What triggers a local lockdown?

[Harencha]

Numbers rising in my LA quite quickly and wondering what the conditions are to invoke a local lockdown? I've googled but it's not as straightforward to find as it should be!

It can't be straightforward though as the rate of infection doesn't mean the same thing in every case with regards to the extent of community transmission. The situation in Northampton shows that even rates above 100 per 100,000 won't necessarily require a blanket lockdown when there is easily traceable and observable links between most of the cases and little to no community transmission, whereas the situation in other areas shows that there may be a need to impose restrictions at around 20 per 100,000 when there is no obvious link between cases and high levels of community transmission linked to several different outbreaks.

Interested. Also has any school hit tier 2 rota yet.

It seems to be around 20 cases per 100,000 - that is what they use for quarantine restrictions also...

@MarshaBradyo
The tiers for school openings aren't to do with individual schools but rather schools in areas with high levels of cases. If an individual school has a number of positive results without an uptick in cases in the area as a whole it is likely that the particular school would close for 14 days and all pupils and staff asked to self isolate but after this period everyone would be back as normal.

Hysteria mostly.

In Birmingham we are at 26 out of 100,000 and on a watch list, not in local lockdown (yet).

@Pixel7777

It seems to be around 20 cases per 100,000 - that is what they use for quarantine restrictions also...

That seems low to me!

Being forgettable, Northern and easy to blame seems to help.

@Pixel7777
Around 20 is the minimum level for consideration but it could be much higher if the uptick in cases is caused by an outbreak in a specific workplace, pub, school, mosque, church or other venue and hasn't caused significant levels of community transmission at point of detection (as in such cases restrictions on those who have been to the affected venue are both less disruptive to the public and more effective in controlling the virus). It is also likely that it would have to be slightly higher than 20 in local authorities with the smallest populations as in some cases a rate of 20 could quite easily be entirely made up of one or 2 households and not indicative of any wider problem.

[quote StatisticalSense]@MarshaBradyo
The tiers for school openings aren't to do with individual schools but rather schools in areas with high levels of cases. If an individual school has a number of positive results without an uptick in cases in the area as a whole it is likely that the particular school would close for 14 days and all pupils and staff asked to self isolate but after this period everyone would be back as normal.[/quote]
Thanks, yes I thought that. I saw one poster on another thread talk of a two week rota (in greater Manchester I think) which surprised me as I hadn’t seen anything on local tier 2 announcements yet.

High rate nearby. My borough is near ones with high rates, and was placed in local lockdown despite having a lower rate than lots of other bits of the country.

It may seem low, but Aberdeen was triggered at 14...and recent Scottish one is around 20

Ah we've had 22 cases in 7 days however a restaurant, bank and opticians have all shut as precautions so hopefully that means they're all linked and traceable.

I'm in Bolton we had local restrictions along with the rest of Greater Manchester,we were supposed to be coming out of them tommorow,however we have a sudden and unexpected rise in transmission ( according to the local paper) I think we are at 54 in 100,000 now so restrictions are staying.

[waves in despondent sympathy to @x2boys ]

How do those numbers work? When you say 20 cases per 100.000 does that 20 new cases a day or 20 active cases?

My understanding is that it all depends on whether it's community transmission or an isolated cluster in a workplace, family etc. There seems to be a lot of tracking of where the cases are coming from which is good.

The threshold is lower for quarantining from other countries because we're not party to the info on what the figures actually mean - are they down to widespread community transmission or related to a series of factory outbreaks etc, so it's a blunt instrument with regards foreign travel.

It's 41 per 100,000 where I live. 60 cases in a week. From almost none a few weeks ago. Theres been talk of a local lockdown by local MPs but nothing been said by council. I have heard rumours locally alot of cases can be linked to same source but don't know how true.

It’s all about tracing. If they know exactly how it’s getting spread and can isolate accordingly then they’re ok with it. If it is less clear (eg, someone could have picked it up in a pub, visiting family, or from a shop) then there will be more caution.

Yes we've had a message from council tonight saying they think it's an isolated spike. Fingers crossed

Ah, I see (spikes) yes ours too, a village outside of town..stressful isn't it.

i wonder how much of the UK might end up back in such lockdowns. Could it mean more than not, and some few areas being 'free'

How does that work though @tootyfruitypickle surely if it's a workplace cluster etc you can't be sure who people have mixed with outside of work in the supermarket etc ,I'm not being sarcastic I'm just curious ,apparently here in Bolton they are saying it's due to house hold,s mixing ,but people in households will still have members going to work ,children attending school etc .

Tbf we have had around 10 pubs/restaurants close over the last week due to cases. Home bargains too. Most due to a staff member testing positive. There are a few who have tested positive commenting on local news on facebook saying they have no symptoms

Isn't that the nature of this virus though ,that lots of people will be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms ,but they could pass it on to people who are not so lucky ?