Playing down the virus

[YellowWave]

I notice a lot of comments online either on Facebook on the news and the comment sections or on forums. Not so much on this forum but on some other ones. Not so much American based forums either.

Anyways comments from people playing down the virus as if it's just a little cold or a mild cough. I don't have any first hand experience of the virus but I do know it's something that you don't mess with. I recognised early on that this virus is going to be more than the flu symptoms that we were told it was going to be like. Straight away I put it into the category of measles, munps, rubella viruses but all them viruses we have vaccines for and many of us don't have first hand experiences of them viruses. Basically, I was watching experts on the TV speak out about this back in February. I saw an element of fear in their faces. I sat up and took this virus very seriously.

I know how important it is to follow the guidelines on social distancing and hygiene measures. I keep my close contacts low.

On online discussion forums, there's comments from people saying
this virus is nothing;
biggest storm in a teacup;
its just a little cold;

There's actually a type of bullying going on from that side of the fence painting pictures of anyone with concern about the virus or taking the virus and measures seriously, as scaredy cats cowering in corners.

I'm taking the virus seriously and avoiding crowds etc but I don't feel like I am deprived of a social life or a poor summer. I looked for unique experiences to do with my partner and many of them magical. Like we took a cooler box of alcohol to an overnight stay in an air B&B at a castle. No one else around once we were given our keys and shown to our room. Just me and him.

There's an attitude online that this virus is nothing and that attitude is growing and growing and it's beginning to drown out the people who are doing their best to be sensible around this virus.

@EmilyDickinson

ScarMatty you said vaccines.

Sorry, I meant the flu vaccine as was previously discussed in the thread!

That is useful, lbake

Unfortunately in the U.K. we got to the point where lockdown was our only option. It’s far better not to get to that point by a rigorous test, trace, isolate, support system plus behaviour changes to reduce spread as far as possible.

Lockdown wasn’t a mistake. Letting things get to the point where it was needed was the mistake. If, collectively, we act responsibly and if the government can improve all aspects of test, trace, isolate, support we should be able to avoid getting to that point again.

I only know 2 people of my family and contacts who have had the virus. One now has long covid.
The other died today. She was only thirty.

Twillow I am so sorry for your loss.

I see someone's posted it already.

What someone posted is from the ONS.

Which says:

In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.

The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976.

During the winter months of 2017 to 2018, the number of daily deaths exceeded the daily five-year average for all days except 25 March.

Excess winter mortality in 2017 to 2018 significantly increased from 2016 to 2017 in all English regions and Wales, with Wales having the highest regional index.

Excess winter mortality continued to be highest in females and people aged 85 and over.

Excess winter mortality doubled among males aged 0 to 64 years between 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018.

Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final

A lot depends on if your view is saving every life is worth what ever it costs

Or if you say do you have to throw millions under a bus to save a few thousand

@Pixel7777

So what you mean is that covid is more infectious than flu...that could be true...it seems there are different infectious rates see here..(flu) none above around 2, I read covid can be around 4 but depends of course on the spreader's behaviour

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

So what you mean is that the measures are important as much for the infectioun rate as for the severity, I suppose.

Spot on!

The R rate for measles is 18!!!!!

The reason we don't have an out of control epidemic is because of vaccine.

A few decades ago there was a mass measles immunisation programme. I remember in senior school lining up in the hall with sleeves rolled up!

This is because of the Dr who said it's linked to autism (later disproved). So obviously with element of choice many parents decided the risk wasn't worth it.

This led to lower herd immunity in community. There were outbreaks in Univerisities and schools because it's so transmissible and the conditions are perfect.

More recently we now have the meningitis vaccine. Again this is quite rare for people to catch. But it is high transmissible with the right conditions. So science and medical developments allowed us to lower that risk through vaccination which has now become part of the childhood vaccination programme.

The outbreaks in factories etc is a prime example of how Covid spreads. You could go to 34 different places and not be in contact with someone who has it or the mitigation measures are effective (masks, SD hand gel etc)

But one person who is infectious can set off a local epidemic and you suddenly have 1-200 people infected from the same place.
This is why they now test everyone. Because developments have shown there are more asymptomatic people than first known and they've now realised they can shed virus. In fact these are the problem cases iyswim?
But it's less of a problem when they find a case or small outbreak, find the positives and isolate and isolate contacts (usually whole workplace).
This stops it's becoming exponential increase and keeps our R rate at 1.

If allowed to just transmit freely Covid R rate will be 3.

I'm hoping a vaccine comes to fruitation and as someone outbreaks said it'll just be given like flu to those most at risk yearly and will become a notifiable disease like measles and meningitis but will only be a problem when there's a case and will be contained quickly.

I do miss normal life!

@itsgettingweird I agree. If we follow the rules we can have a decent enough life -for now - without it going out of control again. Going back to normal isn’t an option just yet, but one day - don’t know when - it will be x

@Twillow

I only know 2 people of my family and contacts who have had the virus. One now has long covid. The other died today. She was only thirty.

so sorry. That's hard. I hope you have people around you for support.

From the BMJ:

Government exaggerates flu mortality again: why cannot the public be trusted with the truth?
I was perturbed and slighty astonished last week to see last winter's excess mortality being largely attributed to the bad flu season, though it is well-established that this was not the case - the main culprit being on this occasion apparently the Office for National Statistics [ONS].

