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Original poster

Have we reached our limit or not?

59 replies

CKBJ · 14/08/2020 13:51

It was only a couple of weeks ago we were being told we had reached our limit in opening things up and possibly opened too much. There was talk of closing pubs and non essential retail to allow schools to reopen. What’s changed? Have I missed something? Tomorrow more things will be allowed to open and the restart of the trial of audiences watching sport, etc. I haven’t seen anyone in the media question the science behind the latest unlocking and where is the opposition party? Far too quiet. It seem all the government wants to do is divert from the exam fiasco and the new quarantine measures!

OP posts:
Orchidsindoors · 14/08/2020 18:57

"On 31st July it looked like cases might be rising but in the last 2 weeks the number of infections appears to have plateaued hence opening things again."

Plateaued?!! Which data are you looking at? Its rising massively, it was 1400 odd cases today. Risen rapidly over the last few days.

Nellodee · 14/08/2020 19:01

We have a certain budget we can spend of distancing. We want to spend enough so that we can preserve some kind of functioning economy AND get schools back. Johnson says he wants to get schools back, but what he is actually doing is getting the economy back on track more, and more, and more, and as much as he possibly can, until it becomes obvious he's gone too far, and then (you'd imagine) he'll pull it back in, preferably with his local "whack-a-mole" restrictions.

The problem with this approach is that by that time we get to school opening, we'll be well into the "pull it back in" phase, and school might end up being one of the things that has to be "pulled back in" to get things under control.

It's a gamble. I can see that test and trace has improved massively since the early days. We do seem to be catching clusters, rather than explosions.

I just think that I would prefer a more cautious policy, rather than "We'll know how far is too far once we've gone past it."

Nellodee · 14/08/2020 19:05

@CoffeeandCroissant It looks as though influenza is grouped in with pneumonia as a cause of death on those figures. Would influenza be likely to be the largest cause of pneumonia? Do all flu figures always include pneumonia?

CoffeeandCroissant · 14/08/2020 19:07

@Orchidsindoors

"There is some evidence of a small increase in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in July, following a low point in June, but this appears to have now levelled off."
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales14august2020

Today's higher figure is largely due to the cluster from the Northampton food factory.

CoffeeandCroissant · 14/08/2020 19:12

@Nellodee

Not sure, I also wondered that.

As regards Covid and pneumonia, it says
"death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category."

Nellodee · 14/08/2020 19:16

It seems a little odd to group the two together. They're kind of the same effect, but not necessarily the same cause? There is so much data, and it serves so many purposes, we can't expect to have the answer to every single query we make in the exact form we want it, the moment we want it.

One of my big discoveries over this pandemic has been what an absolute national treasure we have in the ONS.

Orchidsindoors · 14/08/2020 19:26

Coffeeandcroissant

10 Aug 816
11 Aug 1148
12 Aug 1009
13 Aug 1129
14 Aug 1441

That's not levelling off. That's an increase.

NothingIsWrong · 14/08/2020 19:29

Extract from the Times article on this, using ONS statistics.

Have we reached our limit or not?
Original poster
CKBJ · 14/08/2020 19:30

Have there been more daily tests to account for the increase?

OP posts:
Nellodee · 14/08/2020 19:33

@Willow2017 those figures put influenza and pneumonia together. Pneumonia can be both bacterial and viral. Those figures do not separate the one from the other. Saying that they are all due to flu is definitely wrong. We have no way of knowing what proportion are flu and what proportion are bacterial. The data just doesn't go there.

Yes, more people are dying from pneumonia currently. No, they're not all necessarily dying from flu.

Nellodee · 14/08/2020 19:37

I think the ONS are basing their figures for prevalence in the community from them doing testing on random samples they have chosen, rather than from the people who are going for tests because they think they might have Covid. Because their samples are random, they have much lower percentages of positive cases, but they have enough data to think that nation wide, community cases are dropping.

It would be perfectly possible to have community cases dropping, whilst having clusters growing. It's a bit like a game of battle ships, where the positive tests, the clusters, are the ships, and the overall prevalence is the misses.

Orchidsindoors · 14/08/2020 19:38

There are more tests because there are more cases, surely?

KitKatastrophe · 14/08/2020 19:40

@Orchidsindoors

There are more tests because there are more cases, surely?
No the test positivity rate has remained quite static.
Orchidsindoors · 14/08/2020 19:55

"No the test positivity rate has remained quite static."

No the number of positive results have increased,this week, and have been increasing for weeks, from 400 up to what we have now. That's not static.

Bombergirl · 14/08/2020 20:22

I’ve had pneumonia. Was in hospital for a long time. It’s not the flu. Far from it. Using figures that include it with the flu to say the flu kills more than Covid is inaccurate.

Bombergirl · 14/08/2020 20:24

I also agree with the poster who said deaths can be registered as both pneumonia and Covid. As happened with my relative.

PleasantVille · 14/08/2020 20:31

@Orchidsindoors

"No the test positivity rate has remained quite static."

No the number of positive results have increased,this week, and have been increasing for weeks, from 400 up to what we have now. That's not static.

The number of positive tests increasing doesn't mean the number of infections is increasing. Testing is being increased and targeted in local hot spots, an increase is absolutely to be expected

The ONS data isn't showing significant increases

amicissimma · 14/08/2020 20:38

If a death is registered as both pneumonia and Covid it is ony counted as Covid.

Can you explain what you mean by "I’ve had pneumonia. Was in hospital for a long time. It’s not the flu. Far from it."?

Pneumonia can be caused by flu. It's one of the ways in which flu kills. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that pneumonia caused by one pathogen presents differently from pneumonia caused by another.

KitKatastrophe · 14/08/2020 21:08

@Orchidsindoors

"No the test positivity rate has remained quite static."

No the number of positive results have increased,this week, and have been increasing for weeks, from 400 up to what we have now. That's not static.

Test positivity rate not number of positive tests. This means for every 100 tests taken, how many are coming back positive.

The test positivity rate has remained at around 0.6 (6 positive tests per 1000 tests done). This indicates that more cases are being found because more tests are being done, not the other way round.

KitKatastrophe · 14/08/2020 21:14

More info on this from John's Hopkins www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

And graph of UK positivity rate since early July showing little variation. I'm sure I read somewhere that WHO suggests a test positivity rate of 5 or less suggests good control over the virus

Have we reached our limit or not?
Bombergirl · 14/08/2020 21:21

It’s not just the flu. For me it was a cough that turned into pneumonia. I meant it’s far worse than flu. I was hospitalised. If I’d died it’d have been from pneumonia not a cough. Sorry for not being clearer.

My auntie had both listed (pneumonia and Covid).

Previously it was leaked that drd were being advised to record pneumonia not Covid when both were present at death. So the opposite. They could record both though if they wished. This may have changed.

drive.google.com/file/d/12msB_73qgmY2ZQwsUvkPyyEsFxo4kYNc/view

KitKatastrophe · 14/08/2020 21:35

If I’d died it’d have been from pneumonia not a cough
But then surely you could say the same of many covid deaths. They died of pneumonia, not covid.

Bombergirl · 14/08/2020 22:57

Covid is very different to a cough! A cough doesn’t attack organs and cause blood clots and completely attack the lungs, my head is hurting from the silliness and obtuseness of this so I’ll wish you all good night now. Have a good weekend.