Maybe autumn / winter won’t be as bad as expected?

[uka888]

When we were having the daily briefings from the government , the scientists were quite clear that it was probably going to be a tough autumn / winter and things wouldn’t be ‘normal’.

In recent weeks even though the cases are rising and there have been local lockdowns, some people are managing to get back to some kind of normality and wearing masks is becoming a bit more routine like... does anyone else think that this autumn / winter may not be as bad as we first imagined?

Is anyone doing anything to prepare for the next few months just in case?

We can only hope! If people can properly distance apart from a few close people, wear masks and everything else then we might manage. My concern is the being inside more, people becoming even more relaxed and (dare I say it) the school return.

If you are prepared for the worst but hope for the best, then you can be OK.

I'm getting a few extra tins and packets of things each time I shop so I'm not constantly popping into shops or panic buying at a later date. Also getting haircut and seeing dentist so all done before autumn.

I really do hope it won't be. We have managed to get cases very, very low in most parts of the country. We have much more testing capacity, test and trace is improving all the time (admittedly, it had quite a lot of scope to do that).

My hope is that local closures are quick and effective and we get into a process where ordinary coughs and colds get Covid ruled out promptly to minimise disruption.

It's even possible that we might not have a very bad flu year, if we are all still being careful about Covid.

The thing is - to get that good outcome, we have to act as though we believe the worse outcome is equally possible. We can't just pretend Covid-19 is a spent force.

I'm expecting it to be ok, really, as long as we can keep care homes and hospitals protected. At least we know what we're up against now. I'm also very optimistic about a vaccine being rolled out in the next few months.

Hopefully, but that won’t happen if people behave like “it’s all over”. Ironically, the more people think that, the less likely it will be!

Hopefully mask wearing will make a difference as well as everyone hand washing etc.

Masks really do make a huge difference. It's strange that when teens go back to school and fe. They won't have go wear masks and therefore mix with 100s of households!!

So it will be interesting I think to gage how that affects us a few weeks into the new term. October always seems to flick a switch on illness, even if the weather is still warm!

Interesting data from NSW Australia, huge drop in influenza numbers this winter (compare red line 2020 with grey line previous 5 years average):
mobile.twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1295556302761078790

In the middle of being fucked around by our bodged track and trace programme, lost test, looking like I'm going to have to self isolate for 10 days instead of 48 hours, I can't say I'm filled with much hope once coughs and temps start increasing and we have to really lean on this joke of a system.

@feelingverylazytoday vaccinne esfimates are currently mid year 2021

We're living well within the restrictions here, but it's apparent there's some that aren't. I fear these people, on top of schools going back and don't forget unis will be the tipping point as we've in a few areas

I think that there's a strong possibility of it being ok/manageable. The trouble is that people need to understand that the amount of freedom we have now is the calm before the storm. If most people accept that they need to have a quiet autumn and winter and keep social contact to a small scale then we'll be fine. Local or even large scale lockdowns will happen when people don't get that and try to return to a completely normal life.

I think as long as everyone sticks to the rules it will be OK

I also think the worst is over.

No I think it will get worse. Plenty have already abandoned SD, many refuse to wear masks (not genuine exceptions) and add to that schools going back, play dates and hobbies after school, cold weather meaning people meet up indoors etc, those who won’t self isolate when they should or quarantine after holidays. I can’t see any reason case numbers will remain low sadly.

We didn't prepare for the last lockdown and it was absolutely fine. Definitely not preparing for something that might not happen.

I’m starting to think we might be ok. There won’t be the usual flu figures because we’re all (mostly!) being careful. And OH MY GOD, I will be so pleased if we can get back to normal-ish.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss many of those things have already happened and cases have not massively increased (ons say it hasn't increased at all, just non symptomatic cases are being found as we test more in local hot spots) people hVe been saying since May thT we are going to have a huge increase... And every time they are wrong!

If by the end of November after schools have been back awhile and most people are back at work rather than working from home I would be optimistic that we won’t have the horrendous winter that has been predicted by some. Until then it’s all guesswork.

I think it's likely there'll be local issues at least, but as pp have said, the more likely people think it'll be fine, the less likely it is. Nothing is certain one way or another, but I've got decently stocked cupboards which will give us a bit of a buffer if there's any supply problems (& less likely to need to queue in the cold & wet) plus a few Christmas bits - just enough that we've got a few special treats to make it feel festive.
I've also bought presents for family & friends we don't see that often, so the kids will definitely have their (bulky!) gifts on Christmas morning even if we or they are locked down or isolating. And I've put some thought into what nice Christmassy things we can do if the situation isn't great.
I've not gone overboard with any of it (well, maybe the coffee stash if I'm honest, as I seem to be inhaling it these days) but given my level of faith in the government's ability to adequately navigate Covid & Brexit, I feel a bit more in control knowing I can at least give my dc a fairly normal Christmas experience.

Telegraph article on winter resurgence:

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-research-suggests-should-prepare-resurgence-covid-19-across/

I worry that we are in a false sense of security. The vulnerable are still essentially isolating and a lot of people are still reluctant to go out. I don’t think we will really know until the schools go back and people get out and about more.

Well in our case we are largely still isolating. We have schools going back in 2 weeks time; the arrangements are still very unclear; and there is no provision apparently for the vulnerable. It doesn't feel very good

I think it will be awful. Once the kids get back to school. The germs will start.

She can bugs
Colds
Coughs
Fevers
Tonsillitis
Sore throats.

Constant days off for tests and isolating. Parents worried because a child's gone home unwell in their child's class.

Norovirus and flu season. Everyone's immune systems are poor.

I personally don't go anywhere that's required to wear a mask. It's ruined it for me. I'm sure I won't be alone either.

I think life will remain rubbish for the next six months.

I also think most of us will catch it before January too. They don't have a vaccine and everything is restarting. So I think herd immunity will have to happen.

Once schools reopen I suspect teachers and parents will start getting sick and hospital admissions will spike again and deaths will sadly occur. Nothing has changed since march but from September life is resuming for everyone. It can only get worse once everything is open again sadly.

Sickness bugs!

People won't stay home either that's the trouble.

Going to pubs and softplay etc. Nobody will just accept a simple life for a while. I understand in many ways but from a health point of view just stay home!