Never has a virus been so oversold

[StitchInLime]

A friend just sent this article from The Spectator to our Whatssap group and I have to confess, I'm struggling to counter the statements made in it.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/never-has-a-virus-been-so-oversold

HAS this virus been oversold? Now we have a better understanding of it, is it time to relax a bit?

Or is this article wrong? And if so, how (no need to get into debate about the author and source, but I mean the quoted stats)? I feel I need to argue against it in the Whatssap group but am struggling with how.

*The 7% who died are part of what is scientifically referred to as low hanging fruit. They would have died regardless“.

What an incredibly insensitive and hurtful thing to write, not to mention untrue. Yes, lots of people in nursing homes died, but most deaths were outside of those settings, and very many had an expected lifespan of many years.

The Asian flu killed 2-4 million without lockdown. Covid has killed 730k with massive global disruption and an unprecedented recession. So it does seem like a reasonable comparison.

Covid has killed that to date with lockdown... It’s not a final figure. Your comment reminds me of people back in early March who’d say “what’s all the fuss, it’s only killed 15 people” or whatever.

If we carried on as though it were flu, the impact would have been far, far worse. We had 100% excess deaths in April - unprecedented and bad enough.... but Bergamo in Italy had 800-900% excess deaths in March before people had realised what was happening where they actually were treating it like the flu.... and they locked down before it had done completely swept through.... If we’d have let that happen in the U.K., we’d be close to the 500,000 deaths quoted by Imperial College back in March (extrapolate Bergamo and you get quite close), many of whom wouldn’t have been Covid but died due to healthcare completely breaking down - far, far worse than the problems we did experience.

As another poster wrote, if we had tried to carry on, we’d have locked ourselves away eventually as we faced catastrophe.

Covid has killed 730k

Also, that’s deaths from confirmed positive cases.... The actual Covid death toll is far higher, especially in places like Latin America and India. The Asian Flu deaths were based on estimates.

It is an over hyped virus.

It's tricky to make these comparisons because covid is new. No one can be certain what is going to happen. Right now one might argue that the death toll isn't so bad when compared to other pandemics (I'm not sure that I would agree but I can atleast see why someone may think that) but will that still be the case this time next year? Or even this time in 3 months? What if this is still going on in 10 years? What if the vaccine is a disaster?

I'm not saying any of that stuff will happen. I'm just saying that it's really early in the day to be declaring this objectively better or worse than other things. I also don't really see what the point of that is - I'm sure having Ebola is much worse than having bone cancer. It doesn't mean that bone cancer isn't awful and that we shouldn't bother doing anything about it.

And the actual death toll is inflated due to the way they record covid death.

The 7% who died are part of what is scientifically referred to as low hanging fruit. They would have died regardless

I know a couple of people through a friend who died.

They shouldn’t have died. 40-50 year olds who were perfectly healthy people. No health issues.

I think I have had this virus and have only been ill once before in my life where I didn’t think I was going to make it. Even now I am terrified of getting even a cold this winter as I don’t think my lungs or heart will cope with another coughing fit.

FFS

There are studies that are suggesting long term heart damage in a high percent of people recovered from Covid.

Studies will still be in their early stages so hopefully it turns out not to be the case.

But it just shows that we don’t know the long term effects of having contracted Covid.

it compares how many died from the Asian flu of 1957 with how many died from covid and it forgets that this is how many died from covid despite the whole world going into lockdown

This. I didn't even bother reading the whole article cos this bit in the very first paragraph made it so clear that it was all going to be a load of bollocks.

I think Ms Shriver needs to restrict herself to talking about Kevin

@notalwaysalondoner

This article sums up how I feel.

The Asian flu killed 2-4 million without lockdown. Covid has killed 730k with massive global disruption and an unprecedented recession. So it does seem like a reasonable comparison. I think social media caused a kind of social contagion among governments where they all essentially copied each other, leading to lockdowns everywhere because that is what the first few countries did. I also think that modern life is so safe people are unaccustomed to living with any kind of new risk, and so massively panicked when a new one came along. I read that for the average person under 65 (statistically including those with health issues) driving 160 miles is more dangerous than Covid. I appreciate it’s scary for old or sick people, but I don’t think in the long term the whole of society should shut down to protect the few, due to the multiplied long term damage it will have due to unemployment, tax revenues falling, austerity etc. I wholeheartedly agree with her premise that in any other era this virus would have gone basically under the radar.

And I have an Oxbridge science degree and masters so don’t say I don’t understand the science or stats.

