No vaccine for 5 years? Facing up to how long term this may be...

[Lightbulblight]

Just read this article

www.scientificamerican.com/article/bad-news-about-the-pandemic-were-not-getting-back-to-normal-any-time-soon/

I am starting to face up to the fact that things may not be going back to normal for a very long time. Wondering what I need to reconsider in terms of work, education of my kids, the way I live...

Is anyone else thinking this way? I feel like I’ve been living in a bubble of denial thinking it will all be over in the next year

That article is a very interesting read.

I was particularly struck by a comments towards the end: "Next, we need to understand and evaluate where each of us has fallen into these biases, and to evaluate the pain we cause ourselves by doing so"

Especially as it comes after pointing out how unused so much of the public is to dealing with science - becoming anchored on what they were told first, and not truly understanding how the amassing of evidence easily leads to better advice

It’s a possibility, but that article adopts a deliberately doom-mongering approach. It doesn’t mention a range of scientific advances that will massively improve the situation, such as effective treatments administered early on, instant home test kits etc.

Also its timelines are off. It talks about months to manufacture 100million doses of a vaccine after it’s shown effective, whereas we know that the Oxford vaccine is already being mass produced as we speak, at a potential loss.

A complete return to normality may definitely be years away, but I think we will be seeing a semblance of it long before then.

I think I’ve just been clinging to the idea that a vaccine will come next year, and denying any evidence I’ve already seen to the contrary...

It feels especially pertinent with regard to schools, thinking of a sustainable way to get my kids through (potentially) the next 5 years. But also facing up to work limitations/losses, and how I’ll manage seeing my parents without putting them at risk...

What redolent said. It is a weird, doom-mongering, end of the world piece that misses quite a lot of quite important detail about the vaccines (some are in production) to make it all as scary as possible. No, we won’t back to normal for a while...but this feels like worst case scenario presented as likely click-bate.

Interesting read. I think we are all so desperate to believe that things will be back to normal by Christmas that we refute anything to the contrary as scaremongering.

My ds is raging against having to wear a mask as his argument is that the government said masks weren't necessary back at the start of this. I will show him this.

Yes, they've allowed for pre-approval manufacture in that.

The numbers of vaccines they need to make - 100 million - covers just under a third of the US population. We could do the entire British population hand have about 35million doses to spare.

The idea that a promising vaccine will definitely be safe and effective, and that it can meet an early deadline, is the sort of thing that this article is about. Because there is no such certainty.

(It doesn't address potential treatment breakthroughs, again something that could happen, but no way to predict when a breakthrough might come)

@Lightbulblight

I think I’ve just been clinging to the idea that a vaccine will come next year, and denying any evidence I’ve already seen to the contrary...

It feels especially pertinent with regard to schools, thinking of a sustainable way to get my kids through (potentially) the next 5 years. But also facing up to work limitations/losses, and how I’ll manage seeing my parents without putting them at risk...

Tbh I’m also clinging to that idea. I guess in part justified. The Oxford vaccine is based on old-school technology that has been used for decades and is undoubtedly safe. The only question is its efficacy and we will that find in the next month. If that proves disappointing then I’ll have to readjust my expectations.

I think I find that it actually helps to consider the more pessimistic versions, rather than dismissing them. I’ve been relying on kids back to school in September, vaccine available soon for vulnerable parents etc. Now I’m trying to think carefully about what I can do to prepare if these things don’t happen as quickly as I’d imagined - rather than setting myself up for a series of shocks and disappointments.

But we all have to find our own way, and maybe I’m submitting to gloominess too soon...

Or did I misread!

midgebabe there is now evidence that suggests kids might spread the virus. Therefore giving them a vaccine might help to stop that making school reopenings safer in the same way that kids are given flu spray now to stop the spread of that. Obviously a vaccine is still some way of though...

www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/07/31/new-evidence-suggests-young-children-spread-covid-19-more-efficiently-than-adults/#6f1f8ff319fd

I know people working on the Oxford vaccine, they are very optimistic (or were 2 weeks ago when I last saw them). There's also advances in treatment already, plus there's still herd immunity which is not a dirty word! Some people are pessimists, I suspect it was to contrast with an optimistic article for balance. I refuse to believe that we can't nail this, and despite the deaths, it's actually not that serious a disease compared to others in the past (I've had c19), just unfortunately it's deadly to a few.

there is now evidence that suggests kids might spread the virus

There has always been evidence that this was the case. But it has all too often been dismissed as scaremongering or pessimism. People want to be believe the one study reported with a sensationalist headline in the MSM that suggests that it might be very low.

The idea that, as a population, we are so unfamiliar with engaging with the development of science, and so tend to misrepresent it, and are very prone to confirmation bias, is close to stating the obvious.

