transmission in the home is more frequent than transmission elsewhere.

(Having said that I would not personally go near a pub or gym any time soon.)

Could you link to more info about the genetic tracking?

Why do we keep using the word blame. It is what it is. We need to know what is happening and how it is happening.

Fact of the matter is that the rise is within a certain element of the population.

We were told that we were at the limits and not to push those limits. I would say a lot of people nudged them and some rammed straight through them. It’s hardly rocket science to work out that a 50 year old will spend limited time partying and socialising.

The numbers show that a high proportion of positive tests are in their late teens and twenties. The conclusion has been made that this is because the young are irresponsible and breaking the rules

They are. DD's Instagram has been full (for weeks) of pictures of her classmates getting together with other kids from other schools, at house parties. 30 odd youngsters hugging, kissing, dancing, drinking etc etc.

My question is what the hell are the parents doing allowing these gatherings? These are 17/18 year olds..... some parental responsibility is definitely required.

It's really hard to stop kids from meeting their friends when they see everyone else carrying on like there's no problem. It was much easier in lockdown simply because everyone was in the same boat.
Also teens are at school now with each other, so how can parents say that they can't hang out at the weekend?
It has to be something that adults do and then kids (and teens) follow.
My DC don't see why they shouldn't see their mates when all the shopping centres are mostly back to normal and the pubs are open.

Rise in infections potentially due to people returning from holiday almost like a repeat of Feb/March. Cases in Spain higher for some time which is now starting to be seen in the UK.

The gov only gives a shit about us spending our money for us.
Socialising in our homes doesn't cost much, a bit extra in the supermarket - which are doing really well anyway.

I drive to work and don't ever stop to buy lunch/coffee (pre-Covid I did the same).

I'm amazed the gov hasn't ordered me to get the train instead and pass a minimum of 3 prets on my way to work.

I'm not a fucking puppet, being told when and where to spend my salary by this government. I'm ok with the 6 rule, I've broken it a couple of times with my relatives and with friends at the pub.

I guess one of us with have to sit in the car and take it it turn to come into my house when they come round for a meal? A bit ridiculous, not likely to happen, the rule-breakers will carry on and so will the rule abiders.

I hate the way the gov is telling us to go back to work (I've always worked through lockdown) and school and restaurants and pubs etc, then tells us off when we do!