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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/08/2020 14:48

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

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Thread gallery
56
Piggywaspushed · 10/08/2020 17:15

I go neither skiing , nor to the pub, am married to a teacher, and have a child at school. Neither DH nor DS were ill when I was in late March, as I self isolated in a bedroom. I did, however, sit literally next to a 14 year old girl who took two days off school after returning from skiing and next to another girl with a persistent hacking cough who had just been to Italy. Hmmm....the other member of staff who was Ill had been on the school ski trip but I never went anywhere near him. Somewhere at the bottom of my illness is a school. No one is saying it's only the children who spread it. Schools haven't really had staffrooms for years by the way!

alreadytaken · 10/08/2020 17:26

This thread is about data. You can pick up an infection anywhere - talking to another parent, at the supermarket, anywhere. I doubt anyone can say they go only to school, never see another member of staff, dont talk to other parents and therefore must have been infected by a student. But it's clear that teachers want total reassurance - and there is not enough data to give a reliable answer.

Look instead at boys3 graph earlier that shows positive tests dropping in many areas, but only levelling off in higher incidence areas - both at the time you'd expect if mask wearing works.

Firefliess · 10/08/2020 17:26

The Telegraph is also running the story about track and trace being moved to local authorities Troubled test and trace system to be scaled back as local authorities told to take more control

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/10/troubled-test-trace-system-scaled-back-local-authorities-told/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AvwkDzJhMTVy

Good news I think.

Re schools - I think any analysis surely ought to compare to some form of counterfactual which isn't just assuming students otherwise stay at home and see no one. I can't keep my 17 year old in for five minutes currently as she's constantly socializing, albeit mostly outdoors. I reckon she'd be at lower risk at college with a bit of social distancing! Her college isn't planning full time return though - their plan is for blended learning on a week on week off basis. All enrichment is to be online only, no sport, drama, etc. A total of 6 2-hour lessons a week to cover 3 Alevels. It's a very much diminished offer. Whatever Boris likes to state about returning to fill time school, she won't be getting that. Though I presume it does mean they are at least planning for some actual online lessons.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 17:26

Interesting study on "wellbeing" in lockdown,
indicating the importance of govt financial support:

https://theconversation.com/wellbeing-levels-fell-during-the-pandemic-but-improved-under-lockdown-data-analysis-shows-143367

it’s clear that lockdown entailed particular hardship for womenn, often because of additional childcare and home schooling responsibilities not being shared equallyy.

But we also found positive effects for low socioeconomic status (SES) individuals, especially men.

We suspect that this reflects the income support made available to these individuals.
The following figure shows how life satisfaction rose among three low SES groups (skilled and unskilled manual labourers and the underemployed) during the lockdown according to the YouGov data.

Low SES men are one of the highest risk groups for completed suicide attempts.

The relatively good mental health outcomes for this group during lockdown could provide one explanation for the somewhat unexpected reduction in suicideses_ that has been seen in some countries during the pandemic.^

Search data also highlights a potential link between income support and suicide rates.
....
India and South Africa, two countries that implemented lockdowns with minimal social support mechanisms, are clear outliers, with sharply rising rates of suicidal ideation.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14
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cantkeepawayforever · 10/08/2020 17:34

Her college isn't planning full time return though - their plan is for blended learning on a week on week off basis. All enrichment is to be online only, no sport, drama, etc. A total of 6 2-hour lessons a week to cover 3 Alevels. It's a very much diminished offer. Whatever Boris likes to state about returning to fill time school, she won't be getting that. Though I presume it does mean they are at least planning for some actual online lessons.

The contrast between 6th forms in schools (which must open full time for all students in all years) and stand-alone sixth form, / FE colleges (which are allowed to offer blended learning for all) is a really interesting one, and it is not clear at the moment which will end up offeruing the best option for A-level students.

