Never has a virus been so oversold

[StitchInLime]

A friend just sent this article from The Spectator to our Whatssap group and I have to confess, I'm struggling to counter the statements made in it.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/never-has-a-virus-been-so-oversold

HAS this virus been oversold? Now we have a better understanding of it, is it time to relax a bit?

Or is this article wrong? And if so, how (no need to get into debate about the author and source, but I mean the quoted stats)? I feel I need to argue against it in the Whatssap group but am struggling with how.

Ask the Swedes. I'm pretty sure they'll be happy to fill you in on how daily life has changed for them under the legislation changes and guidelines and recommendations.

You do realise that during the Spanish flu schools here closed, along with other things, social distancing was in place and people wore masks, right?

Spot on!

@DasPepe - spot in with your comment on bc “lockdown privilege”.

I saw two widows yesterday, 3 months ago they lived with their dh’s of 50+ years.

Now their widowed, they’ve had to go into residential care because it’s harder to cope when you’ve looked after each other & ones already sold her home.

They were both shell shocked by it.

But their dh’s were old so low hanging fruit according to some of you so that’s ok.

@DasPepe

The utter hypocisy is bewildering. I’d like to call it “lockdown privilege”. Not one person who has agreed with this mess of arguments, has revealed that they or someone they know has been in face sick with Covid. So whilst lockdown was not great, these people have benefited from it by not being exposed. Not one person has said “oh yes, my DM has passed away but I mean she was always going to die for eventually”.

The true selfishness of humanity comes out: from wars, unstable governments, through financial insecurity and homelessness, cancer and virus: if it doesn’t affect YOU it’s not a problem.

I see where you are coming from but equally I dont think it's as straightforward to say people who disagree with lockdown lack humanity. I agree that lockdown was a necessity to begin with but I feel that with regards school it went on far too long. I feel absolutely sickened about what no doubt some children and young people will have gone through behind closed doors through 5 months of no school - no safe place to go to, no kind adults to speak to, no break from abuse and horrors.

But does my stance (we needed to get back to school to protect these kids) mean that I lack more humanity than the posters clamouring for schools to stay shut because otherwise more people could die from Covid?

I don't know but just pointing out that it's not as simple. There are 2 sides to this and a balance of lives to think about unfortunately.

I'm not clamouring for schools to stay shut. If you've spotted me on other threads you'll know that DC will be returning.

I am telling people to avoid being fucking heartless, because 'low hanging fruit' and/or their parents are on this thread - and indeed any thread on MN

These foul comments about "they were all going to die anyway so why should I...." have been rife on MN since March. It's extraordinary to think there are sentient human beings in our midst who actually believe that just because someone was 75 they are expendable so long as younger people don't have to wear a mask. Etc.

Some people just have dirty souls I guess.

I'd be interested to see if they're the same posters not wanting to send their children to school in September. Because I've seen some Covid sociopath deniers on MN saying they're worried. Which is odd.

I was listening to an American doctor address a similar claim. She said that her hospital has had 160 ventilated patients at one time, that they had to convert paediatric intensive care and other floors of the hospital into adult ICU beds, only treating Covid patients and that this has never happened for any other illness.

How is that hype?

Dirty souls

So sad, so true

It is an interesting question and, in some ways annoyingly, COVID is on the cusp of morbidity to make how we deal with it a valid debate. If it were even twice as deadly and infectious, I don’t think anyone would question aggressive measures being taken. On the other hand, halve or quarter the infectivity and morbidity and i think we would mostly agree to just carry on as normal.

I think the key is that it is a novel virus and, although we know a lot more than we did in March, there is still a lot to learn about Covid19.

People have short memories and I am not sure how many who are now saying (shouting) that we overreacted were applauding Boris when he said we wanted herd immunity and many would have to accept losing loved ones in the process.

What is true is that the NHS was close to overwhelmed (I think it was) and that, had we not locked down, it would have been completely overwhelmed. We did need to buy time as we were unprepared.

As of right now, we seem to be quite lucky in the U.K. with a relatively stable number of cases. Maybe there is more herd immunity than we think. After all, after Wuhan, London was the logical ‘Corona central’ and many many people report being ill over that period and untested.

We will have to see what happens when schools reopen. We will either be seen to have dodged a bullet or things will quickly become quite unpleasant again.

I do think that, on the whole, governments have been following best expert advice. What frustrates people is that they want certainty and scientists are not currently in a position to provide it.

I wish Lionel Shriver the best of luck in the states as the biker rally of 250,000+, many unmasked and middle aged, takes place this week.

Lionel Shriver, the literary equivalent of Katie Hopkins, writes an article that is published in the Spectator where Mary Wakefield happens to a commissioning editor.
Hmm I wonder what the motivating factors behind this could be...

I think I’ll go with my, and my husband’s and my friends’ experiences of front line work in the NHS in April and May of this year to decide on the disputed over selling of this virus.

