Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Found it. Https:www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/rise-in-uk-covid-cases-above-1000-a-day-breached-government-target

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/rise-in-uk-covid-cases-above-1000-a-day-breached-government-target

Here

@mammon
I saw that too. Probably on the guardian as that is my usual news source

The high deaths figure is still suspect given that the nhs england hospital deaths today was just 6. Plus 2 in wales and none in scotland/NI.

The % positive tests is still v low though, well under the WHO 3% limit

paper referred to in the article is this one:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895847/S0418_Note_on_JBC_and_potential_flows.pdf

Ignore the deaths; just 6 in hospital announced. Hopefully from tomorrow they will be more realistic...

Relatively high cases, though testing looks reasonably high too.

I was wondering whether the very high temperatures we have been having would have raised the number of deaths of the very elderly, who may have been tested for Covid much earlier on in the pandemic.

@BigChocFrenzy

If the Russians or anyone else wanted the Oxford vaccine formulae to produce for themselves, I hope we would have sold it to them at cost - but they should have bloody well asked

‼️

@cantkeepawayforever thank you, I'll have a read.

I think the ONS survey is what should be looked at in terms of countrywide trends. It's just frustrating that it has such a wide margin of error.

Have we had official confirmation on the 28/60day thing? I've seen in widely in the press but that doesn't seem to mean much at moment

patricia I don't understand why only the hospital deaths matter? Surely it's all about rolling averages and trends? I see you saying this but don't understand. Those people still died?

I actually thought the ' new reporting would make a handful of difference?

Until PHE get their arse in gear, any figures for deaths outside hospital are unreliable

Of course there will be some to add to the hospital deaths, but we don't know how many

@Piggywaspushed it's because of the way PHE are counting non hospital deaths. They have been counting anyone who has ever had covid no matter how long ago in the numbers, even if they died in a car crash. There was no reliable way of knowing in their method whether covid was the actual cause.

It has been proved they are over reporting. They just can get a handle on it.

All deaths matter. It's whether they are showing the accurate picture of covid

@Piggywaspushed thank you for the Zoe Hyde the epidemiologist tip.
Will follow her together with our Whitty & Valance experts.
Nothing compares to the hard facts from experts in their field

I agree. That said, I thought it was estimated that the difference might be about 10 people and that there hasn't been a single example of the car crash scenario.

Either way, we need to be able to trust their figures, obviously.

@BigChocFrenzy

The % positive tests is still v low though, well under the WHO 3% limit

Isn’t the picture very much a local one? Large swathes of the country have very few confirmed cases, while Oldham (covered in the news today) has a 5% test positivity rate.

I don't mean to imply the deaths don't matter, sorry. But the PHE number is wildly inaccurate.; see the attached graph and comment from RP131 on twitter -

PHE vs. ONS comparison based on today's ONS wk. 31 report and latest PHE all-settings date-of-death data. 7-day rolling average of difference between 2 lines is still at 36. I.e. the @PHE_uk number is 215% bigger than @ONS - that's 254 extra deaths a week.

not sure where else this is happening but on the twitter feed of Blackburn with Darwen council:

We are now encouraging everyone in the borough to get tested for coronavirus, you don’t need to have symptoms.

On the 1000 cases thing, surely that was about a rolling average?

The recent over-counting must be corrected asasp,
but of course is still far less than the earlier under-counting:

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Groupp*

https://c8930375-0dbb-4319-ae2f-025f70d4b441.filesusr.com/ugd/ab45f7ed709364eaf741e9ae1aed450de5b962.pdff

In this bulletin we note the recent news about the unreliability of daily COVID-19 death figures in England1,
and re-state our belief that the metric of excess deaths is the most reliable way of gauging the pandemic’s impact.

Hence, nothing has changed – it remains the case that over 60,000 have (very likely) died from COVID-19.

We have analysed the difference between ONS and PHE-reported deaths, tracing the growing difference over time.

That suggests nobody died from lack of treatment for other things during lockdown. I thought the ONS report was fairly clear in verifying how many excess they thought died of non-covid in the period. Both matter, but.It's useful to distinguish between them for many reasons.

@MRex

On the 1000 cases thing, surely that was about a rolling average?

If we keep going as we are, rolling average will be 1000 - at least - very shortly.

@Frazzled2207

not sure where else this is happening but on the twitter feed of Blackburn with Darwen council:

We are now encouraging everyone in the borough to get tested for coronavirus, you don’t need to have symptoms.

On the face of it that sounds a good idea. But would only show a snapshot of the time surely?

Obviously useful for asymptotic etc.