Should we treat covid like flu now and just get on with life?

[947EliseChalotte]

Is it time to accept covid as another flu and just get on with life and back to normality. The whole point of lockdown was to flatten the curve.

@MarshaBradyo it's a waste of time us debating how we'd do it though. What we need to be doing is demanding that the government does. I mean, you've even pretty much said you'd like them to. Well fine, so would I . So why argue the toss with me?

I know that in NZ with a tiny amount of cases it was so close to getting out of control but they did it. Another week later and it may not have been so possible.

If you’re going for elimination you have to do it early.

I sometimes CBA to post long ideas because they can get a bit walloped, sometimes I'm in the mood for that and sometimes not! I've read some bits about it, but I don't have to be the advocate for it.

I think zero covid is the only option that makes long term sense to me, but I'm going to keep reading and the possibility/impossibility is something that will have to be borne in mind.

I'm a pretty political person, so I am fairly clear about the nature of the UK system and the electorate. Some of the things I think are a good idea, I also accept will not achieve majority support in the UK, and zero vivid could very well be one of those imo.

Lineman because I think it’s too late unless someone can say how. No country has attempted it. I said yeh sure it’d be nice but so would lots of things that aren’t possible anymore.

@MarshaBradyo

Lineman because I think it’s too late unless someone can say how. No country has attempted it. I said yeh sure it’d be nice but so would lots of things that aren’t possible anymore.

It is not too late. It is one of those things even if you 'fail' you'll be much better off than if you never try I think.

We can't carry on like we are, and we can't let it run through the population.

But whilst a vaccine is 'just around the corner' it will be hard to get traction in England.

@eeeyoresmiles Yup, agree. It’s not lockdown killing the economy now, it’s people’s fears of the virus still being in circulation in quite high numbers.
Having a vision to work towards - zero Covid - would help us form policies that even if they don’t hit zero wound get us a lot of the way there in terms of safely opening schools, Hospitality, shops, culture & sport Etc.
Those photos of the NZ PM Jacinda enjoying a busy market, no masks, no SD, made me so envious & actually rather sad at what we have lost. Cycles of spikes & lockdowns are going to be very damaging.

If the R is under 1 then eventually it reduces right?, so they do seem to want this as a goal. Probably what Whitty means when he says we’re at the limit.

Not sure how long it will take and if it’s possible to open what we need to and keep it under. And whether the economy can be sustained to keep us all going at the same time.

Cycles of spikes & lockdowns are going to be very damaging

Yes this. We could be living like this for years.

The trouble is, I think zero covid is the route you take if you fear/expect there'll be no vaccine - but many people are just praying for a vaccine.

If one comes in 2021 that's ok, but if it is a few years, we'll be wishing we'd started on zero covid now.

Mac12 yes the comparison is hard but consider when they locked down on the curve. Very, very early. For us? That would have been Jan / Feb not sure

The problem with hovering close to 1 when you have thousand of new cases each day is you can never really move forwards. R is one thing, but raw number of cases in England are too high. So we are always quite close to a worrying spike.

So we didn't suppress it enough and it would be better if we did.

Someone has clearly decided the current cases per day are ok - because they're not trying to push that down, they are ok with it staying at this level.

I think Zero Covid is now a long distance pipe dream

How exactly @labyrinthloafer and @Linemanfort could it possibly be achieved? I mean we would all like them to be able to do so but there are lots of things I would like that just arent feasible or achieveable.

We aren't New Zealand or Iceland (Australia is having its own issues with it right now)

Keeping transmission low and the r number down and coping with it as best we can

theconversation.com/can-big-countries-realistically-eliminate-covid-19-without-a-vaccine-four-experts-discuss-142181

Is interesting it basically says to achieve it we would need:

The effort would mean accepting fewer freedoms in the medium term. Crucially, it would rely on trust in authority and willingness to comply with restrictions.

Sadly just isnt going to happen in the UK. At all. Neither of them

This is a global health threat that requires global leadership and coordinated action if we are to eliminate it.

So we would need Russia/US/Brazil etc in line with it as well otherwise you have the risk of going through all of the first one to find it all pointless!

For this pandemic
we have to start where we are

for the next pandemic there is the chance of decent decision making
BUT
we have to get through this one first

and the UKs elected government have been crass and deliberate failures

Labyrinth what would you close to get it lower? Because closing things impacts our economic reality, jobs lost, deep recession. It’s always going to be a balance at this stage

Quartz phew, was feeling like I’d stumbled onto a strange thread where you could say whatever was fanciable and get angry if people said doesn’t sound possible, how?

Crucially, it would rely on trust in authority and willingness to comply with restrictions. Sadly just isnt going to happen in the UK. At all.

I did say in my post above that I accept where the UK is as a country. But that doesn't mean it couldn't be done, and I think it's the only route that makes sense.

But it is sometimes hard to convince people that good things are possible, I think.

Crucially, it would rely on trust in authority and willingness to comply with restrictions. Sadly just isnt going to happen in the UK. At all.

I don’t think this is the main issue. We do comply.

Economic reality is the issue.

Isn't that what they are doing in the US? You could always move there if you are keen to try the approach you are suggesting Their deaths are rising considerably at the moment

@MarshaBradyo

Labyrinth what would you close to get it lower? Because closing things impacts our economic reality, jobs lost, deep recession. It’s always going to be a balance at this stage

We're going to lose a shed load of jobs anyway, sadly.

We have these choices that I see:

• Carry on like this long term
• Get it under better control (or total control)
• Loosen restrictions and let it run

The only one I feel makes sense is to get it under greater control.

If a vaccine or amazing treatment comes, it is a non-question anyway.

Economic reality is the issue the economic reality of either carrying on as we are or letting it run is no better, imo.

@labyrinthloafer
How would you bring it under control ?

@bumblingbovine49
many US states are doing really well - they have a decentralised system

I know but I’m going to ask which sectors would you keep shut? Because it gets more difficult when you say hospitality for example and look at the job losses and revenue lost in the form of taxes - which pay for health etc

And that number of unemployed starts bringing up new issues including deaths, homelessness, DV etc

I loathe this cycle thing as much as anyone and as you’ve probably guessed I care most about schools opening for all as much as possible (which means not just flinging everything open). But I can recognise that we’re on a tightrope between deep economic decline and an R over 1.

We haven’t seen the real impact yet either due to furlough and grants, which are unsustainable.

@MarshaBradyo true the article discuss it from how it would work as a science perspective in the first instance.

I guess once you decided it is feasible you then weigh up the economic side of it

@labyrinthloafer yes control is the way forward. Total elimination sadly just doesnt make sense

@MarshaBradyo Out of interest, of my three options

• Carry on like this long term
• Get it under better control (or total control)
• Loosen restrictions and let it run

Do you have a preference?

You can't pick 'vaccine' because that's a given, I'd bite your hand off for a vaccine.

Zero covid as an approach makes sense to me, @Quartz2208