Problems with COVID figures

[Northernsoulgirl45]

So the Govt are unable to provide figures for COVID infections today . A cynical person would think it is because the figures are bad.
Thoughts appreciated

@AnaadiNitya From your link....... Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute

So according to you, we base policy on one article and the authors opinion? there is no indication of the numbers involved or even if PHE actually add up these non related CV deaths.

As i said, all you are doing is spreading unsubstantiated hearsay.

Certainly care home have had massive excess death figures but many of the excess weren't recorded as COVID and this could potentially be due to lack of a test.
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/deaths-in-care-homes-what-do-the-numbers-tell-us

Infection figures follow test figures. Means nothing. The important question is whether people are catching Covid and dying in large numbers.
They are not. Hospitals are EMPTY.

@jasjas1973

The reality is that this is the policy used by PHE. It's not some conspiracy to minimise Covid deaths, principally because it is accepted that the total number of deaths is unlikely to change significantly.

The policy being reviewed and will hopefully change soon meaning the daily figures are more meaningful.

The daily

What I don't understand with the conspiracy theory that 'they' are trying to terrify us with the infection rates is - why do you think they are doing this?

All conspiracy theories are the same, a long explanation of how we are being lied to, but no explanation of why, when it is in no one's interest to do it!

Scottish government give the percentage of positive tests. Apparently if less than 5% of tests are positive it means the epidemic is under control according to WHO.

I really think it’s time all these figures stopped being published daily. What good does it do?

@Noextremes2017

Infection figures follow test figures. Means nothing. The important question is whether people are catching Covid and dying in large numbers. They are not. Hospitals are EMPTY.

Yes, because younger people are mostly getting it. If older people get it in big numbers, hospitals will fill up again. This is just the medical reality of covid.

@SengaStrawberry

Scottish government give the percentage of positive tests. Apparently if less than 5% of tests are positive it means the epidemic is under control according to WHO.

I really think it’s time all these figures stopped being published daily. What good does it do?

It means we are transparent which is one of the key features of good government. Nothing should be hidden.

Those who don't want the statistics should look away, but I want to see clearly.

Only dictators hide things from their citizens.

why should i believe a random mumsnetter?

@Noextremes2017

Infection figures follow test figures. Means nothing. The important question is whether people are catching Covid and dying in large numbers. They are not. Hospitals are EMPTY.

but the figures are rising, so how can you say they wont die in large numbers again?

[quote jasjas1973]@AnaadiNitya From your link....... Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute

So according to you, we base policy on one article and the authors opinion? there is no indication of the numbers involved or even if PHE actually add up these non related CV deaths.

As i said, all you are doing is spreading unsubstantiated hearsay.[/quote]
That was a weak come bac - and you know it. The author is Carl Heneghan, who is a British general practitioner, scientist and physician , director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Which I’ll add again - is the U.K. no.1 leading research centre.

So not just gossip from sue and Barry next door or Brenda in the newspaper shop. This is a credible scientist and GP whos main focus is evidence based finding and teaching again, in the U.K. no.1 leading research in medicine in Oxford.

This is credible. Sorry your so pig headed to accept it.

Maybe be tone down on the pithy and ‘lol’ ‘riiiiiiiight’ remarks as tbh it makes you an idiot.

I won’t be replying to you again if you cannot except quality findings/reports and brush them off as ‘gossip’

but the figures are rising, so how can you say they wont die in large numbers again?

Well you can’t really you can just keep a close eye on the hospital admissions. Hospital admissions are are their lowest, so that means either the new cases are asymptotic or don’t serious enough for a hospital admission. The hospitals are not full to bursting point so they do have capacity to admit people.

What has happened to Hancocks review into the figures from PHE ? and why would the Govt (PHE is a govt run agency) keep using this data as its hardly flattering?

Unless of course the data is actually reliable? Remember from Whitty to Van Tam & numerous Govt ministers inc Johnson have all quoted these figures, day in day out, yet apparently these are all wrong.

