Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 14

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 14 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
[[https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi
rus-covid-19-information-for-the-public UK stats]] list of reports added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
Daily ECDC report UK & EEA
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data additional data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Talking about graphs and charts I post on the App can be like those dreams where you're in a meeting or a kid at school and you suddenly realise you're naked
I wish MN would sort out this problem with attachments

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy.

I agree it was most likely the bars, but specifically the nightclubs and music events. Same as Florida add the Carolinas, it seems that Covid loves noisy indoor events best of all.

Bars and clubs do seem to be drivers of infection. It seems a bit crazy that Spain has had rates go higher, when the good weather means that most of these activities can happen outdoors.

Sweden, the anomoly - they are undoubtedly out of step with others, and have had large numbers of deaths/million. The interesting thing is however, that the population supports the government and their decisions, and are economically in a much better position than the rest of Europe. Perhaps they are just blessed with a perfect population in terms of density, behaviour, age and health.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8607731/Why-Sweden-pilloried-world-refusing-lock-having-laugh.html

Sorry, sorry, sorry, it's the Daily Mail .

Covid loves noisy indoor events best of all. That would certainly chime with the evidence of airborne transmission being much more important. Shouting, mixing, all indoors with little or no airflow. I’ve also read one of the reasons meat factors are hotspots is the physical exertion, the shouting (as well as the fact that the workers all have to live together).

I think there is also a lot of political hype about Sweden’s economy. It has contracted less, but it still has contracted, and I’m not sure it is worth 5,000 deaths and thousands of illness often severe. Reuters predicts similar longer term economic contractions across the Nordic regions with Sweden not looking any different from others...

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-nordics-economy-poll/nordics-to-flirt-with-record-recessions-in-2020-bounce-back-in-2021-reuters-poll-idUKKCN24P102

@Baaaahhhhh

Sweden, the anomoly - they are undoubtedly out of step with others, and have had large numbers of deaths/million. The interesting thing is however, that the population supports the government and their decisions, and are economically in a much better position than the rest of Europe. Perhaps they are just blessed with a perfect population in terms of density, behaviour, age and health.

... "and are economically in a much better position than the rest of Europe"

No they don't seem to be.

Sweden's central bank predicts their % 2020 GDP fall will be about the same as their Scandi neighbours - and Germany, around 6% by EOY

Even without laws and lockdowns, consumers don't go out and spend anything like as normal

Plus of course, the voluntary SD - which is only possible with great trust in government & public health experts - has a considerable influence on consumer habits, as it does on infection spread

Comparisons to the UK can be misleading, because the UK has some of the worst figures for both deaths and economic damage
Better to compare to countries that got most things right, rather than wrong.

Sweden and Norway’s gross domestic product is likely to contract by 5.0% and 4.5% respectively in 2020, according to median predictions in the July 21-23 poll, the biggest drop since World War Two. Denmark’s economy is expected to shrink by 4.3%, its worst contraction since the financial crisis in 2009. Reuters

There is a great deal of pushing of the Swedish strategy atm, which didn't make their situation worse or better than their similar neighbours
and would have been disastrous for densely populated European countries

I'm surprised at the obsession to say everyone else was wrong,
including Tory papers saying that BJ and the current Tory government were wrong
and the Swedish goernment coalition of the Left & Greens had the only possible way.

In any case, without a Tardis to go back and undo everything, it is completely pointless,
unless people in the UK just want to give BJ a kicking in lieu of being able to do anything else

I'm far more interested in what we do next, rather than this obsessive attempt to rewrite history

Sweden, the anomoly - they are undoubtedly out of step with others, and have had large numbers of deaths/million.

Something is very strange about Sweden’s recent infection rates....from 1,000+ per day to 200-250 per day over the course of July. It seems a particularly sharp decline for a country with so few restrictions.

@icecream - I'm not sure the Spanish do do everything outdoors in the summer. It's very hot in Spain at this time of year - a lot of time spent indoors with Aircon on - just like the southern States which seems to have a similar problem.

Predictions of UK GDP by EOY 2020 range from a drop of 9.5% (BoE) to 11.5% (several other sources)

France & Spain currently predicted nearly as bad - and may worsen if Spain especially can't get the current rise in infections under control soon

I think one positive thing about the Swedish strategy has been the consistent approach to restrictions and messaging. They introduced one set of measures and have stuck with them. I think that is one of the reasons for the high level of trust in the Government from the Swedish population in general.

The perceived flip flopping from the Government on things like masks has damaged public perception of the approach in the U.K.

@Derbygerbil

Sweden, the anomoly - they are undoubtedly out of step with others, and have had large numbers of deaths/million.

Something is very strange about Sweden’s recent infection rates....from 1,000+ per day to 200-250 per day over the course of July. It seems a particularly sharp decline for a country with so few restrictions.

... If you look at its neighbours, Sweden's infections are still on the high side and their % positive, although < 3% is still much higher than the UK, Italy, Germany

Also, we shouldn't compare absolute numbers to e.g. the UK with 6 x the population

If you multiply Sweden's cases x 6, they don't look low even compared to the densely populated UK

@Sunshinegirl82

I think one positive thing about the Swedish strategy has been the consistent approach to restrictions and messaging. They introduced one set of measures and have stuck with them. I think that is one of the reasons for the high level of trust in the Government from the Swedish population in general.

The perceived flip flopping from the Government on things like masks has damaged public perception of the approach in the U.K.

