In July people on Leicester were 40 times less likely to be hospitalised than the WHO suggests

[Treesofwood]

So apparently only 7 out of over 1300 confirmed with Covid in July in Leicester were hospitalised. According to WHO that should be closer to 250. So what's their secret? How does this measure up to hospitalisation rates for other illnesses?

In the whole of England there were only 40 new Covid admissions to hospital on 8th August

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/Covid-Publication-13-08-2020.xlsx

It’s because thousands of non symptomatic people were tested.

I work in one of the Leicester hospitals and we get regular updates on the number of inpatients. Despite the hysteria, the number has dropped consistently from a peak of over 200 back in April to around 10 last week!

Deaths are very low now too, I think we had 1 last week

Cases have gone up but deaths haven't

Initially vulnerable people were catching it, particularly in care homes and in hospital and although many recovered a sizeable proportion didn't. Many very vulnerable people DID recover though.

Now the people that are mostly going out and about are relatively young and fit - and very few of them are dying, whilst going out and about they are helping to build herd immunity and reduce the risk to the vulnerable.

An admission rate of 0.5% is lower than flu though. Surely if people are asymptomatic then the mortality rate must actually be a lot lower than what we are told? And therefore also lower than flu?

It’s because it’s predominantly young people catching it now. And they on the whole dont become very ill. It’s a real positive in many ways that despite cases climbing in many parts of the country, hospital admissions remain very low & falling in number! Obviously, we still need to protect the vulnerable & elderly but the horrible death toll is because it ripped through care homes & those already ill in hospital.

And yes, the mortality rate probably is lower. They estimate 70% of people are asymptomatic. So a huge portion of the population don’t even know they’ve had it & will obviously not test.

It’s why areas which seem really problematic also aren’t necessarily worse than other places. They ramp up testing for everyone, including those with no symptoms. So more cases are going to be picked up there. Areas with ‘low numbers’ might not be that low, it’s just there aren’t as many tests being done!

More people have died of Flu than Covid every week for the last 8 weeks!

They are hiding the data because it would support wider restrictions on those at the greatest risk while letting those at low risk to get on with their lives and the government are unwilling to put into place restrictions specifically applying to those over 50 (or whatever age would be most appropriate). On the whole the people who have been breaking social distancing and gathering have been at low risk and have self selected to stay away from close contact with family members at higher risk. It would appear that such actions have successfully prevented the virus from spreading to higher risk sections of society meaning very few cases are occurring in people likely to suffer severe symptoms.

@Treesofwood

A lot of us have been saying exactly that about the actual mortality rates since this whole thing started.

But we were told we were underplaying it and wanting to kill grannies

It’s been ovbvious from day 1 that there are 10s of times more people with it that we have positive tests for

@Olivia333 wow. Do you know what those figures are?
How are people still spreading flu with all the social distancing? (Not expecting you to answer that!)

If you look at the spanish antibody study it shows that under 40s are at very low risk of needing hospital. So if it predominantly young people catching it it makes sense

@StatisticalSense

They are hiding the data because it would support wider restrictions on those at the greatest risk while letting those at low risk to get on with their lives and the government are unwilling to put into place restrictions specifically applying to those over 50 (or whatever age would be most appropriate). On the whole the people who have been breaking social distancing and gathering have been at low risk and have self selected to stay away from close contact with family members at higher risk. It would appear that such actions have successfully prevented the virus from spreading to higher risk sections of society meaning very few cases are occurring in people likely to suffer severe symptoms.

What data is being hidden?

In the week ending June 19, 1,002 people died with flu and 783 died with coronavirus
In the week ending June 26, 938 people died with flu, and 606 with coronavirus
In the week ending July 3, 1,004 people died with flu, and 532 with coronavirus
In the week ending July 10, 917 people died with flu, and 366 with coronavirus
In the week ending July 17, 879 people died with flu, and 295 with coronavirus
In the week ending July 24, 958 people died with flu, and 217 with coronavirus
In the week ending July 31, 928 people died with flu, and 193 with coronavirus

I did wonder the same, how is the flu still spreading? No idea.

My nan is nearly 80 she has already said she would rather take her chances than miss out on seeing her friends and family again. She said she doesn’t know how many years she has left, those 3 months in lockdown were the worst in her life!

Also have you noticed that back in April, less than 20 000 tests were processed daily. Now it's nearer to 200 000 a day.

The situation in Ireland at the minute is playing out in exactly the same way. A big spike in cases but hospitalisation/ deaths are very low (the latter almost non existent).

@Olivia333 thank you for those figures. Unreal.
Will be googling flu spread later this evening!

I guess it’s largely because it’s younger people getting it now who are less likely to become seriously unwell? Care homes are hopefully safer now so less people there getting ill/dying given how many deaths were in care homes.

I must admit when I saw the figures the other day that 7 million people are estimated to have antibodies (and presumably been infected) that the death rate must be lower than 1% too.

I guess it’s largely because it’s younger people getting it now who are less likely to become seriously unwell?

I think that’s part of it, but it doesn’t explain everything. It’s not like older people in Leicester were unexposed.

Respiratory illness are not as likely to result in a hospital admission in the summer months, true for 'flu and corona viruses (not just Covid)

Very frustrating that our lives are still in chaos when deaths and hospital admissions are so low.

Can we see the source for around 1,000 people a day dying of flu? Seems unlikely give that we are all social distancing, I'd like to see where that statistic comes from.

@Morfin

Respiratory illness are not as likely to result in a hospital admission in the summer months, true for 'flu and corona viruses (not just Covid)

Even accounting for summer, it is odd that more are being hospitalised and dying of flu. There is a degree of immunity to flu in the population. If covid has free reign because none of us have immunity, surely you would expect there to be more covid cases and deaths than flu because there is more people to infect. I did read that flu numbers are lower due to social distancing, but how come we have suppressed covid so much but not flu?

@Bishybarnybee

Can we see the source for around 1,000 people a day dying of flu? Seems unlikely give that we are all social distancing, I'd like to see where that statistic comes from.

That was a week not a day

Well all the most vulnerable people in care homes or who work with the public are already dead - remember we had the highest number of excess deaths in Europe.

There as those who have been told they are vulnerable to the virus and their relations, who may be young, are taking precautions. So for example if you are a 22 year old with a extremely vulnerable father and you don't live at home, you simply make excuses not to visit him for a few weeks if you want to go out partying.