@AnaadiNitya

I don't agree that new infections mean nothing.

If you are comparing today's new infections with new infections in March - then yes, these are not comparable as there is, to your point, much more testing occurring now compared to March. So the two time periods are not comparable. So yes your point is accurate in this scenario.

But for those interested in what is happening now in their local area, or whether the number of infections is increasing compared to last week - then results of testing data are both valid and highly informative.

It is a relief, in my opinion, that the government is undertaking so many tests (finally) and I don't believe this should result in increased suspicion in the data released - quite the opposite.

With more testing, we get clarity on what is happening at a local level - something that has been long overdue, in my opinion.

It is reassuring that hospital admissions and deaths are lower than the rise in cases. However these do usually take 2-3 weeks to rise following a rise in cases. I’m hoping they don’t rise too much though because the rise in cases is in younger groups not the over 65s. I think the elderly and vulnerable are still being cautious in the main.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8615423/Coronavirus-infection-rates-rising-age-groups-65-Public-Health-England-data-shows.html

I keep seeing people blame it on a rise in testing but the rise in cases is sharper than a rise in testing, which is actually roughly plateauing at the mo.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.80368535.1879793525.1597140539-444045916.1596346567

AnaadiNitya I am not dismissing that article but it is not peer reviewed, it provides no evidence of your assertions and as far as i can see, no other organisation backs it up, you appear to be claiming that SAGE/Govt have been operating on false data?

Hancock ordered a review 4 weeks ago, plenty of time to have decided that the figures are unreliable, if not enough time to produce correct ones.

The review is ongoing.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/three-coronavirus-death-tolls-as-authorities-disagree-x7tk3tms7

The issue is only with PHE data for deaths outside of hospital. The ONS data is solid. That states that 60% of Covid deaths are taking place in hospitals. Straightforward maths tells us that if on Tuesday there were 6 Covid deaths in hospital (60% of the total according to ONS) but the total figure released is 106 deaths something has gone wrong somewhere.

I don’t think they should be unfindable or hidden @latticechaos but perhaps published weekly instead of daily. All daily figures are doing now is giving likes of the DM the opportunity to whip up shite on a more frequent basis. There comes a point we just have to accept this virus as part of the everyday risks of living we all have to put up with. We don’t publish case and death rates for all other illnesses/causes of death so how long is it going to be reasonable to keep doing it for Covid for? We’ll never get back to any semblance of normal if Covid is headline news forever.

I think that at the moment when we’re trying to figure out the balance of reopening society and schools open on three weeks, it is very right that we still see data on cases etc.

There comes a point we just have to accept this virus as part of the everyday risks of living we all have to put up with.

We don't have to that is your policy preference. I would prefer the country adopted a zero covid policy, as the risk of flare ups if we try to just ignore the virus is too great, especially for the economy.

We don't publish other statistics because those illnesses are not the same in terms of impact or our lack of understanding.

Imo it would be both sinister and foolish to stop reporting our cases daily as we head into our first covid winter.

I understand that many people are struggling to deal with the long lasting nature of this issue, but we are where we are and switching off the statistics snacks of just wanting to hide from the problem.

Oops, snacks = smacks

We’ll never get back to any semblance of normal if Covid is headline news forever.

Sorry meant to add - we need to get to actual normality, not a pretence. Covid is headline news because it is serious.

We had Iraq war headlines for years. Because it was serious.

My issue is not so much with the daily reporting of figures generally but that the death data is so skewed at the moment by the PHE reporting issues so as to be basically meaningless and the case data is released with limited context. Data without context doesn't actually tell you very much.

[quote Bombergirl]Cases are rising at a far higher rate than tests.

I keep hearing it’s because of more testing but that’s not the case.

Look here and compare the last week’s tests graph to cases one.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.80368535.1879793525.1597140539-444045916.1596346567[/quote]
This. The ADs don't like reality though.

I agree on the zero Covid policy, but that still means living with the risk of the virus. That’s not going to make it disappear.