Given that the Asian flu killed 2-4 million people without lockdown and the 730K from Covid has been suppressed by the lockdown and mitigation strategies, how have you come to the conclusion that the article sums up how you feel? Particularly since at the point of lockdown in many places the infection and death numbers were growing exponentially. With an infection rate that doubles every 3 days where there are outbreaks and lots of places introducing measures, I can't see how the number of deaths would stay below 4 million if you decide it's over-hyped and just to give it free rein.

I think sometimes numbers can become a bit meaningless, and data can be skewed to fit the narrative you are trying to push. For example, the %s they cite are correct, but, if you view it as for every American alive at the start of the pandemic, 1 in 2000 has died of covid. That's quite startling. I do agree that some services and treatments shouldn't have been paused, but if anyone would have liked to have gone through this without a lockdown, they are the ones who don't understand maths, science and medicine.

@MotheringShites

Without the internet it would have been impossible for all those people to WFH. We would have had to get on with it.

Yes, also there would have been no online shopping, online learning, 24 hour news or social media so it would have just been a bad virus which would probably just be mentioned on the 6 o'clock news, the internet is to blame for all of this disruption.

Yes, also there would have been no online shopping, online learning, 24 hour news or social media so it would have just been a bad virus which would probably just be mentioned on the 6 o'clock news, the internet is to blame for all of this disruption.

You do realise that during the Spanish flu schools here closed, along with other things, social distancing was in place and people wore masks, right?

@TooTrueToBeGood, you have summed it up perfectly!

There are many to us who feel like this but we don’t generally admit it!

It’s not that I think it’s ok that people have died and some people are more at risk. It’s more that I think the societal “cure” of lockdown with its enormous economical effects, not educating our young and not living is hugely worse. And I am in no doubt this will be seen as a huge mistake in years to come.

And yes I blame social media and crap newspapers for escalating that fear in people

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

There are many to us who feel like this but we don’t generally admit it!

It’s not that I think it’s ok that people have died and some people are more at risk. It’s more that I think the societal “cure” of lockdown with its enormous economical effects, not educating our young and not living is hugely worse. And I am in no doubt this will be seen as a huge mistake in years to come.

And yes I blame social media and crap newspapers for escalating that fear in people

Ask people in Brazil about that.

@Userzzz

And the actual death toll is inflated due to the way they record covid death.

No. The issue is only with PHE's figures, which are thought to have been inflated, but you also have to take into account that there could have also been a fair bit undercounting of the numbers of people with Covid too. PHE data is based on numbers of people testing positive and we know that Covid testing was woeful at the start of the pandemic.

ONS figures are more accurate because the data there relies on what is recorded on the death cert. Excess mortality rates give a better picture also.

But Johnson and co have latched on to the PHE issue so that people will think that it's all not so bad really and has been a bit of a fuss about nothing. It plays nicely into the Covid is a hoax/overstated/invented by lizards narrative. It's all smoke and mirrors.

Maybe the world did over react, it’s possible. But Covid isn’t over yet and I think we won’t really know until next spring. But the fact that it is surging again in some countries that are out of lockdown must be food for thought.

The utter hypocisy is bewildering. I’d like to call it “lockdown privilege”. Not one person who has agreed with this mess of arguments, has revealed that they or someone they know has been in face sick with Covid. So whilst lockdown was not great, these people have benefited from it by not being exposed. Not one person has said “oh yes, my DM has passed away but I mean she was always going to die for eventually”.

The true selfishness of humanity comes out: from wars, unstable governments, through financial insecurity and homelessness, cancer and virus: if it doesn’t affect YOU it’s not a problem.

@soasd

it compares how many died from the Asian flu of 1957 with how many died from covid and it forgets that this is how many died from covid despite the whole world going into lockdown

This. I didn't even bother reading the whole article cos this bit in the very first paragraph made it so clear that it was all going to be a load of bollocks.

Agree. Plus Covid is not over yet, maybe not even half way over,so how can the final death toll from the Asian flu be compared to a pandemic that is ongoing?

I do wonder what the agenda is behind all this? Make people think everything is a-OK so that we end up with the original herd immunity plan after all?

redrum why? I don’t live in Brazil. I might ask the Swedes however!

I imagine the people that feel the virus is oversold have not been affected by it, so can sit there with perfect lungs or without experiencing the loss of a loved one without saying goodbye - have we even considered what it is like to die from covid? The pain and fear of dying alone surrounded by hazmat suited medics. Tens of thousands of people have experienced this in our country.

Even if the figures are revised down slightly - we have lost 45,000 people in the first wave!! How can anyone seriously consider this virus to be 'oversold'.....it is an highly offensive and stupid claim born out from conspiracy theorists that have nothing better to do with their time in a lockdown.

It would be more interesting if they focused their time and efforts discovering how the virus actually started...now that would be worth reading!

Exactly @blurpityblurp. Absolutely vile attitude and do false.

So false