The BBC reported [1]:

"There were around 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017-18 - the highest since the winter of 1975-76, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

"The increase is thought to be down to the flu, the ineffectiveness of the flu vaccine in older people and spells of very cold weather last winter."

The Daily Mail reported [2]:

"More than 50,000 excess deaths were recorded across England and Wales last winter, official figures show.

"Excess deaths refer to the amount of patients that died unexpectedly, calculated by comparing the mortality rate from winter months to the rest of the year.

"The shocking figures have been partially blamed on the deadly strains of flu that swept the nations over the colder months of December to March. "

So the government are now apparent not only blaming fluctuations in winter mortality on flu but all excess winter mortality on flu, to the the tune of more than 50,000 deaths. The reality is that Public Health England had already published the flu mortality figures for the season in May [4]:

"Through the USISS mandatory scheme, a total of 3,454 ICU/HDU admissions of
confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2017 to week 15 2018, including 372 deaths, based on combined data from England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. In England, the total number of influenza confirmed admissions to ICU/HDU was 3,175 (rate of 0.22 per 100, 000 population) and 320 deaths during the same period...

"The cumulative number of cases and deaths were higher compared to the 2016 to 2017 season (992 cases (rate of 0.06) and 112 deaths) and to the 2015 to 2016 season
(2,173 cases (rate of 0.14 per 100, 000) and 166 deaths) in England. This season
represents the highest number and rate observed since the beginning of the scheme
..."

On this basis, the number of deaths in England and Wales in an admittedly exceptionally bad year would have been only in the region of 335-340 deaths, and the ONS seem to have exaggerated the risk to the public by in the region of 150 times.

The House of Commons Science and Technology Committee have been complaining about low flu vaccine uptake again [5] but we do not even have any information about the vaccination status of the people who died. There are serious ethical issues both for medicine and government here which have yet to be addressed.

www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6#:~:text=The%20BBC%20reported%20%5B1%5D%3A,Office%20for%20National%20Statistics%20show.

IIRC 2018 there were a lot of deaths due to falls etc because hospitals were so busy.

It would be good to analyse the stats and see what were actual flu deaths compared to what were deaths caused by busy hospitals due to flu and other patients not being treated.

I think they were going to study this with the 46k Covid deaths Vs the other 20k that weren't?

It's so complex and does really need explanation to the general public have the full facts.

Quite amazing that the world has taken such extreme measures for a virus, which many on here, consider relatively harmless, from totalitarian states such as China to european democracies.

...they all got it hopelessly wrong?

A large pool of mildly affected and asymptomatic young people will pass infection on to the vulnerable eventually.

Not necessarily. Virologists have said asymptomatic carriers don't spread the virus anywhere near as well as symptomatic people. Someone I know actually has the virus mildly (tested positive two weeks ago), has been around lots of people who've all been tested and none of them have caught it, even close family.

@ChimmyMyChangas

If it wasn’t for the exponential growth the government wouldn’t give 2 shiny shits about the virus.

Viruses don't spread exponentially.

You're talking bollocks

Am I?

Sorry, I thought that was the whole issue with the virus and why numbers increased so rapidly leading to the health service becoming overwhelmed? Is that not the case? One person spreads it to 3, then they spread it to 9, then 27, etc etc until it’s at very high numbers and spreading quickly?

If that’s not right, or the reason why we locked down to reduce the number of infections, can you please explain beyond “bollocks”?

@ACautionaryTale

You can guess I don’t - Everyone does eventually

I hate the phrase “xyz lives were saved “ - no, xyz ldeaths were delayed

I cannot countenance throwing a generation of children and the livelihood of the working generation to save a subset of people the majority of whom are Over 70 and I believe mostly over 80

My mother, aunts and uncles and in-laws all fall into the latter category (my dad died 59 from cancer so I’m fully aware of the pain of losing a loved one before their time) but if you are in you 80s it is your time

Aren't you lovely? Such social responsibility. You must be raising wonderful children, who in turn will be pleased to throw you to the wolves once you turn 75 or so.

Plus, punctuation is really useful. Try it!

The loss of some people "past their time" in their 70s and 80s has absolutely devastated me, and caused pain to my dc. I'm glad the doctors who looked after them did not subscribe to your philosophy.

I totally agree with you OP.

And chuckling at the would-be medics, claiming it's all exaggerated 😄

The problem with covid is that it has become very political.

You see that very clearly with trump trying to bring forward untested vaccine and not get asymptomatic people tested with the soul purpose of making things look good in the short term, with no regards to the longer term consequences.
We get it that people don't want to share the economic responsibility for something which may not affect them. But as with vaccines, if everyone doesn't do it, it doesn't work.
And the economic consequences of not dealing with it or doing it badly are far worse than doing it properly.

Just stop worrying what others think and you crack on with your life .

It would be nice, but the hysterical will start bleating that you are selfish if you try that one.

Makes me wonder when the terminally hysterical will actually shut up.

"- no, xyz ldeaths were delayed"

By definition that is what you always do when you " save" a life!

@ChimmyMyChangas

People exaggerate, distort and cherry pick to argue their position from both sides, but I’ve seldom seem someone do so with as much gusto as you.

Covid may not be Ebola, and our reaction as a society may have been excessive, but dismissing Covid as less harmful collectively than the flu is preposterous.

The equivalent on the “other side” would be someone who quotes Covid death rate of 10% (by simply dividing U.K. deaths into confirmed cases) and focuses constantly on the tragic but anomalous deaths of healthy young people.