[quote Firefliess]**@already* - I think you're getting cause and effect back to front in interpreting @boys2's graph - the places she's showing on the blue line were only placed on the watch list quite recently (most of them at least) So the fact that rates are going up in these areas whilst other areas flatline or fall is the reason* they are on the watchlist, not the result of being in it.
What strikes me about your chart though @boys2 is that the watchlist and non-watchlist LAs were very much in sync during June - falling at the same rate. Then at the start of July something changed in some areas causing cases to rise and them to be put on the watchlist. Could be pubs, some workplaces, places of worship (all opened start of July) or a cultural failure to go on with social distancing. But whatever they are doing wrong recently in those places is new - they weren't doing it during June. [/quote]
@alreadytaken @Firefliess
I think my graph has some design flaws a harsher view might say several. Simplistically I was looking to see if I could get a clearer picture of the uplift in the seven day rolling average.
I started back in third week June to track the steady fall over into July and then compare with the uplift since. The current watch list LAs are simple to group, but I recognise potentially misleading, although I'd argue the bigger one are relevant throughout.
Have added the all England line might have been helpful to include that originally