Particularly in a situation where schools / bubbles / areas fluctuate in and out of lockdown (described as 'the education hokey cokey' in more than one thread), I think that students in colleges will benefit hugely. However, in areas of low transmission, it may be that students do stay in schools full time, and this may well be advantageous.

Will all be very interesting come A-level time....

Piggywaspushed · 10/08/2020 17:36

I know that already and what you said wasn't data based which is why I reacted. The point us no one knows and yet people state zero transmission of children to adults as fact.

Piggywaspushed · 10/08/2020 17:37

That's interesting BCF. A lot is said about wellbeing but I am not sure it isn't nearly all anecdotal.

Piggywaspushed · 10/08/2020 17:40

But anyway, just to close the conversation and then I promise I won't bite again, I can confidently say my entire interactions are school based : I have no family, and no life!

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 17:57

It is very difficult, even with detailled track & trace, to be sure where any individual was infected,
except probably for some published studies of particular superspreader events

We can only examine risks for particular occupations and age groups

All countries show an absolutely tiny % of deaths among children, even smaller risk for the under-10s
increasing risk from middle age and rapidly accelerated risk from age 60

Teachers have not so far shown up statistically as having a higher risk than the population average,
either from pt schools, or from the limited number of countries so far with ft schools
Note that pt schools happened when many other workers were WFH or furloughed, i.e. at lowest risk.

The ONS did not find teachers to be at increased risk, as an occupation
and Germany had only 7 staff deaths from > 1 million employed in schools, childcare etc which I calculated before to be roughly average risk for their age group.

Age is absolutely the dominant risk factor
and all but the more serious health conditions are less of an additional risk than being up to 10 years older

In the UK, someone aged 45+ infected with COVID doubles their risk that year of dying from all causes.
Advice in many countries is that age 60+ should take extra care,
so a combination of 60+ with health conditions does indicate WFH should be considered if possible, especially for men.

The total of 35 COVID deaths for age 0-40 in Germany, a population of 83 million, plus a further 78 deaths for 41-50,
illustrates that (at least with a high quality health service and efficient track & trace to enable early health moitoring)
COVID is only a tiny death risk for the young & middle aged, even with health conditions

  • although it is admittedly too early to quantify longterm effects for survivors, it seems 5-10% of confirmed cases may have these.
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BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:02

imo, the consequences of not reopening ft schools are now so serious.
both for the education & future prospects of students,
as well as for the ability of many parents to pay essential bills,

that it could only be justified by a risk that is much higher than current data supports

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ancientgran · 10/08/2020 18:07

I feel that when people talk about risk and schools opening they seem to talk about kids who are primary age. I don't know about evidence but I can't see why strapping 16, 17 and 18 year olds wouldn't spread it. Over lockdown my 6 ft 16 year old GS has been a great support helping me with disabled husband, I don't think I will feel comfortable with that when he's back at school. Why do 11 year olds have to wear masks in shops and on buses?

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:08

Governments needs to protect / support the age 60+ group,
in particular those still working
and those in care homes who are very vulnerable

Part of this is measures to keep community infection levels down
so at least an efficient track & trace system

Other measures include full sick pay for care staff, ft contracts to reduce working at multiple locations, money for sufficient PPE stocks, more deep cleaning etc

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:15

"Why do 11 year olds have to wear masks in shops and on buses?"

There is little downside to this for a short journey, but it is much more demanding for 6 hours

Few people are saying that secondary age cannot spread at all, just the risk seems lower than for adults
Mask in secondary schools are indeed compulsory in some countries in at least corridors, sometimes classrooms too

imo this should depend on the regional infection rate and decisions should be made locally
Certainly masks should be allowed anywhere for staff & students who choose to wear them

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boys3 · 10/08/2020 18:21

Having a bit of a senior moment, and quite possibly a very senior moment in terms of today's reported UK case number.

