No vaccine for 5 years? Facing up to how long term this may be...

[Lightbulblight]

Just read this article

www.scientificamerican.com/article/bad-news-about-the-pandemic-were-not-getting-back-to-normal-any-time-soon/

I am starting to face up to the fact that things may not be going back to normal for a very long time. Wondering what I need to reconsider in terms of work, education of my kids, the way I live...

Is anyone else thinking this way? I feel like I’ve been living in a bubble of denial thinking it will all be over in the next year

60,000 excess deaths with lockdown and that's not serious enough?

It's a lot by modern standards, but we used to get more people dying of flu each year back in the 50s.

The PP has a point when she points out that COVID19 exists in an awkward "sweet spot." A disease that was more obviously lethal and which tended to kill younger people and esp kids would probably not have got very far---we would have simply shut down the flights from China as soon as the news got out.

@Reallybadidea

Even if a vaccine is approved soon it won't be enough to return to normal. If we're really lucky then it might be effective at preventing disease and transmission in 70% of people. If we push really hard then we might persuade 70% of people to get vaccinated. But this probably still won't be enough to achieve herd immunity. So likely ongoing issues with spread of the disease in this country. And that's without the massive issues of rolling out a mass vaccination programme to the whole of the world.

'Normality' is many years away IMHO. Sorry.

Sorry you are talking shit people are getting fed up now they won't do this for many years !!!

@Cornettoninja

Like a lot of new armchair experts I’ve been drawn to articles on vaccines lately. One widely used one (I want to say TB but haven’t got any links to back that up, it might have been polio) isn’t actually that effective, under 50%, but we don’t need it to be. Viruses and diseases become much less of a threat at a relatively low percentage of the population becoming immune and/or unable to transmit infection. The problem occurs when no one has any natural immunity but that lessens as the immune population creeps up.

Chicken pox still has the potential to rip through the country since we don’t vaccinate routinely for it but it doesn’t because we have enough people with antibodies alongside containment measures by isolating at home whilst still contagious and alerting people who we’ve come into contact with. Some people have had the vaccine for chicken pox but no where near the kind of percentages you would need to create herd immunity.

Personally I have to stay positive about the Oxford vaccination - it’s getting me through this. I know it’s unlikely to be a magic bullet or eliminate the threat completely but it will be potentially good enough to speed up an end to current restrictions and allow time for other vaccinations and treatments to be developed.

This !!

Someone have to be willing to take the vaccines on the trials - other than
people overseas. there are various levels 1 2 & 3 - by 3 its more about efficacy I suspect than side effects - although whether its safe for pregnant women is another factor.
Just assuming other will put their name forward - sometimes it becomes a moral imperative - don't you think?

@okiedokieme

I know people working on the Oxford vaccine, they are very optimistic (or were 2 weeks ago when I last saw them). There's also advances in treatment already, plus there's still herd immunity which is not a dirty word! Some people are pessimists, I suspect it was to contrast with an optimistic article for balance. I refuse to believe that we can't nail this, and despite the deaths, it's actually not that serious a disease compared to others in the past (I've had c19), just unfortunately it's deadly to a few.

I've heard similar.

We'll probably never get a full on vaccine that totally eradicates it (i.e. small pox). It's more a hope you get a vaccine in the short to medium term that is more like the flu vaccine. It doesn't guarantee you won't get the flu and you have to take it every year but it significantly reduces the risk. We don't shut down every winter for flu but without a vaccine it would get very serious in a bad flu season (it can do anyway).

People won't comply with restrictions at this level for years in my view.

A lot of people have stopped bothering but a majority are still being cautious and following guidelines etc. I think they will over winter as well because there'll be a lot of fear around going into winter.

Once the virus has been with us 12 months with the restrictions and 'the new normal' (i.e. next March as we get into spring/summer) this is when most will just give up with it. People won't accept writing off another summer. Millions couldn't even give up one summer without a foreign holiday in the middle of the first wave.

@annabel85

We'll probably never get a full on vaccine that totally eradicates it (i.e. small pox). It's more a hope you get a vaccine in the short to medium term that is more like the flu vaccine. It doesn't guarantee you won't get the flu and you have to take it every year but it significantly reduces the risk. We don't shut down every winter for flu but without a vaccine it would get very serious in a bad flu season (it can do anyway).

Totally agree.

It doesn’t need to be perfect or a silver bullet it just needs to be good enough. If enough people have enough immunity at any one time, or even if people who get it end up with it milder, that should hopefully be enough.