The situation in Birmingham

[Redolent]

It’s been looking very worrying in Birmingham over the last few days. As of today it’s got the 3rd highest number of cases per 100k, with 65.1 (only Bolton and Bradford are ahead). On Friday it was number 17 in the Local Authority list so a very steep rise.

Does anyone know if there’s a specific cluster triggering this?

It looks to be well spread out over all parts of Birmingham if you check the map
www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076
My son is in Birmingham and there was a cluster where he lives, of about 56 due to a hostel outbreak.
It did seem to go down a week or two ago but is rising sharply again

@Redolent the MSOA map linked by Realitea is probably the best indicator at the moment, but you're right cases in Brum have pretty much doubled in a week.

The LSOA spreadsheet also accessible from the dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#cases-by-lower-super-output-area-lsoa will give a lower level of detail again but it is only updated weekly (on a Thursday) so not a lot of good given how fast the situation is moving.

It is concerning. Every week I expect a local lockdown. Wondering if the hostel outbreak saw the figures rise so steeply?

The way things ae going we'll need local lockdowns everywhere!

Birmingham, Middlesbrough, London...
I looked up London's cases earlier. Add together the individual boroughs (London is actually quite small size wise and very interconnected) and London actually has a higher number of cases than most local lockdown areas (possibly all).

Just read the rate is 62 in 100,000 now.

The problem is that the arcgis map is so out of date. Today it will show positive tests for the week 28 Aug to 4 Sept, when it would be helpful to know what the situation was yesterday, certainly at the weekend.

In our area we had 3 days of exponential rise, from 1, to 2, to 4, to 16. By the time we found out about it we were back down to between 0 and 3 cases each day.

The government table showing M/LSOA figures is more up to date but it covers a wide area in many cases.

I'm in Bolton ,they think it was house holds mixing and people not social distancing here ,which from what I have seen doesn't surprise me ,also they think someone coming off holiday and not quarantining and then going on a pub crawl also contributed

I'm bumping this as Birmingham now has the second highest 7 day CV rate after Bolton, moving ftom 30 in 100,000 cases to 80 in 100,000 within a week.

Do you think Birmingham and surrounding areas faces lockdown next week?

Link www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/live-updates-birmingham-brink-lockdown-18895754

Sorry, it was 32 and is now 85.

Could it be more tests are being done in Birmingham than elsewhere?

I'd like to know how many tests are being done across the UK and whether some areas are testing more than others.

London isn’t on the top 10 list though, not yet anyway

Birmingham 151 839 1st
Leeds 88 470 2nd
Bradford 57 410 3rd
Bolton 55 389 4th
Manchester 65 356 5th
Liverpool 55 250 6th
Sheffield 36 203 7th
Leicester 34 195 8th
Kirklees 28 189 9th
Wirral 20 183 10th

But how much testing is happening in London? No test = no case. Bear in mind, with the reported shortage of tests particularly home ones, that more Londoners than elsewhere don't or can't drive.

Also, add up all the London boroughs. That will give a clearer picture. London is extremely interconnected. It's a single city that is fairly small geographical size wise.

I wonder the same about the north east. Cases are rising in places like Gateshead, Sunderland, and Middlesbrough, but little attention is being given to these areas. I hope people there are getting access to testing when needed.

From Tuesday, it is now illegal to socialise outside your household in Birmingham

@SheepandCow

Could it be more tests are being done in Birmingham than elsewhere?

I'd like to know how many tests are being done across the UK and whether some areas are testing more than others.

I don't think so based on what I've heard.

I just think largest city outside London, lots of multi generational living and busy inner city areas. High pockets of deprivation.

@Redolent

From Tuesday, it is now illegal to socialise outside your household in Birmingham

It's causing lots of confusion already!

To the PP questioning why London hasn't been locked down it's neither small geographically nor interconnected. A spike in cases in Lambeth will have little to no impact on Richmond for example.

Why would you add up London boroughs? You should just average them.......

@Puppylucky

To the PP questioning why London hasn't been locked down it's neither small geographically nor interconnected. A spike in cases in Lambeth will have little to no impact on Richmond for example.

That's 9.8 miles according to Maps Yet Northfield to Mere Green, for example is 17miles, yet they are both under restrictions.

Though I admit my geography around London is crap, so I guess I might be missing the point, sorry.

London was hit hard early on. As a result there are significant numbers of people with antibodies, that will slow the spread. Hospitals there have not been seeing the increases in cases that are happening elsewhere.

Many people are, quite sensibly, ignoring the government's attempts to force them back to the office. Therefore the spread from one part of London to another may be pretty limited.

Birmingham was hit hard too and hoping the same would apply.
However, I know of a number who have had to go back to the city centre and this may be the difference?

@Puppylucky

To the PP questioning why London hasn't been locked down it's neither small geographically nor interconnected. A spike in cases in Lambeth will have little to no impact on Richmond for example.

It is small. Look on a map. And yes it is very interconnected. A friend used to live on a road where one half was in one borough, the other a different borough. One tube or train stop takes you into another borough. Children might travel (on by public transport) through three or four boroughs just to get to school. Same with people going to work - often on the tube which goes across London.

I don't know why London's cases are apparently low. It might be genuine. It was hit so badly, with over 6,000 deaths, so perhaps people are being taking more precautions. Or it could be a low amount of testing going on there. Perhaps also undiagnosed cases in hospitals being wrongly attributed to 'summer flu', strokes, or heart attacks.

Knowing how many tests are being done in London (and elsewhere) would help.

It's definitely not down to immunity. It was estimated at only about 15% of London, and experts believe immunity doesn't last longer than a few months.

I just think largest city outside London, lots of multi generational living and busy inner city areas. High pockets of deprivation.
It is apparently spreading amongst the white population so less likely to be multi- generational living.

spread among white population probably pubs.

London's virus levels had fallen so much that some hospitals had no cases for weeks, Birmingham never dropped to that level.