In July people on Leicester were 40 times less likely to be hospitalised than the WHO suggests

[Treesofwood]

So apparently only 7 out of over 1300 confirmed with Covid in July in Leicester were hospitalised. According to WHO that should be closer to 250. So what's their secret? How does this measure up to hospitalisation rates for other illnesses?

Here in spain it’s a similar story. Anecdotally I am hearing of acquaintances being diagnosed with it but they have absolutely no symptoms whatsoever. One person’s girlfriend and friend had to get tested due to travel and was surprised to find they were positive. So others in their social group also got tested and are also positive! I had lunch with one of them a couple of weeks ago too. I only found out about their positives yesterday.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020

The data on flu is from here. And that’s deaths per week not per day. It’s entirely believable.

Jrobhatch 30% of negative test are false. I've already been blamed for scaremongering for posting this but it's not unreasonable to think that some of those deaths are from covid.

@Olivia333

The way you’re presenting these figures is very misleading. You’re comparing apples and pears by trying to suggest that influenza is more dangerous than flu. I’ve copied below what I wrote on another thread yesterday.

I believe the figures you are quoting are those categorised under “Flu and Pneumonia” by the ONS, and a shorthand for 100s of viral, bacterial, fungal or even chemically induced respiratory illnesses that are deadly generally only to those who are seriously weakened through other conditions.

During the summer, this is not generally due to an influenza virus which is highly seasonal, with most of these illnesses not generally being infectious in terms of human-to-human transmission.

Pre-Covid, the most common cause of pneumonia is the Streptococcus pneumoniaeis bacterium. The influenza virus would often be the gateway for its activation.

It forms part of the normal upper respiratory tract flora - in other words it just lives within us naturally much of the time. As with many natural bacteria that live symbiotically within us, it can become pathogenic under the right conditions, typically when the immune system of the host is suppressed.

So there a relatively small number of “flu/pneumonia“-type illnesses and deaths would continue to occur even if we all lived in hazmat suits, and stayed 100 metres apart from every other human!

As far as I’m aware, there is no evidence there is a “summer” influenza virus that is somehow managing to transmit from human to human in a way Covid isn’t.

@Morfin

Jrobhatch 30% of negative test are false. I've already been blamed for scaremongering for posting this but it's not unreasonable to think that some of those deaths are from covid.

Possible. Do you not need to have been tested for flu to be classed as a flu death though? I was in hospital a few years ago really ill and they tested me for a few things and came back as influenza A

An admission rate of 0.5% is lower than flu though.

Not for the age group being infected!

It is a farce.

Funny how the Government and media make no attempt to put Covid into context against Flu and other causes of death.

Why is that?

Oh because the media loves a scare story and the Government has enjoyed running (and ruining) our lives since March. The more fear they spread the more control they have.

How many of us ever imagined that idiots like Johnson Hancock and Shapps could screw up our lives so much.

Still Johnson has started to look for others to blame - Public Health England looks to be an early scapegoat!

@Morfin
If you seriously believe the true number of people with Covid is in the tens of thousands per day you are delusional. It may be true that up to 30% of those with Covid will test negative but this is entirely different to saying that 30% of tests of false negatives. Even then it is likely to be those who are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic who give false negatives and therefore the numbers of such people dying will be extremely low.

@Cuddling57

Good question. I think my earlier post help to answer it.

@Olivia333

In the week ending June 19, 1,002 people died with flu and 783 died with coronavirus In the week ending June 26, 938 people died with flu, and 606 with coronavirus In the week ending July 3, 1,004 people died with flu, and 532 with coronavirus In the week ending July 10, 917 people died with flu, and 366 with coronavirus In the week ending July 17, 879 people died with flu, and 295 with coronavirus In the week ending July 24, 958 people died with flu, and 217 with coronavirus In the week ending July 31, 928 people died with flu, and 193 with coronavirus

I did wonder the same, how is the flu still spreading? No idea.

My nan is nearly 80 she has already said she would rather take her chances than miss out on seeing her friends and family again. She said she doesn’t know how many years she has left, those 3 months in lockdown were the worst in her life!

Someone said on another thread that these deaths are not one single flu, but combined flu/pneumonia deaths. Whereas covid deaths are specific. So not a direct comparison.

Jrobhatch29 as far as I understand influenza is a catch all approach, @Derbygerbil explains it better.

Derbygerbil your name makes my tounge go funny and my head make derby pronounced incorrectly.

Sorry, forgot to add - those 'flu' deaths are apparently only 50% of normal levels for this time, so presumably SD is reducing them too.

[quote StatisticalSense]@Morfin
If you seriously believe the true number of people with Covid is in the tens of thousands per day you are delusional. It may be true that up to 30% of those with Covid will test negative but this is entirely different to saying that 30% of tests of false negatives. Even then it is likely to be those who are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic who give false negatives and therefore the numbers of such people dying will be extremely low.[/quote]
No, I think a percentage of those who have died with 'flu could have conceivably died of Covid.

@Noextremes2017

It is a farce.

Funny how the Government and media make no attempt to put Covid into context against Flu and other causes of death.

Why is that?

Oh because the media loves a scare story and the Government has enjoyed running (and ruining) our lives since March. The more fear they spread the more control they have.

How many of us ever imagined that idiots like Johnson Hancock and Shapps could screw up our lives so much.

Still Johnson has started to look for others to blame - Public Health England looks to be an early scapegoat!

I saw this from CDC data the other day. It helped put things in perspective. It is america but I was surprised to see that covid is such a low % of all deaths for all ages. Especially children

I thought I read on another thread that “flu” isn’t necessarily what we all know as flu but pneumonia generally (presumably except for Covid related) rather than that there’s flu flying around everywhere too

@RaspberryRuff

I thought I read on another thread that “flu” isn’t necessarily what we all know as flu but pneumonia generally (presumably except for Covid related) rather than that there’s flu flying around everywhere too

We must have read the same post! Hopefully they'll appear and explain again.

If the bacteria causing these pneumonia cases is naturally occurring is wearing damp masks a good idea?

No of course we’re not getting a thousand deaths from flu every week in sodding August. The worst flu year in recent memory was less than 30,000 and the vast majority of those were in mid-winter.

they are testing more people, including people with no or minor symptoms. previously it was seriously ill people.

30% of negative tests are not wrong unless you are only testing people who have the virus. If you test a thousand New Zealand and get a thousand negative results that does not mean that three hundred of them have the virus.

It does annoy me when people get caught up in death rates. There is a big spectrum between not catching covid and dying of it.

@SmileTolerantly

30% of negative tests are not wrong unless you are only testing people who have the virus. If you test a thousand New Zealand and get a thousand negative results that does not mean that three hundred of them have the virus.

No but it's conceivable that some of those dying from respiratory illness do actually have Covid.

@Morfin

It does annoy me when people get caught up in death rates. There is a big spectrum between not catching covid and dying of it.

We were discussing hospital rates at first tbf

Apologies for being snippey, it was uncalled for.

Some, quite possibly. 30%, definitely not. Bear in mind that most doctors are pretty experienced at this point and if the other facts point clearly to Covid they will put it on the death certificate regardless of one negative test.