Have we reached our limit or not?

[CKBJ]

It was only a couple of weeks ago we were being told we had reached our limit in opening things up and possibly opened too much. There was talk of closing pubs and non essential retail to allow schools to reopen. What’s changed? Have I missed something? Tomorrow more things will be allowed to open and the restart of the trial of audiences watching sport, etc. I haven’t seen anyone in the media question the science behind the latest unlocking and where is the opposition party? Far too quiet. It seem all the government wants to do is divert from the exam fiasco and the new quarantine measures!

@Orchidsindoors

There does seem to be an increase in the past few days yes, as can be seen by the rolling average here:
mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1294353675020898304

However an increase in testing might be the reason for this? Need to wait a few more days to see what the trend is. Still doesn't seem to be coming from widespread community spread though, but from clusters in a few areas. The number of cases per million people is still low and hasn't changed much.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&casesMetric=true&dailyFreq=true&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&country=~GBR

Cases seem to be rising faster than tests

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.80368535.1879793525.1597140539-444045916.1596346567

Of course they could be targeting the tests better though so it could be that

"However an increase in testing might be the reason for this? Need to wait a few more days to see what the trend is."

The trend is rising. It's been rising for about 3 weeks now. You only have to look at the charts to see that. I only gave you figures for this week, but it's been rising every day for weeks before that.

@Heathershimmer95

Cases seem to be rising faster than tests

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.80368535.1879793525.1597140539-444045916.1596346567

Of course they could be targeting the tests better though so it could be that

You only need to read the news to know that testing is being targeted at problem areas and see reports of work related clusters

Obviously lockdown easing caused more cases too but overall modelling isn't indicating widespread worsening situation.

No one is expecting us to get to zero cases are they?

Some people are

The whole point of this was to protect the NHS and not overwhelm it. I'm afraid there will be no NHS left if we continue to live like this. This 14 day isolation has been the final nail in the coffin for a lot of people economy wise. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs, their homes and savings this autumn especially once furlough is over. More people are going to die from other illnesses as their treatments were put on hold prioritising Covid treatment. I'm sick and tired of this, watching people lose their jobs and their savings being blown away over a illness that is similar to a flu. Death rates have been overestimated, most people had it mild. Sweden was right and we got it wrong big time. Let's carry on living indoors for decades pro-Covid lockdown supporters, carry on living like this.

Given masks, social distancing, restrictions, increased hygiene and awareness and the vulnerable shielding - it seems mad that thousands are still dying from the flu every month (and more than Covid).

My understanding is that “summer flu” in this context is a shorthand for 100s of viral, bacterial, fungal or even chemically induced respiratory illnesses that are deadly generally only to those who are seriously weakened through other conditions. During the summer, this is not generally due to an influenza virus which is highly seasonal, with most of these illnesses not generally being infectious in terms of human-to-human transmission.

It’s interesting how some people have a very low bar for deciding something is influenza (basically
any respiratory illness), but a very high bar for deciding something is Covid (mustn’t include those whose symptoms tie in clearly with Covid but haven’t had a definitive positive test).

It’s yet another attempt by the “Covid is just the flu” idea to minimise Covid and it’s impact. I’m not necessarily implying it isn’t possible to overstate the impact of Covid (it is possible and I’ve seen it plenty of times on MN) or that some measures taken to tackle is aren’t excessive (they are in some cases i believe) but comparing Covid to flu, let alone saying flu is worse, is a plain misrepresentation of the science.

About “summer flu”.... ONS categorises these deaths as a generic “flu and pneumonia”.

Pre-Covid, the most common cause of pneumonia is the Streptococcus pneumoniaeis bacterium. The influenza virus would often be the gateway for its activation.

It forms part of the normal upper respiratory tract flora - in other words it just lives within us naturally much of the time. As with many natural bacteria that live symbiotically within us, it can become pathogenic under the right conditions, typically when the immune system of the host is suppressed.

So there a relatively small number of “flu/pneumonia“-type illnesses and deaths would continue to occur even if we all lived in hazmat suits, and stayed 100 metres apart from every other human!

As far as I’m aware, there is no evidence there is a “summer” influenza virus that is somehow managing to transmit from human to human in a way Covid isn’t.

The tracing in East Lancs was down to local public health and not the Test and Trace. Other places are now doing their own too which might help.