Yesterday 1062 cases; and dashboard shows England 988; Scotland 48, Wales 26; N.Ireland 0. 988+48+26+0 = 1062

Today 816 cases, and dashboard shows England 699. This got me very excited as for the first time for a long time less than 90% of total and pretty much representative in actual % terms of England's pop vs UK total pop. but dashboard also shows Scotland 29, Wales 12 and N.Ireland 0. 699+29+12+0 = 740. The other 76 cases therefore sit........? Having download the full England file that reconfirms 699 for England as correct.

As I say a very senior moment going on.

ancientgran · 10/08/2020 18:23

I agree that teachers and pupils should have the choice to wear masks or vizors. Our schools seem very crowded, I'm not sure how that compares to other countries I suspect some will have smaller classes/bigger rooms and some will be the opposite. It might be interesting if there was a study comparing that but I suppose there are so many things to study it is hard to cover everything.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:26

< sits beside boys to scratch head >
I filtered etc too but I agree with your figures

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Bigoldwimp · 10/08/2020 18:35

I’d be interested knowing whether as many people proportionally are being admitted to hospital as before , or whether (rather hopefully) the virus sort of looses its sting after a while. But I guess we can’t see that due to the way testing has changed from being only testing positive cases already admitted in hospitals to wider testing today

PatriciaHolm · 10/08/2020 18:41

@boys3

Having a bit of a senior moment, and quite possibly a very senior moment in terms of today's reported UK case number.

Yesterday 1062 cases; and dashboard shows England 988; Scotland 48, Wales 26; N.Ireland 0. 988+48+26+0 = 1062

Today 816 cases, and dashboard shows England 699. This got me very excited as for the first time for a long time less than 90% of total and pretty much representative in actual % terms of England's pop vs UK total pop. but dashboard also shows Scotland 29, Wales 12 and N.Ireland 0. 699+29+12+0 = 740. The other 76 cases therefore sit........? Having download the full England file that reconfirms 699 for England as correct.

As I say a very senior moment going on.

They have messed up with P1 cases I think.

The total from here
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

for P2 cases for the UK is 740.

So I think, at present, England's data doesn't include the 76 P1 cases, whilst the overall total of 816 does.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:44

There is no firm evidence about "losing its sting"
but all countries who released lokdown have experienced a sharp drop in the age of infected people
Hence far more cases are mild and don't require hospitalisation

e.g. In Germany, case age dropped from a peak average of 52 to about 37 and hospitalisation rate dropped from peak 22 % to 10%,
which is about what we'd expect from age drop alone, without the virus becoming milder

Drop in deaths is age related too, but also because treatments have improved

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:45

Yes, I suspect the senior moment is on dashboard side, not us
(although after a week at 37C+ my brain may be melting)

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Pertella · 10/08/2020 18:47

Is it likely that the virus has already killed or hospitalised those that were most vulnerable anyway?

That sounds really tactless doesn't it 😖

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2020 18:53

Only a small % of them, imo

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sirfredfredgeorge · 10/08/2020 18:55

There is no firm evidence about "losing its sting"

I cannot remember where, but there was evidence that severity was related to initial viral loads during their infection - so people who were infected by low viral loads tended to have lighter diseases. So that would follow that early in the rise cases would fair better irrespective of age as they are likely to see lower viral loads - ie if only 1 person in the bar is shoving out virus rather than 10.

That also tallies with lots of community transmission happening in the UK but few hospitalisations in feb/march, but obviously we don't really know how many people were infected then (1.5% of blood donors infected by early march wasn't it?)

Pertella · 10/08/2020 18:57

OK, so to clarify, IYO there are still a large number of people who could be killed or hospitalised by covid that have managed to avoid getting it yet?

sirfredfredgeorge · 10/08/2020 18:59

Only a small % of them, imo

I agree in general, but I do wonder about the actual care homes, 50% of all care homes had some virus I believe? Which means that the places which would drive substantial hospital admissions and are harder to isolate from the community transmission may have a higher level of herd immunity than at risk people living at home.

Not that it changes the number of people at risk, but it may make deaths and hospitalisations rise slower as the number of transmissions to get to lots of high risk people is longer.

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