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To think there won't be another national lockdown?

81 replies

makingbacon · 04/09/2020 20:51

I just cannot see another national lockdown happening, even in the event of an uptick in deaths.

I don't think the nation will cope economically (furlough costs, business uncertainty etc), but I also don't think people will follow the rules. After the Dominic Cummings thing I know I won't be sticking to lockdown second time around. I really really struggled with two toddlers in a flat the first time around.

Or am I wrong and we will definitely have another national lockdown over winter?

OP posts:
Pixel77 · 05/09/2020 10:07

No, I think they will continue with this local approach. It might depend how many areas need that as it seems to be increasing.

Will we get to the stage where more towns and cities are in than out? There could be a real divide this winter. Possibly between rural and town / city and rich and poor would be my guess and concern.

OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer · 05/09/2020 10:09

In addition the UK economy cannot survive a national lockdown so again this will not happen for livelihood reasons.

Yep. This is the bottom line. There isn't going to be another full national lockdown, because that requires a substantial chunk of people to be paid to stay at home. The government clearly don't want to do this, so it isn't going to happen.

TheGreatWave · 05/09/2020 10:18

No won't happen, for starters they no longer have the fear level on a large enough scale like they did last time, and they needed that to get people to comply.

Scottishgirl85 · 05/09/2020 10:19

No, there will not be another one. It cannot be justified on any level. Elderly and vulnerable may be asked to isolate again over winter, and of course local lockdowns, but the rest of us need to live our lives, recover the economy, receive an education for our children and proper healthcare. We need to live alongside this virus until we have a vaccine, which will hopefully come within 6-9 months, being rolled out in priority order.

OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer · 05/09/2020 10:30

@TheGreatWave

No won't happen, for starters they no longer have the fear level on a large enough scale like they did last time, and they needed that to get people to comply.
Yeah, I just don't think enough people are sufficiently afraid now. There really was a pretty high level of compliance for the first couple of months, and that was only achieved through a combination of genuine fear and also enough of the population not needing to leave the house to earn money. You need both of those ingredients to get such a co-operative population. We no longer do.

The furlough scheme is going to be over soon, and the Cummings situation did a shit all over trust levels. Some posters clearly find this fact very unpalatable, but what they need to remember is it doesn't matter whether they consider it illogical or unreasonable for people to use Cummings as a reason not to comply. It only matters that it's happening.

Vinoonasunnyday · 05/09/2020 10:35

Bbc reporting today that testing has increased 20% in last 4 weeks with only 0.4% increase in positivity

Vast majority under 30 and asymptomatic - people who they have found and who would never have been tested earlier

Hosp admissions have actually gone down so this fear of second wave is unjustified

Now saying positive tests can be not only false but they’re picking up old infections from months ago and that they won’t even be infectious at that point

HelloMissus · 05/09/2020 10:42

There would have to be a huge outbreak to justify it.
Because the government would have to pay for it and also be sure that people would (largely) comply.
Ordering lock down without furlough and knowing that the majority, or even a sizeable minority won’t comply just makes those in power look weak.

OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer · 05/09/2020 10:58

That's an interesting point about looking weak. I'd agree, the fear of looking impotent in the face of widespread non-compliance is a powerful incentive for the government to avoid another full lockdown.

HelloMissus · 05/09/2020 11:16

openlygay indeed.
Lockdown was largely adhered to in the U.K. Despite hysterical posts about spotting someone walking their dog twice a day or daring to play badminton in a park, most people stayed home.
With furlough and plenty of good will from employers few had to go to work. And with schools, universities and all entertainment shut down, we stuck largely to what government wanted. A communal piece of action.

But going forward, is that repeatable?
Probably not.
So would government risk the version where we don’t comply?

TheKeatingFive · 05/09/2020 11:19

So would government risk the version where we don’t comply?

Unless they’re prepared to get the army out to enforce, which I doubt.

dollypartonscoat · 05/09/2020 11:20

Ha, my mum can't go into her next door neighbours garden. But they work in close proximity to each other with no social distancing less than a mile away.

Whereas a high percentage of people were complying in March, it's flipped thanks to inconsistencies like this

HelloMissus · 05/09/2020 11:28

TheKeatingFive I think trying to employ the army would just make matters worse.
The idea of soldiers trying to shut down a hairdresser or a garden centre seems ridiculous even for this government.

