Since R is 0.9-1.1 in England...

[netflixismysidehustle]

Are they going to actually shut the pubs so schools can reopen like they said they would?

@AlecTrevelyan006

The virus has virtually disappeared in many of the parts of the country

The National average is bring skewed by a group of localised outbreaks

And remember, even if you get coronavirus you will most suffer none or old mild symptoms

It's pointless trying to change the dopey virus peoples minds with facts. They have to be told by a man on the television who went to Eton what to think.

@netflixismysidehustle

Does school not count as social interaction? My teens will walk to and from school with their friends.

Under 15s are more likely to die from being struck by lightning than Covid 19. You won't believe it I know.

It's pointless trying to change the dopey virus peoples minds with facts. They have to be told by a man on the television who went to Eton what to think.

Is the man on the television who went to Eton a dopey virus person? I don't understand who you're having a go at, 'coronaphobes' or 'covidiots'

I wish they would shut pubs and gyms for a few weeks to give kids the best chance of school.

And I speak as someone who desperately misses the gym. But I'll probably leave it until next spring at this rate, I'll make do in my garden.

I don't go to pubs very often but from the reports when lock-down happened it isn't practical to keep losing and re-opening pubs as the drinks they have on tap go stale so it just wipes out a whole load of stock.

@latticechaos No worries. The figures are hard to interpret at the best of times. Birmingham is looking worrying at the moment, if we want to have something to worry about.

I wish they would shut pubs and gyms for a few weeks to give kids the best chance of school.

Me too. Or close/restrict whatever their statisticians say will have the biggest effect.

In NI they've hinted the pubs might shut too. They've made a minor tweak this week reducing the numbers in homes but imho that's impossible to police and if people want to have a house party they will.

Also the R here is well above one.

@latticechaos

It's pointless trying to change the dopey virus peoples minds with facts. They have to be told by a man on the television who went to Eton what to think.

Is the man on the television who went to Eton a dopey virus person? I don't understand who you're having a go at, 'coronaphobes' or 'covidiots'

I'm not particularly having a go at anyone, just disappointedly stating that people clearly need someone on the television to tell them they can stop fretting about this virus.

just disappointedly stating that people clearly need someone on the television to tell them they can stop fretting about this virus.

Yes, I think sensible people need doctors and scientists to advise them.

I am not qualified in virology or epidemiology. I trust qualified people. NOT the government.

[quote notevenat20]@latticechaos No worries. The figures are hard to interpret at the best of times. Birmingham is looking worrying at the moment, if we want to have something to worry about.[/quote]
Birmingham is only looking worrying to people who have absolutely no idea how to filter and process information.

Most recent stats indicate that care homes continue to be the highest risk for outbreaks, followed by workplaces. Pubs aren't separately identified but must be, surprisingly, reasonably low risk - would they be "restaurants and food" or "other"?

The same document indicates that in the last two weeks the Pakistani Asian community has been disproportionately affected - whether because they are more likely to work in affected workplaces, live in affected areas or why I don't know - but as many Pakistani British Asians are non-drinkers it doesn't seem to be a pubs issue as much as I would have thought.

I'm quite suspicious of the particular pub-hatred and enthusiasm to close them on MN as I think it's mostly people who don't actually go to pubs merrily declaring that other people's livelihoods and leisure should be curtailed because it has no impact on them. There are 4 cases per 100,000 in my area, and there were 2 or fewer cases in my immediate area last week. Why should our pubs close?

@bingbong1970.

Could you add some detail to why it is not worrying? Let’s start from this graph

pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef-fQj3WkAMncTg?format=png&name=large

@Hardbackwriter

Only because it will reduce the chances of infections in schools. Given that many teachers (and their union) and some parents are ready to give up at the slightest opportunity this would give open schools a fighting chance.

I should say, it’s possible closing or restricting something else would have a greater beneficial effect. I would love to be told by someone who knows more. I notice in the recent local lockdowns it has been going to people’s houses.

Birmingham is only looking worrying to people who have absolutely no idea how to filter and process information.

People like the chief medical officer presumably

It's a wonder they didn't ask you to advise the government @bingbong1970

Agree with @Hardbackwriter - any new measures should be directed at where positive cases are coming from not just what random people chatting on the internet think us a problem. Closing pubs might sound like decisive action but won’t make a blind bit of difference if there’s no spread linked to them.

@RudeAF Yes. I did say pretty much that in the original post.

What 🤷🏻‍♀️

@Fainasnowchild

Most recent stats indicate that care homes continue to be the highest risk for outbreaks, followed by workplaces. Pubs aren't separately identified but must be, surprisingly, reasonably low risk - would they be "restaurants and food" or "other"?

The same document indicates that in the last two weeks the Pakistani Asian community has been disproportionately affected - whether because they are more likely to work in affected workplaces, live in affected areas or why I don't know - but as many Pakistani British Asians are non-drinkers it doesn't seem to be a pubs issue as much as I would have thought.

This is the aftermath of Eid - large, intergenerational households visiting each other and their neighbours.

Screenshot of ethnicity in positive cases over time; Pakistani Asian community has recently moved away from the trends to be disproportionately impacted.

@RudeAF Sorry, I said it in a different thread.

So it's mostly people who don't go to pubs, who are getting infected according to @fianaschild graph but let's shut them as Mumsnet has a irrational hatred of them.

@HeresMe
To be clear - the graph is per head of the population of each ethnicity not raw numbers. So that population is more significantly impacted, but it's not accurate to say they account for most of the cases.

Care homes and workplaces are still the most common cluster points.