Playing down the virus

[YellowWave]

I notice a lot of comments online either on Facebook on the news and the comment sections or on forums. Not so much on this forum but on some other ones. Not so much American based forums either.

Anyways comments from people playing down the virus as if it's just a little cold or a mild cough. I don't have any first hand experience of the virus but I do know it's something that you don't mess with. I recognised early on that this virus is going to be more than the flu symptoms that we were told it was going to be like. Straight away I put it into the category of measles, munps, rubella viruses but all them viruses we have vaccines for and many of us don't have first hand experiences of them viruses. Basically, I was watching experts on the TV speak out about this back in February. I saw an element of fear in their faces. I sat up and took this virus very seriously.

I know how important it is to follow the guidelines on social distancing and hygiene measures. I keep my close contacts low.

On online discussion forums, there's comments from people saying
this virus is nothing;
biggest storm in a teacup;
its just a little cold;

There's actually a type of bullying going on from that side of the fence painting pictures of anyone with concern about the virus or taking the virus and measures seriously, as scaredy cats cowering in corners.

I'm taking the virus seriously and avoiding crowds etc but I don't feel like I am deprived of a social life or a poor summer. I looked for unique experiences to do with my partner and many of them magical. Like we took a cooler box of alcohol to an overnight stay in an air B&B at a castle. No one else around once we were given our keys and shown to our room. Just me and him.

There's an attitude online that this virus is nothing and that attitude is growing and growing and it's beginning to drown out the people who are doing their best to be sensible around this virus.

The modelling done by Ferguson and the Imperial team in March also gave an estimated overall IFR of 0.66% which has pretty much turned out to be bang on, which is impressive given that it was done in the early stages of the pandemic.
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

OP, I'm with you on this one. Whilst it's true that many healthy people under 40 who catch it will only experience mild symptoms, for anyone vulnerable and/or in older age groups the virus can be very nasty, and the effects long lasting (if not fatal). You only have to look at news coverage from around the world, or watch documentaries on the virus, to see that this virus needs to be taken seriously.

Pay no heed to the people playing down the virus - they are probably a bit hard of thinking. I'm not saying we should all be terrified, but it I think it makes sense to be cautious and follow the guidance, even if it does restrict our way of living.

I watch regular updates on YT from Dr Campbell - I will try to attach a link shortly. He was a nurse for many years, then went on to teach nursing, and seems to have a really good handle on what is going on, and how to interpret statistics.

Link to a video by Dr John Campbell:

He uploads vids most days, and they are quite informative.

Porcupineinwaiting posted:

"The interesting thing about threads like this is they never mention that, in the west at least, this is a virus that disproportionately affects not just the elderly, but people of colour. Weird huh? Almost as though their lives matter less."

It is believed that Vitamin D deficiency is a factor in both of those groups. There is plenty of information available on this subject, if you care to look for it. I've don't understand why this is not being discussed a lot more in the media, as it's so obvious to many people. From all I've read on this subject, I think it's a good idea to get some sunlight each day and/or supplement Vit D if you have reason to think your levels could be low (due to lifestyle/skin colour, etc). (I'm not medically qualified to give advice, so check with your GP if you have concerns.)

Derby, it's not just about antibodies. I'd suggest you look up Professor Sunetra Gupta (Oxford University) as see what she has to say about it. The Ferguson model assumed that there was zero immunity already in the population and that the epidemic had a relatively late start date. Both of those assumptions lead to a worse case scenario in their figures and both were highly likely to have been bad assumptions. The peak went through earlier than would have been the case if lockdown had done anything to stop it.

Ferguson has repeatedly predicted worse case scenarios over the years (BSE, foot & mouth, H5N1, swine flu) that are orders of magnitude higher than those seen empirically.

Coffee, IRF is difficult to calculate accurately because it's hard to pin down the absolute number of infections. You cite a Lancet paper that you say backs up Ferguson, but there are other papers out there that show IFR that doesn't.

Defenbaker - you have absolutely no idea of the intellect of other posters. Just because someone has a different opinion to you doesn't mean that they are stupid. But carry on with the ad hominem attacks if it makes you feel better 🙄

Great post @Weathergirl1

@Defenbaker debate, discussion and an ability to have a reasoned argument with someone who holds different views are the contributors whose posts I pay heed to. When you type something like:

"Pay no heed to the people playing down the virus - they are probably a bit hard of thinking."

I immediately discount you. There is no need to be rude and all you succeed in doing is turning people away from you. You can attack an argument but if you attack a person then you have lost them - and my respect for any relevant points you might have been trying to make.

There are many people out there, with lots of letters after their names, making the case for both sides of the argument and I'm trying to read a balance of both.

@Weathergirl1 @Ibake

I wasn't referring to anyone posting on this thread when I referred to the "hard of thinking", I was referring to the people that the OP had referred to in her opening post, who think that Covid19 is "just a cold". I know that for many the symptoms are mild, but for a sizeable minority of people the virus affects them very badly, so I do think it's stupid to trot out that phrase.

Professor Sunetra Gupta is no more infallible than Professor Ian Ferguson. I have read articles, and she makes some good points, but I don’t believe there is sufficient evidence for anyone to have any confidence that we have reached here immunity. I’m not completely discounting it, it just seems highly unlikely.

I’ve never denied that Ian Ferguson’s model had flaws (in much the same way Gupta’s did carried out at similar time)

@Weathergirl1

Regarding your point concerning antibodies, I tried to be clear that I recognised that, and that antibody prevalence in a population is likely to be an underestimate due to factors such as t-cell immunity and individuals having extremely low antibody levels that evade tests. However, with the most recent U.K. widespread antibody study showing 6% in the U.K. and 13% in London, claims of that we have reached, or nearly reached, “herd immunity” just doesn’t seem credible when some places have recorded antibody levels at well above 50%.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/react-2-study-of-coronavirus-antibodies-june-2020-results/react-2-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-prevalence-of-coronavirus-covid-19-antibodies-in-june-2020

The following IoM study had a 75% incidence of antibodies in confirmed cases, further adding weight to the position that whereas antibody rates are an understatement of true infections, they nonetheless account for the majority.

covid19.gov.im/media/1314/preliminary-results-on-covid-19-antibody-testing-on-the-isle-of-man-july-2020.pdf

Even if you took the U.K. antibody study and took the most optimistic conceivable position that London had fully reached herd immunity levels, the rest of the country have a way to go.

Gupta’s argument for why we may have achieved herd immunity (and even she doesn’t appear confident about this) is that the relaxation of lockdown hasn’t seen any increase in cases. Since that article, there have been increases, not massive ones but increases nonetheless, and with tens of millions continue to live far more socially distanced lives than they were in March (even if they’re not “locked down” and hiding away from
human contact), we’re a long way from pre-March normal in our social interactions.

Time will tell. Perhaps we should come back here in a couple of months and see. If we continue to open up as we head into the darker, colder months, and numbers continue to remain very low, I’ll concede I was wrong and we have achieved, or are close to achieving, herd immunity, and that it’s effectively “over”. Nothing would make me more delighted than to be proven wrong on this!

Well if we've magically reached herd immunity here why hadnt they in the States. They opened up, few measures to prevent spread, and boom, pandemic took off. If the virus has been here stronger than was thought then it was there far longer than was thought and it hasn't helped them one whit.