Since R is 0.9-1.1 in England...

[netflixismysidehustle]

Are they going to actually shut the pubs so schools can reopen like they said they would?

The graph is showing sustained (but fortunately gentle) rise in case numbers. If they continue to climb, then there will be closures, and I'd expect pubs (as fundamentally non-essential) to shut well before essential organisations

Nah! Let's wait for all the kids to go back to school and unis, sit in a closed room for the whole week and THEN do a U-turn....

I can't see it happening. I feel like we are vvveeerrryyy sssllloowwlllyyy dddrrriiffftttiiinnnggg towards a bad winter I really hope I am not right, I'm feeling so pessimistic.

Except it was one scientist said that, 'they' never said it.

Im concerned . Im trying to work out whT work commitments I want to take on and cant weigh it up at all.

The virus has virtually disappeared in many of the parts of the country

The National average is bring skewed by a group of localised outbreaks

And remember, even if you get coronavirus you will most suffer none or old mild symptoms

Do you remember when BJ stood up and told us all there was an alert rating and that scientists would be continuously reviewing it, only re-opening things as we moved from 3 to 2 then 1.

Yeahhhhhh

He has no clue and the economy can't afford pubs to shut again. They'll ban all social interaction between households in all settings before they close hospitality again.

Did Boris and Gavin not say it?
Just had a Google and it seems that it was only hinted and in reference to local outbreaks

Shame I can't delete the thread

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50

Do you remember when BJ stood up and told us all there was an alert rating and that scientists would be continuously reviewing it, only re-opening things as we moved from 3 to 2 then 1.

Yeahhhhhh

He has no clue and the economy can't afford pubs to shut again. They'll ban all social interaction between households in all settings before they close hospitality again.

No. They're not stopping me seeing my Dad, seeing him every weekend is what's getting me through this.

Does school not count as social interaction?
My teens will walk to and from school with their friends.

@netflixismysidehustle

Does school not count as social interaction? My teens will walk to and from school with their friends.

You must have missed the memo!!

Schools have a magic force field to prevent Children, school staff & their families from getting Covid, so the pubs can stay open 🍻🥤🥃🍷🥂🍹party on

🙄🙇🏻‍♀️🙄🙇🏻‍♀️🙄😱

R is a very blunt instrument. It has been said many times that the R value is inaccurate/invalid when the number of cases is very low. Contrary to some opinions, 1000 cases a day is low in a population of 60 million.
There were 2 cases in my local authority last week and 6 this week, so I guess our R is 3? Should our area of 125,000 people be locked down as the R rate is high? Or would that be ridiculous for 6 cases?

It is important to look at other things than R, such as number of cases, hospitalizations, deaths.

An R of 1 is fine of course if the current numbers are low, as they are now. It just means the number that are currently infected will stay roughly the same. The problem comes when R goes above 1 continuously for a prolonged period.

I sadly think some of the restrictions we had before need to be reintroduced before September to prepare for schools opening.

I think going from 2 to 6 cases would give an R of 2, not 3 , if we really believed that those were all the infected people and the extra 4 people were infected by the 2 that started it off. Of course everything is more complicated than that in reality. Or in other words, estimating R is not that simple which is why we have statisticians :)

It’s lower numbers of infection that make the r rate higher when you get localised outbreaks as pp said.

So 1 person infects 1 person r rate is 1, sounds bad but is it?

500 people infect 250 people r rate is .5, sounds ok, but that’s 750 infected people with an r rate of .5 compared to 2 people with an r rate of 1.

Infection rates and deaths are more telling once numbers drop.

The r rate is less important now... because it is rising and the government doesn't know how to deal with it so we all have to pretend it is fin!

Our daily cases are not fine, they are rising. The R rate is not fine, it is rising. We have a failing track & trace. We have no clue what we're doing.

The Spanish government has publicly stated it is very worried - with fewer cases than the UK.

I have.no idea if we are heading for another out of control situation or just a gradual worsening but the government should try to look like they give a shit, because we are not getting any good indicators and clearly everything is starting to tick the wrong way.

I’d just like to point out that we can have no accurate idea of the R while testing remains so awful.

My entire household had to be tested yesterday at different drive in centres (DD has a cough and a temp).

The one my husband went to did the test for him and was done by a nurse. They one I went to I had to administer to myself and my toddler. I did my best but I have no idea if I did it effectively.

A friend had the same issue and it came back as ‘unclear result’. She went to a different centre and had a new one. I wonder how many people don’t bother!

@BelleSausage

I’d just like to point out that we can have no accurate idea of the R while testing remains so awful.

My entire household had to be tested yesterday at different drive in centres (DD has a cough and a temp).

The one my husband went to did the test for him and was done by a nurse. They one I went to I had to administer to myself and my toddler. I did my best but I have no idea if I did it effectively.

A friend had the same issue and it came back as ‘unclear result’. She went to a different centre and had a new one. I wonder how many people don’t bother!

Agree wholeheartedly.

We have a second-rate covid response in the UK in every way.

In most of Europe tests are done by HCPs so accuracy will be higher.

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50 that's exactly what we have in Oldham at the moment.

No social interaction but pubs and gyms are still open. It's madness but clearly aimed to try and curb the behaviour they're worried about from certain groups.

Interesting though hospital admissions aren't going up and some have suggested that maybe it's a good thing for more young and mobile people to get it now while they're not badly affected.,

It's shit for the kids here though. Adults can go to pubs, but the children can't even go for a walk with a friend :(

I think someone has told them that pubs are totemic, represent British normality and must be kept open (a bit like the threatres in the war)

And to some slices of the population it probably does matter that much. But not enough of the population for it to bear up a totem

[quote Lua]Nah! Let's wait for all the kids to go back to school and unis, sit in a closed room for the whole week and THEN do a U-turn....

It’s not true that the UK has more cases than Span. I wonder where that came from. We are on about 21 per 100,000 and Spain on 145. See www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

It is true that the number of cases has been gong up slowly in the UK. If you look at the graph you can see it is very slow growth currently however. (The percentage of tests that are positive accounts for the hugely changing number of tests)

pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef-fQjyWsAMxYlz?format=png&name=large

Weeell I’m still waiting for summer schools to open and dd is going back in a matter of days. Don’t hold your breath. You’ll die first. Just not from Covid.

@latticechaos

The r rate is less important now... because it is rising and the government doesn't know how to deal with it so we all have to pretend it is fin!

Our daily cases are not fine, they are rising. The R rate is not fine, it is rising. We have a failing track & trace. We have no clue what we're doing.

The Spanish government has publicly stated it is very worried - with fewer cases than the UK.

I have.no idea if we are heading for another out of control situation or just a gradual worsening but the government should try to look like they give a shit, because we are not getting any good indicators and clearly everything is starting to tick the wrong way.

Where have you got the idea that Spain has less cases than the uk? They have far more, both in total and in daily positive tests.

coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

@notevenat20 apols if I was wrong about Spain, thought I read 850 yesterday, but presumably I misread or misremembered? It has happened...