Never has a virus been so oversold

[StitchInLime]

A friend just sent this article from The Spectator to our Whatssap group and I have to confess, I'm struggling to counter the statements made in it.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/never-has-a-virus-been-so-oversold

HAS this virus been oversold? Now we have a better understanding of it, is it time to relax a bit?

Or is this article wrong? And if so, how (no need to get into debate about the author and source, but I mean the quoted stats)? I feel I need to argue against it in the Whatssap group but am struggling with how.

Why countries/the WHO put so much emphasis on these bullshit numbers baffles me. The fewer tests you do, the fewer cases you find, so the countries with the least effective testing regimes look like they're managing the virus comparatively well. Why does no one really talk about that?

Completely agree.
I read somewhere recently about the ‘recent rise in cases’ in the UK being misleading... if you took the positive cases as a percentage of total tests taken, it remained about the same.
As you say - do more testing, find more cases.

If the current rough estimate I read that up to 70% of people could be asymptotic as well... you completely change the data. People mainly only get tested if they have symptoms. Based on a very crude estimate - if there were 1000 positive tests done, this could mean that there could be a further 4000 asymptotic people walking about, nine the wiser. And this doesn’t include people who have symptoms and don’t get tested... The point with this is, if that many people are actually wondering about with Covid- why hasn’t there been a huge spike in deaths since lockdown restrictions ended??

Exactly @Ethelfleda. The numbers are bullshit, the interpretation of them is, at best, misleading and with so many apparently asymptomatic we have no real idea how many people nation/worldwide have already had Covid. But the good news is that that being the case the lethality of this virus is almost certainly massively overstated.

What IS worrying, IMO, is the quite high number of previously healthy adults who get this 'long tail version' of Covid, whereby they suffer from long-term, serious health problems, including heart, lung and brain damage, after the initial illness.

@zafferana

All the numbers are bullshit. We've had multiple thousands more cases than have ever been counted, because in March/April it was impossible to get a test if you were a non-essential worker, so our case/death counts are way off and it looks a lot more lethal as a result.

The death figures are misleading too, because anyone who has ever had a +ve Covid test is currently counted, whether it was the cause of death or not.

Why countries/the WHO put so much emphasis on these bullshit numbers baffles me. The fewer tests you do, the fewer cases you find, so the countries with the least effective testing regimes look like they're managing the virus comparatively well. Why does no one really talk about that? There's a reason that many western countries are talked about as having the worst case of CV-19 - and that's because most now have the capacity to carry out lots of tests and they are honest about those figures and about the number of deaths (even though the method for counting those deaths varies).

But whichever set of sstats you look at - deaths per million pop, total deaths, excess mortality, whether you use PHE figures or ONS figures, the picture is the same - the UK has done poorly in comparison to most other European countries.

stats!

@Ethelfleda

Why countries/the WHO put so much emphasis on these bullshit numbers baffles me. The fewer tests you do, the fewer cases you find, so the countries with the least effective testing regimes look like they're managing the virus comparatively well. Why does no one really talk about that?

Completely agree.
I read somewhere recently about the ‘recent rise in cases’ in the UK being misleading... if you took the positive cases as a percentage of total tests taken, it remained about the same.
As you say - do more testing, find more cases.

If the current rough estimate I read that up to 70% of people could be asymptotic as well... you completely change the data. People mainly only get tested if they have symptoms. Based on a very crude estimate - if there were 1000 positive tests done, this could mean that there could be a further 4000 asymptotic people walking about, nine the wiser. And this doesn’t include people who have symptoms and don’t get tested... The point with this is, if that many people are actually wondering about with Covid- why hasn’t there been a huge spike in deaths since lockdown restrictions ended??

As far as I’m aware the small upturn in cases in the U.K. correlates with an increase in the % of tests coming back positive. The ONS sampling survey also showed an increase and that uses the same size sample. It was a small increase but it’s there.

Is the 70% asymptomatic or pre symptomatic or a mixture of both?

The WHO is packed full of epidemiologists who do this for a living. I’m sure they are capable of understandable no the limitations of the data they have available and how to work with that.

ibake thé virus hasn’t gone away though, and while we have some treatment options we’re still a long way off having a treatment for covid. If we relax all the regulations and just rely on social distancing the numbers will shoot back up again and we’ll be back where we started. And the only solution will be lockdowns either in affected areas or nationally.

