What pct of the population do you think has died of COVID?

[Karenovirus]

I read some survey published today showed that people think 10pct of the population has died from COVID

https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcncresearchhcovid-19opinionntracker_wave-4.pdf

It's a small survey admittedly. And maybe they carried it out with people live under rocks and only watch the BBC. But if people think numbers like this are remotely accurate, no wonder they're scared!

But anyway, what pct of the population do YOU think has died?

It’s about 0.08% of the population that have died.

Remember that's with lockdown. Would have been many more without.

About 1%.

It's 0.07%. 45961/67886011

stargirl it's nothing like as high as 1%. That would have been nearly 700K deaths.

MaxNormal has it

We don’t know exactly but it’s a bit below 1 in 1,000

Thank god for lockdown then really

0.000085% of the worlds population has died of known covid. This is estimated to be around a quarter or a fifth of actual deaths, so 0.004%, or there abouts.

In the UK it is far higher. 0.007 % of the population is known to have died, and it is estimated that around half of all deaths have been identified, so to date, around 0.014 % of the UK population.

We are right at the beginning, though, there are likely to be 5-10X as many deaths in the future, so 0.15% of the UK population, is expected, without a second peak. Of course, no one actually knows what it going to happen in winter. We could be hit with a far higher longer peak than we experienced in the summer, which would increase that number hugely

@mosquitofeast

0.000085% of the worlds population has died of known covid. This is estimated to be around a quarter or a fifth of actual deaths, so 0.004%, or there abouts.

In the UK it is far higher. 0.007 % of the population is known to have died, and it is estimated that around half of all deaths have been identified, so to date, around 0.014 % of the UK population.

We are right at the beginning, though, there are likely to be 5-10X as many deaths in the future, so 0.15% of the UK population, is expected, without a second peak. Of course, no one actually knows what it going to happen in winter. We could be hit with a far higher longer peak than we experienced in the summer, which would increase that number hugely

sorry, zeros out by 1!

I think publicising daily covid deaths with no context was a real error of judgement. They should have been presented alongside the total number of people who had died that day. Then people would have seen what a tiny fraction of deaths were due to covid.

I'd guess 0.0002%

Roughly 10% of all deaths this year have been caused by covid, not 10% of the population dying. It's not a subtle mistake, but it's an easy mistake to make if you are not handy with large numbers.

And that's dying with Covid, not necessarily of Covid.

At the peak of the UK epidemic daily deaths were roughly double normal levels Blackberry, though not all of the excess was formally attributed to Covid 19. So it was a big number just not as big as some people assume. I’ve been seeing some people saying things like “there are far fewer old people left now” which is a ludicrous overstatement of the impact on the Uk population.

Kitty isn’t quite as wrong as the people saying 10%, but she’s not far off.

Ooh I cannot do percentages in my head but 60000 have died and there are 64 million in the U.K. so it’s less than one percent (it was only expected to be one percent of everyone got it so even without lockdown would never have got to ten percent!)

@BlackberrySky

I think publicising daily covid deaths with no context was a real error of judgement. They should have been presented alongside the total number of people who had died that day. Then people would have seen what a tiny fraction of deaths were due to covid.

The key figure is excess deaths in comparison to previous years.

What a strange question, what does it matter how many people think? The actual answer will depend on how you set the counting criteria and will certainly be the subject of on going analysis.

What would the point be of me saying I thiink it's 0.000000000000000000001% or 75%, I genuinely don't see where you're going with your question.

all-age case mortality rate seems to be about 0.5%. Something like 75% have it mildly and without long term issues.

@KittyMcV

It’s a myth that many people have deaths recorded as Covid are simply “with” it, rather than “of” it as shown by the following extract from the ONS website:

“ Between 1 March and 30 June 2020, there were 218,837 deaths that occurred in England and Wales and that were registered by 4 July 2020. Over a fifth of these deaths (23.0%) involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (50,335 deaths). The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Using this information, we determine an underlying cause of death. More information on this process can be found in our user guide. In the majority of cases (46,736 deaths, 92.8%) where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, it was found to be the underlying cause of death.

Our definition of COVID-19 includes some cases where the certifying doctor suspected the death involved COVID-19 but was not certain, for example, because no test was done. Of the 46,736 deaths with an underlying cause of COVID-19, 3,763 (8.1%) were classified as “suspected” COVID-19. Including mentions, “suspected” COVID-19 was recorded on 8.4% (4,251 deaths) of all deaths involving COVID-19.”

The figure posted by the Government each day is deaths from confirmed cases... This is arguably not the best figure as, firstly, it doesn’t include the many 1,000s who died with Covid symptoms before there was widespread testing, whilst, secondly, also including 1,000s who died “with” Covid but of another cause. I’d argue that the ONS figures I posted above are therefore more accurate. They are figures to the end of June, so numbers would have increased by 2,000 or so since then.

Depends if you're going for PHE deaths, ONS deaths, daily death stats etc, there's different figures. It's around 0.07% so far, but given that we don't all die in the same year (hopefully) that's a fairly big increase on normal deaths; already it's more than flu season and many months to go for the year.

Related question while I think of it - I don't really understand the approach of those countries who include only deaths from the last 24 hours / if it's in hospital / if the person paid for a covid test / if the person has no other conditions / various other strategies that suppress death info. People die, you can't bring them back, so it's surely better to track the info for knowledge purposes. I'm just not sure what those countries believe they achieve by saying "ah, it was 30k not 48k. Does anybody understand why it's done? (Disclaimer - I don't mean countries like India where they're trying to log stuff but often simply don't know about cause of death, more countries like Spain who know the figures don't match but plough on regardless.)

Happily the overall death rate at the moment is a lot lower than average - some say because people who were going to die, died two months earlier. We'll see.

The death rate, in the absence of a vaccine, is a function of protecting vulnerable people. How this has, and subsequently will be achieved, is down to education of society and Government interventions.