.... Yes, the government has been open and honest, without dodgy eye tests etc for those in charge and the strategy was clear

However, the Swedish public from the start had high trust in government & piblic health experts, because of decades of pretty honest & principled govt behaviour by the main parties

This situation doesn't exist in many other European countries, certainly not the UK
Hence voluntary SD would have had far less takeup than in Sweden

Several countries had a sharp drop inJune, so Sweden's drop just looks delayed and quite plausible
It's still not down to what we see in its neighbours

Also, talk of Sweden having the “last laugh” in the DM article is ridiculous, and not just because it is not a laughing matter, but because it implies that it’s all over. Even if Stockholm has a degree of herd immunity, it has done so with deaths that would be equivalent to 100,000 if applied to the U.K., though the 20% antibody levels quoted are less than half of those identified in some other places, so where enough of the population has had it to suppress the R, it’s not enough.

I think case reductions can give a false sense of security as it remains the case that only a fraction of the population is behaving in a way that will spread infection in a sustained manner.... Whereas infection rates may have high amongst this group, those most at risk have generally been much more cautious... Any claim of “victory“ made too soon, with a general relaxation, will likely cause spread again to the more vulnerable parts of the population that, with the notable exception of care homes, have largely “stayed safe”, at least since lockdown.

I wasn't necessarily suggesting the Swedish approach would work in the U.K. (or more widely generally) just that I can see why the approach has created "buy in" in Sweden.

As well as a perceived lack of credibility in the U.K. approach I think there is also quite a lot of genuine confusion. Unless you are pretty motivated to keep up with the changes I can see how people are a bit lost now.

last laugh is a really distasteful comment.

UK gov: Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity
(DHS , ONS, Govt actuary & HO)

D2: Impacts of a lockdown-induced recession

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdff__
_
Short-term impacts

The short-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to be 4,500 fewer excess deaths (equivalent to 30,000 gained QALYs) occurring within a year of the lockdown;

these are expected to come from an estimated reduction in the number of fatalities due to a reduction in cardiovascular diseases, dementias and respiratory diseases.
.....
The short-term morbidity impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to equate to 17,000 gained QALYs;
they are expected to come from an estimated increase in mental health problems, counterbalanced by a reduction in unintentional injuries (mostly occupational injuries),
reduction in chronic respiratory diseases, and reduction in transport injuries.

Medium and long-term impacts

We estimate an increase of 18,000 excess deaths as a result of the medium-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession,
occurring 2-5 years following the lockdown,
equivalent to 157,000 lost QALYs;

the main impacts are expected to come from an estimated increase in the number of fatalities due to increased cardiovascular diseases.

We estimate the medium-term morbidity impacts of the lockdown-induced recession to equate to 438,000 lost QALYs;
the main impacts are expected to come from an estimated increase in musculoskeletal disorders and mental health problems.

We estimate the long-term mortality impact of the lockdown-induced recession
(more than 5 years in the future) using two different approaches.

In the first approach, we use the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) life tables to estimate the impacts on those who were aged 15-24 during the lockdown-induced recession.
We assume a -0.3 GDP-to-mortality elasticity. This estimates 15,000 excess deaths, equivalent to 294,000 lost QALYs;
this is from a slightly elevated all-cause mortality impact for younger people who would enter the labour market a few years before, during, and a within a few years after the recession.

For the other approach, we use the Index of Multiple Deprivation for England (IMD) and assume a - 1.0 GDP-to-IMD score elasticity per year
giving an estimate of 17,000 additional deaths per year for every year that GDP remains at a low level.

UK gov: Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity
(DHS , ONS, Govt actuary & HO)

Category A: Health impacts from contracting COVID-19

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf

We estimate that from the 32,000 COVID-19 deaths registered between 21st March and 1st May,
25,000 were “excess deaths” in that they would not have occurred otherwise within 1-year

Under the COVID-19 Static Scenario (CSS),
it is estimated there would be an additional 53,000 COVID-19 deaths to March 2021,
42,000 of which would be “excess deaths”.

In total this equates to 530,000 lost Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs)
and 700,000 Years of Life Lost (YLL) over the 12 month period (21st March 2020 to 19th March 2021).

For people who contract COVID-19 and survive,
there are likely to be morbidity impacts particularly amongst those hospitalised and needing critical care, including cognitive, physical and mental health impairments.

We estimate these equate to 40,000 lost QALYs within 1-year.
The long-term health impacts are unknown.

Hi, it was me that asked the original question about Sweden which has led to a few replies on here! I realise I was not at all clear enough about what I was asking. Obviously their strategy and the consequences of that have been widely discussed. What I was interested in though is more the fact that they’ve been consistent throughout, to my knowledge have kept pretty much the same policies etc and yet their cases and deaths are all on a very clear slope down. I was wondering what people’s views were in that is it some kind of natural end if they’ve not done anything more than they were at the start?

At this time of year, most Swedes go off to their remote holiday homes. This may explain some of the drop in cases.

All countries in Europe saw an abrupt downward slope after the 1st wave as summer came in

Sweden were several weeks longer than everyone else at high levels, which is part of what led to their high total deaths

Their new cases & deaths remained much higher than their similar neighbours and with a higher % positive tests

As the cases graph I posted indicated, it does not look like they are on a downward slope atm:

Sweden's cases look to be rising again, like most other countries in Europe

and Sweden had a much shorter "trough" than other countries