Do people actually realise how few are dying from coronavirus now?

[Mrschickpeabody]

It’s all still doom and gloom on the news as normal regarding coronavirus. Loads about cases going up, local lockdowns, negativity regarding schools going back but nothing about the fact that hardly anyone is actually dying from coronavirus or being admitted to hospital. Can we not hear about positive things for once?

The King’s College London study is finding that about 1 in 10 people with Covid symptoms has “long Covid”. I don’t think there are published figures on how many had pre-existing conditions but it appears that many/the majority didn’t including Professor Paul Garner, a professor of infectious diseases, who has written about it extensively.

@AlecTrevelyan006

indeed - on an individual basis we do our best to avoid car crash fatalities

but as a society we have decided that the benefit of having no deaths caused by car crashes (which we could achieve simply by banning cars) is outweighed by the benefits that car ownership and usage brings to us all.

Therefore, we mitigate as best we can but we acknowledge that there is a number of deaths that we will consider acceptable to ensure that the rest of society can function in an efficient and effective way

But the risk of us driving a car remains a constant statistic. You wear a seat belt, stick to speed limit and don't stink etc.

The risk of dying if Covid changes due to the exponential growth risk if we don't maintain the precautions.

Certainly in the UK things like cancer screening are way down. Allison Pearson in the Telegraph has been collecting many, many examples where people with life threatening illnesses have had their treatment stopped due to covid precautions. Some have died, some have been told they need to wait till 2022 for a telephone appointment. These are people with serious illmesses who need urgent treatment.

If this is a true statistic than this needs dealing with alongside Covid.
Because this is a decision at local level.

My mum and dads cancer treatment didn't stop or slow. They continued completely as normal the whole way through.
So this wasn't a government decision to stop. It's a hospital level decision not to carry on.
Even if they needed to stop for March /April for 4/5 week period as an emergency they should be up and running and continuing now and should have been for months.

@AlecTrevelyan006

the number of daily covid deaths is currently 'acceptable' - imho - and would need to be much, much higher (among the general population) before it becomes unacceptable

Exactly why we have the measures in place. To keep them acceptable and stop them raising back up to unacceptable.

There are some posters who claim with absolute certainty that Covid is mild for most, but pour scorn on early indications that long Covid affects approx 10%.

Those two positions are often stated together, by the same scientists and doctors who are involved in studying Covid, but still some people only believe half the message.

I'm guessing the people who see low death numbers now and think we should drop caution are the same people who thought it was all an exaggeration in Italy and it wouldn't come to the UK because we only had a handful of cases.
It must be so relaxing and comfortable to have so little understanding of exponential growth, and the fact that rising cases today equals rising deaths in two weeks.

@Pluckedpencil

I'm guessing the people who see low death numbers now and think we should drop caution are the same people who thought it was all an exaggeration in Italy and it wouldn't come to the UK because we only had a handful of cases. It must be so relaxing and comfortable to have so little understanding of exponential growth, and the fact that rising cases today equals rising deaths in two weeks.

I agree I sort of wish I felt it was 'all over'. It's heavy weather believing that this winter could go either way.

the number of deaths and the number of active cases being low is is not evidence that the current measures are not needed. they are low because of the current measures.

the thing to look at is the R number. if the R number goes above 1 and we do nothing about it, then cases and deaths grow exponentially until they are unmanageable. if when the R number goes above 1 we increase our vigilance and compliance with stricter guidelines, then we can live reasonably close to a normal life just putting up with a few inconveniences

Threads like this are the same reason we're all going to be screwed by climate change.

If we wait until we feel the effects of something, we have left it too late.

I dont think anyone will say low death numbers should mean we drop caution - the dangers of COVID its infectiousness and lack of immunity still exist.

There is also no doubt that long COVID exists although I dont think we can say it is 5-10% of cases yet at all given the numbers of cases are unknown. Even the Kings Study highlights those with symptoms - which we simply dont know the numbers of. I think we can say with certainty it is a significant amount though and something we definitely should be wary off.

I think sometimes one of the dangers here is we went from not knowing anything to knowing too much we have studied this like no other!

I think we can see the death as decreasing as a positive because

1. We are better now at treating and understanding it. It isnt the disease we thought it was at the beginning and ventilators dont work (and indeed cause lots of long term issues for those who survived). Treatments are better

2. It is currently hitting the younger population who survival rates are much higher

3. Its been summer

4. We cannot compare case numbers now with March - far more testing is being done. Numbers due to SD etc are still much lower than they were then

We cannot though stop with all of these - we need to at least get through this winter with measures in place.
Deaths will increase in Winter - partly simply because they do. And it will be no panicking when that and hospital admissions start to rise - because they will. There is no way around that. Winter will be harder than summer - it always is. And this is going to be a very hard winter.

We need to move forward with caution but I think with optimism that we do now more than we did at the start, we can treat it better.

We are going to have to get used to masks, SD, one way systems and not having people in our house. Where I am (South) the level of restrictions we have I can happily live with over winter and just hope that it will be enough

Quartz

You say that but it’s predicted to take couple years to get through hospital waiting lists

Already the deaths by other illnesses is higher than previous years

Clinics have been halved

Job losses haven’t started yet - even if workplaces are open almost all won’t need all staff due to distancing restrictions

So millions lose jobs, then homes

At some point -while ago imo/ those things trump the number of deaths esp - hate to say it - guven so many were critically ill anyway

By all means you won’t ahrrr now but if you and your partner are made redundant by Xmas as a direct result of these restrictions (predicted 1:3 will lose job) then you may start questioning what we are doing now

I'm guessing the people who see low death numbers now and think we should drop caution are the same people who thought it was all an exaggeration in Italy and it wouldn't come to the UK because we only had a handful of cases.
It must be so relaxing and comfortable to have so little understanding of exponential growth, and the fact that rising cases today equals rising deaths in two weeks.