It's extraordinary to think there are sentient human beings in our midst who actually believe that just because someone was 75 they are expendable so long as younger people don't have to wear a mask. Etc

But it isn’t just the over 75s

Even if you survive it there is no telling what damage it does to you long term.

Exactly. But MN over the last few months has certainly shown its demographic to be largely made up of those who believe it's only the elderly, and the young or relatively young shouldn't be asked to make any contribution to halting the spread.

Even if you survive...... like 99.9% of the population

As said the thing with the masks is not new... Photo from 1918

Referring to the comment about BJs favoured SPAD and his little jaunt north and the comment above "this isn’t addressed in any Spectator articles that I’ve seen," his wife did, however publish a touching and devoted account of how ill she and her husband were from the virus in the Spectator which was picked up by Radio 4 in the Thought for the Day spot....I remember listening to it and thinking how different it was from most Thought for the Day pieces I've heard.

@ACautionaryTale

The 7% who died are part of what is scientifically referred to as low hanging fruit

They would have died regardless

The health workers who died are low hanging fruit? Also, death is only part of the equation. Two people I know in their 50s, previously fully active, previously fully employed have been left with major health issues after contracting Covid. They will likely require treatment for years.

@Slubberdegullion

Lionel Shriver, the literary equivalent of Katie Hopkins, writes an article that is published in the Spectator where Mary Wakefield happens to a commissioning editor. Hmm I wonder what the motivating factors behind this could be...

I think I’ll go with my, and my husband’s and my friends’ experiences of front line work in the NHS in April and May of this year to decide on the disputed over selling of this virus.

Couldn't agree more.

Well said Slubbers.

I think people who think it’s all been unnecessarily hyped up and Covid is not that bad are just really trying to convince themselves and want it to be true. It’s not though

I don’t think many would want to be Brazil

Oth if we’d all done a NZ in early days where would we be?

If we have to do it U.K. way though, I’d get more like Germany and be better at handling it

Age is by far the number one factor in determining how seriously someone is affected by Covid. How can anyone dispute that?

Around 20% of all Covid related deaths in the U.K. are among the over 90s, who make up approximately 0.5% of the population. Although even among the very elderly if you catch coronavirus you are more likely to survive than not.

Dmil 96, in a care home with dementia had Corona and recovered.
She only had what the nurses described as a very mild cold for a few days

Ds 18 and perfectly healthy couldn’t get out of bed for several days and was knocked out with it.

Friend of a friend, mid 40s and another in her circle of friends. Both with no underlying health issues died

Whilst you might be ok, there isn’t a guarantee.

I get tired of people on here calling anybody who does not support this continued lockdown despicable, vile, murderous and the all the other names that have been levelled at us. If this was about saving lives by the measures that we are taking with no other impact elsewhere then you would have no argument with me.

However, this week an ONS study came out that calculated that for every 3 covid deaths (and we know lots of those are with covid not of covid) they are now suggesting an additional 2 deaths have been caused by lockdown. At what point would you accept that it can't be covid at the expense of all other lives? 50:50? 3:2 the other way. Please bear in mind that, due to the main demographic on here, those deaths are more likely to be us than covid eg a smear test that hasn't happened, a routine breast screen, the blood in your urine you haven't been able to have checked out. And there I'm only talking about cancer (of which 450 people a day die in this country but how much larger is that number going to get?)

Now let's consider all the other health conditions that people have died of during lockdown - the heart attacks, the strokes, the suicides.

Now let's think about the effects of unemployment on long term health.

The risk to children in abusive homes who haven't been adequately monitored over the last few months.

The list goes on and on and on.

That is why I don't believe it can be covid against all other factors and that is where you get people such as myself who think it has been an overreaction. We have shut the country, which was probably the right thing to do initially, because we just didn't know how bad it was going to get. The data now tells us a very different picture. Including what is likely to happen in the future if we don't move forwards.

There is no right answer as all scenarios involve death and none of us like a Hobson's Choice scenario. The powers that be do put value on life ordinarily though using metrics such as QALYs. NICE does it all the time with an NHS budget that has to be distributed in a way that is as fair as possible because we can't treat everyone. What I don't really understand is how this system isn't currently being used so we are choosing a course of action to protect people where the average age of death is in the 80's over a screening programme that would save a young mother in her 30's. And yes, not all victims are in their 80's and there have been some tragedies, as there are every single day when someone dies too young eg from meningitis, chicken pox or other viral infections.

I don't believe we should make decisions on a micro level as we all have stories of a friend or relative who became a statistic and it's emotional and harrowing so we can't be objective.

Society must make decisions at a macro level with all factors weighed up against each other and the human emotion taken out of it. For the life of me I cannot understand why most governments around the world aren't doing this.

If my views, in your eyes, make me an evil granny killer then so be it. MN is about as polarised as it's ever been right now. I'm entitled to my view and my view is that lockdown is now doing more harm than good and that is bad for all of us.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjustedlifee_year

@Ibake I completely agree with you