And leads to things like dementor tropes.

60,000 excess deaths even with lockdown, and it's 'not that serious'?

I think I can see why articles such as this are needed and are not stating the obvious?

Regarding efficacy, several people I know high up in the nhs/ research told me that even with a low efficacy (eg 20%) it's worth the shot in the current crisis. One told me they're telling Gp practices to prepare to roll it out in November. Not being reported as clearly it means many wouldn't bother socially distancing.

We don't know how long it lasts but to get through the winter it's worth it. It may be that it ends up being something that you need a regular booster for.

The issue with children has always been they're mostly asymptomatic. So it's impossible to analyse their impact on spread.

Also, If exposure to coronaviruses gives some short term protection, both children and the adults that care for them are likely to have also had exposure to those viruses, and gained some sort of short term protection, again making transmission impossible to track.

However, of those locally to me who I know have had it, it was whole families who were infected. In one, the eldest boy (7) had a fever for 10 days. The baby (1.5) had nothing. The preschooler (4) had a brief illness. Both parents, both asthmatic had a brief illness. Others I know with asthma are still struggling 3 mo later. Another young woman in her 30s has had a lot of organ damage. A paramedic had it with no knowledge. Blanket assumptions cannot be made regarding impact on schools and the families and teachers connected to them.

Schools and transmissions are an issue not least that you may have a tracing parent in one, an lea away from their own children who are in two more settings.

I do think ive anchored but it's to what happened in Italy, to what the medics wrote to the world, to them having lots of 40yo in icu and turning away over 60 to die.
Also to the fact the gov were happy despite that info to go for herd immunity.
It is hard to understand how effective the new treatments are being.

I think people believing kids dont spread it has been a dangerous thing as i expect those people will be less concerned about dc going ppaces with 'a bit of a cough/temp' . Children always have an adult there so the spread was blamed on the adult. But summer camps show it's not just spread by adults.

I know people working on one of the vaccines (though not the Oxford one). There is high confidence it will be ready in some form by September, rolled out in the new year, with a billion doses available by end 2021.

They were not starting from scratch, but from pre-existing knowledge from SARS MERS and other basis for vaccines. That has increased the speed of development dramatically.

Add to that there are multiple big pharma cos all chasing this in parallel. I have faith in the vaccine.

What I am less sure about is the treatment and support for survivors with long term health impacts (damaged lungs, chronic fatigue etc. ) Much more difficult issues there.

Worth noting the Oxford one is 2 jabs a month apart.

Umm I think the guy in the article is guilty of the same issues as he identifies in others actually 😂!

It’s true that at the beginning of the outbreak we were told

• vaccine development takes years
• vaccines frequently fail.

So at this stage of the outbreak he is saying the same anchoring his opinion in what we were told right at the start, we have never developed a vaccine in less than four years.

In the meantime we have had

• more money than ever before
• an opportunity to to use vaccine technology we have never tried before
• the fastest ever move from stage one to stage three vaccine testing
• unprecedented international cooperation

And yet he is sticking with what we need in January and what we have known before (previous vaccines are live vaccines and the manufacturing process will take as long as he says but if the number one vaccine candidate in the us which is the Moderna vaccine and a brand new rna vaccine is successful that manufacturing and distribution timeline will look very different!)

It is very true we may not have a vaccine for five years or indeed ever, and if it helps to get through it then yes plan for the worst. But remember the actual truth is we don’t know what we are doing here on the whole is something we have never done before we have never had a working vaccine in humans against a coronavirus, we have used either the oxford or Moderna technology to develop a vaccine and we have never attempted to do it at this pace! Therefore the “lessons” on what we knew about vaccine development before are useful but may in hindsight not prove relevant as he said what we were told in January may not prove to be the correct answer when we can look at the whole thing in hindsight!

Unduly pessimistic

I still expect a vaccine to be produced and a vaccination program to be completed - in developed countries at least - by the the end of 2021

The Oxford team seem quietly confident their vaccine can be rolled out
There are many other teams around the world working on different vaccines, several in the final testing stages

This is a global crisis, so scientists around the work have been given the resources and are working flat out as never before

I’ve read that there will be a second wave starting next month. Herd immunity will be achieved by the end of 2021.

I've noticed a couple of articles from America trying to cast doubt on the Oxford vaccine. A touch of professional rivalry perhaps?
The Imperial college vaccine is also in human trials, I believe the goal is to have it available for early next year.
The WHO is currently tracking 140 covid-19 vaccine candidates. I think it's a reasonable bet that we're going to have one in the next year.

It was dated 3 weeks ago things change every day i am confident a vaccine even if it gives small protection will be here by end of the year