They are the same people who were saying “only 10 people have died - what’s the fuss about! More people die each year from being eaten by their lawnmower!” as though they are a goldfish only capable of thinking in the here and now.

@Quartz2208 I totally agree with your post. Yes it probably is a significant number but none of us know. Mumsnetters throw numbers round like it’s fact.

Take the emotion out (like we do with all other risks) and you’d see lockdown is now way ott

Your right OP. Hospitals will be busy with other things. Also we will soon be on stand by mode awaiting the usual winter pressures plus waiting to see how COVID-19 possibly affects this.

@Vinoonasunnyday

You say that but it’s predicted to take couple years to get through hospital waiting lists. Already the deaths by other illnesses is higher than previous years. Clinics have been halved.

And all that is bad. Had the NHS had the same resources as many other European countries and/or we’d taken action earlier to stem the virus’ growth, much of this wouldn’t have been necessary.

However, I fail to see how this can possibly be part of an argument for “let’s let everything get completely back to normal!”... On the contrary! Non-Covid care has taken enough of a battering... the last thing it needs is another round of cancellations as we go through the winter. Repeating yesterday’s mistakes is madness.

Take the emotion out (like we do with all other risks) and you’d see lockdown is now way ott

Yes, but we’re not in lockdown and haven’t been for months... The argument: “Lockdown does more harm than good, so let’s all get back to normal!” is assumes we are still back in April.

@Whatnext2018
* during the worst part, it was a couple of months of rocketing heart rate, high anxiety, crying hysterically to my dp and not knowing why, just an overwhelming feeling I was going to die and leave my dd, 2. Vibrations in my head and chest, numbness in my mouth and face, tingling all through my body, being woken from sleep four times per night gasping for breath, bizarre nightmares..*
No offence but it sounds like you are having panic attacks. Has this been investigated?

Someone up post said that her grandfather in his 80's died of it recently and 12 families were grieving for the people that died of Covid.

Whilst that is sad lots of people die in their 80's all of the time (more than 12) and sepsis which her grandfather had would have weakened him considerably prior to covid coming along. Are we to stop everything for all the people in their 80's who die of all the other causes? We appear to have forgotten as a society that death is natural and spend so much time keeping people alive as long as possible (even when they have advanced dementia etc) that we appear to have forgotten that death is natural.

We need to have a balance of making sure the young have the opportunities that we had and not causing them life long difficulties or disadvantages to save people near to the end of their life. Balance is everything.

Covid has meant that some people think it trumps everything and currently it still does but other things matter too. Mental health, education, social interaction is vital in the young, the economy.

I second that.... sounds like anxiety attack - might be worth seeing doctor for anxiety rather than assuming after effects of covid

"@Whatnext2018
during the worst part, it was a couple of months of rocketing heart rate, high anxiety, crying hysterically to my dp and not knowing why, just an overwhelming feeling I was going to die and leave my dd, 2. Vibrations in my head and chest, numbness in my mouth and face, tingling all through my body, being woken from sleep four times per night gasping for breath, bizarre nightmares.."

@ChanceEncounter

There are some posters who claim with absolute certainty that Covid is mild for most, but pour scorn on early indications that long Covid affects approx 10%.

Those two positions are often stated together, by the same scientists and doctors who are involved in studying Covid, but still some people only believe half the message.

I don’t believe this message. I think there is a possibility of this but far too much anecdote and too little time for conclusive research. A study is not evidence. The opinion of a single scientist is not evidence. Forming conclusions on selected reports and selected opinions isn’t science or medicine.

Doom mongers cancelling events four months away.

Surely you don’t have to be in that line of work to know that big events aren’t just organised the day before they happen? Councils, for example, can’t afford to invest large sums of money in events which may not go ahead so are erring on the side of caution, and as a council tax payer I’m not unhappy with that decision.

@Mrschickpeabody @JulieHere And those comments right there are exactly why this is so hard for long term sufferers. Part of the illness/virus seems to be that it affects the mind also. You need to research this more and hear cases from the thousands of people suffering, then you can be less ignorant about it. These comments are extremely frustrating and upsetting..in short, no, it isn’t anxiety.

I’ve just read back the OP’s posts and although they state a point of view are not that coherent, but they have generated an interesting discussion.

I don’t understand why people are still talking as though we’re in lockdown - we’re not. We can go to work. We can meet people. Schools are back. We can go on holiday anywhere in the UK, and indeed we can go abroad if we’re prepared to quarantine. We can go out for meals.

I’m prepared to suffer a few inconveniences such as face coverings and social distancing if it keeps the number of cases low so that people can get their hospital treatment - because those people shouting about “things must go exactly back to normal” don’t seem to realise that a few cases in a cancer centre, for example, mean that treatment options will be reduced or curtailed while they are dealt with.

I suppose people who think things should completely revert to normal would be happy for the festival I usually attend to be staged - so thousands of people in a confined area (albeit outdoors) with crowded communal facilities and minimal social distancing and sanitation. Personally I’m prepared to forego that for now.

really dont see how people can be so dumb as to suggest relaxing restrictions would allow more cancer treatments - when it is exactly the opposite. The restrictions we have keep numbers needing hospital care down to a level where the NHS can do other work. They cant do enough of it because they have been under-resourced for years.

If cases start to rise again the NHS will be dealing with the people dying of Covid and wont be treating many cancer patients because their beds will be full of Covid patients. Perhaps those who want cancer treatments to go ahead think Covid patients should be left to die in the streets?