HelloMissus · 05/09/2020 11:31

dolly while common sense certainly plays a part in likely non compliance so does self preservation.

People are weighing up the risk of losing their business, their job, their home. The risk of the virus - especially to most young fit people is small in comparison.

TheDailyCarbuncle · 05/09/2020 11:47

No, of course not, for the very good reason that national lockdowns are the opposite of effective - they create more problems than they solve. Here we are after months of lockdown (such as it was - I take the point that people weren't confined to their homes, but businesses were closed and social activity was restricted), still with cases in the community, still with ongoing deaths. So what was the point? You could argue that it was necessary to bring infections down to a lower level to 'protect the NHS' and so on, and I think that's valid if you're looking at a one-month or even two-month lockdown. But months and months of it? Children out of school from March to September?

People will still get covid and some will die. So they'll have the joy and fun of all the effects of lockdown (which are massive and likely to last for years and years) plus covid. A great result.

Besides that, lockdown has definitely killed people. For some reason in the minds of many, those deaths don't count. As long as they didn't die of covid, it doesn't matter. To my mind it is beyond idiotic to say that there is a threat from a virus so let's add to the threat by also destroying the economy. So people can now have the threat of illness combined with poverty, joblessness, mental heath issues and everything else that goes with a recession. Fantastic.

It is blatantly obvious how ridiculous it is to engage in months of lockdown and to have a crazy focus on one single risk from a virus to the extent that hundreds of other risks are increased unnecessarily. Being 'kept safe' from covid only to die by suicide because all your support structures have been taken away is not a positive result. A death is a death. Many people with dementia died because they couldn't cope with the stress and anxiety of being locked in their rooms without family contact. Many just stopped drinking and died from dehydration. That is a horrific outcome and totally unacceptable and anyone who argues that was in any way necessary is, frankly, nuts.

There will be a lot of questions asked in the coming years about what went wrong to make politicians think that destroying their economies was a sane or sensible measure. No politician is going to have the balls right now to admit they fucked people over. But plenty will point it out in future. And behind closed doors politicians will be recognising that doing it once can be considered a mistake but doing it twice is unforgivable.

AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii · 05/09/2020 12:36

@TheDailyCarbuncle very well put. I’m in Scotland and how Nicola is starting to bang on about independence again, I never really followed why she was dragging things out so long when community transmission had been low for a long time excepting a few flare ups but now I know why it’s all been political to try and get more people on the side of independence this time by saying ‘look how well I did’! Completed to Westminster when I know she shipped people out of community hospitals to other homes or hospitals miles and miles from family and sent covid cases into care homes

year5teacher · 05/09/2020 13:56

I don’t think there will be - but if there is, my school will be full of key worker kids for me to teach so thankfully I’ll be carrying on sort of normally.

I hope I never have an extended time WFH again. I hated it.

Foobydoo · 05/09/2020 14:10

@dollypartonscoat

Ha, my mum can't go into her next door neighbours garden. But they work in close proximity to each other with no social distancing less than a mile away.

Whereas a high percentage of people were complying in March, it's flipped thanks to inconsistencies like this

I agree. The rules make little sense and people simply do not trust the government. I live in one of the the greater Manchester local lock down areas. Nobody took a blind bit of notice at all. I did because i'm vulnerable, but every one else I know just went about as normal. Pubs remained open, shops back to pre-covid ways, people on days out and holidays, visiting households, eating out to help out in large mixed groups unchallenged and hardly anyone wears masks. The schools are going to cause issues. Huge crowds of parents queuing for school, no masks, no attempt to social distance, and very high number of grandparents doing the school run. Lots of people speaking out on facebook against lockdown and calling covid a plandemic.
OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer · 05/09/2020 14:54

@dollypartonscoat

Ha, my mum can't go into her next door neighbours garden. But they work in close proximity to each other with no social distancing less than a mile away.

Whereas a high percentage of people were complying in March, it's flipped thanks to inconsistencies like this

People just aren't willing to tolerate being expected to risk going into work during a pandemic, whilst simultaneously being restricted in seeing loved ones.

I'm aware of the rationale that social interactions need to be limited so we should prioritise risks that provide an economic benefit over those that merely make people happier, but of fucking course that goes down like a bucket of sick. It couldn't possibly do otherwise. Because it's essentially saying to millions of people that them commuting into work, risking covid to make money for their boss is fine and in fact should be encouraged even if they could do their job at home, but their kid's birthday tea with their four best mates from school can fuck off.