Some people just will not accept that it isn't just about deaths! Young and healthy people are experiencing long-term symptoms, just read the long-term Covid thread. I'm one of them; admittedly I wasn't fit and healthy; I'm 50 and overweight, which is one key factor, and I already had CFS after I had bad flu last year which turned into pneumonia.

I'm finally getting better, after 5 months. But I appear to have had neurological damage, I get confused and disorientated and forget simple words and names. I've also seemingly developed allergies and am constantly sneezing which causes chest pains.

This is a more worrying aspect than the death rate, IMO.

There need to be restrictions. Not panic, just sensible precautions. I absolutely want schools to open, because my DDs need routine and some form of 'new normal'. But testing and tracing needs to improve.

Read where?
Completely agree.
I read somewhere recently about the ‘recent rise in cases’ in the UK being misleading... if you took the positive cases as a percentage of total tests taken, it remained about the same.
As you say - do more testing, find more cases

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.80368535.1879793525.1597140539-444045916.1596346567

Very recently cases seem to be rising and testing not so much.

Why hasn't there been a huge spike in deaths
I presume because most of the susceptible have already been taken, or in other words the fire has already consumed the easy kindling?
Coupled with better treatment protocols?

Why hasn't there been a huge spike in deaths?

Several reasons: PPE is now widely available and widely used in hospitals and care homes, infection control is much better in those locations too, all patients being discharged from hospital are now tested before being discharged to care homes, many of the new cases are young people who are much less likely to get really sick and die. I'm not convinced that there is a shortage of 'easy kindling' tbh - there are 3.2 million people in the UK who are over 80 and many more with the kind of health conditions that make them very vulnerable.

I appreciate that the phrase easy kindling is unkind but I'm using it because I think the fire metaphor is apt
In order to be kindling for the fire you need to
1-burn easily
And
2-be in situations where the fire can get to you
I presume that most of those who burn easily are now out of reach of the fire?

Or

1. Have reckless arsonists around, not caring where they drop their lit cigarettes

The 7 percent probably says more about the nations maths abilities.
I’d say most people could provide the top line figure of the number of people who have died.

@Northernsoulgirl45

Very recently cases seem to be rising and testing not so much.

We have the 5th highest test rate in the world! Only beaten by USA China India and Russia whos populations are far higher than us. Our tests per population is the highest out of those 5 countries and head shoulders over our closest European countries. We are testing!

OP, feel free to direct your WhatsApp group to this Twitter thread showing the COVID-19 mass graves around the world, including London.
twitter.com/jonshaffer/status/1293262830934753280

That's for those who are only persuaded by the death count, of course. Many people are far more worried about the burden of long term ill-health (five months and counting for some), as yet unknown health impacts that may emerge and, of course, the now growing body of evidence of reinfection/reactivation around the world.

If anything, this virus was undersold - "just mild, the sniffles or flu-like symptoms for 2-weeks, you can keep it at bay by washing your hands".

I agree we are testing lots. However the graphs suggest that cases are now riising at a higher rate than testing.

I read somewhere recently about the ‘recent rise in cases’ in the UK being misleading... if you took the positive cases as a percentage of total tests taken, it remained about the same

I was disputing this claim as it no longer appears valid.

I think they're finding more asymptomatic positives than before. There's a shop in my area where 1 staff member tested positive so the rest of the staff were tested as a precaution some where found to be positive without any symptoms. The asymptomatic cases have always been there we just didn't count them for obvious reasons previously.

I’m sick of everyone focusing on deaths and ignoring the longer term effects some people are experiencing.

Oh yes the "mild" cases were well oversold, mac12.

@lilylion

I’m sick of everyone focusing on deaths and ignoring the longer term effects some people are experiencing.

There's also long term effects that some are suffering indirectly from this such as job losses which can lead to poverty and homelessness, businesses have crumbled, medical advice and treatments delayed for other illnesses, mental health has deterioratied .Only time will tell how this has impacted on our children's education and future prospects. Many people in one way or another will suffer some kind of long term effect from covid

@Uhoh2020

Absolutely spot on! Even those supposedly with minor symptoms may also have long term as yet unknown medical issues and not just respiratory related as other viral organs may be damages too.

The non direct medical but economic and social damage especially long term is yet to be determined.

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia its unfortunate that it will be many years before we can establish whether it was all worth it or not.

Why hasn't there been a huge spike in deaths?

Since March, with the notable exception of care homes, those who are vulnerable have largely been carefully socially distancing, shielding even.