BubblyBarbara · 05/09/2020 15:15

There’s no way. If things get really bad we’ll revert to what Boris wanted to do initially.. let everyone get it, let the weak fall, wait for it to fade away.

herecomesthsun · 05/09/2020 16:01

@TheDailyCarbuncle

No, of course not, for the very good reason that national lockdowns are the opposite of effective - they create more problems than they solve. Here we are after months of lockdown (such as it was - I take the point that people weren't confined to their homes, but businesses were closed and social activity was restricted), still with cases in the community, still with ongoing deaths. So what was the point? You could argue that it was necessary to bring infections down to a lower level to 'protect the NHS' and so on, and I think that's valid if you're looking at a one-month or even two-month lockdown. But months and months of it? Children out of school from March to September?

People will still get covid and some will die. So they'll have the joy and fun of all the effects of lockdown (which are massive and likely to last for years and years) plus covid. A great result.

Besides that, lockdown has definitely killed people. For some reason in the minds of many, those deaths don't count. As long as they didn't die of covid, it doesn't matter. To my mind it is beyond idiotic to say that there is a threat from a virus so let's add to the threat by also destroying the economy. So people can now have the threat of illness combined with poverty, joblessness, mental heath issues and everything else that goes with a recession. Fantastic.

It is blatantly obvious how ridiculous it is to engage in months of lockdown and to have a crazy focus on one single risk from a virus to the extent that hundreds of other risks are increased unnecessarily. Being 'kept safe' from covid only to die by suicide because all your support structures have been taken away is not a positive result. A death is a death. Many people with dementia died because they couldn't cope with the stress and anxiety of being locked in their rooms without family contact. Many just stopped drinking and died from dehydration. That is a horrific outcome and totally unacceptable and anyone who argues that was in any way necessary is, frankly, nuts.

There will be a lot of questions asked in the coming years about what went wrong to make politicians think that destroying their economies was a sane or sensible measure. No politician is going to have the balls right now to admit they fucked people over. But plenty will point it out in future. And behind closed doors politicians will be recognising that doing it once can be considered a mistake but doing it twice is unforgivable.

To be fair, the scenario of living in a country with 250, 000 people dying of covid, that wouldn't be a bundle of fun either.

There would be a huge economic impact from that, to be borne by future generations.

Businesses would have closed, with the owners/ workers/ main customers dead.

Society would have been forced to shut down anyhow. Just with a higher corpse count. And maybe worse and for longer.

People would have killed themselves anyhow, in this dystopian nightmare and more people with dementia would have died, of covid and of lack of care because their carers were ill or dying or isolating and so was their family.

We are population dense, we can't wing it like Sweden.

The politicians were forced into lockdown,against their ignorant wishes, by necessity and world opprobrium, and, yes, it could happen again.

Forcing kids back into crowded schools with adequate safety measures, and workers into offices, this is very unwise, if we want to avoid a further lockdown.

Ethelfleda · 05/09/2020 16:17

I agree there won’t be another national lockdown. Covid was apparently circulating in Europe since end of last year and it took months and months to get to the point that we needed a local lockdown. I don’t think it will be necessary with the testing capacity we have.
As previous others have stated, I won’t be sticking to it the second time around anyway even if there was one.

Popcornriver · 05/09/2020 16:51

I don't know if there will but I don't see the current local lockdowns working well. What even are the restrictions if your town goes into local lockdown? It seems like it's business as usual. Schools and workplaces all open and you can still go out with your family and friends, just not meet up in gardens and houses Hmm

lifeafter50 · 05/09/2020 16:52

As previous others have stated, I won’t be sticking to it the second time around anyway even if there was one.
Completely agree.People won't be suckered twice.

OpenlyGayExOlympicFencer · 05/09/2020 17:15

The politicians were forced into lockdown,against their ignorant wishes, by necessity and world opprobrium, and, yes, it could happen again.

How? It would need paying for. You seem to be arguing here that a situation might arise where it should happen, which is not the same thing.

luckylavender · 05/09/2020 17:25

There's no real point in speculating because none of us can know anything for sure. Treatments are improving, there are less people in hospital, in intensive care. On the other hand infections are creeping up not just here but with out closest European neighbours. But if people refuse to do the right thing then it will take longer.

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