School re-opening under threat

[jomartin281271]

Headline in the London Evening Standard today that this new surge could threaten re-opening of schools. I'm not surprised. The government know that it's not safe to open schools under their current guidance. Cramming children, teachers and admin staff into those tiny spaces could cause a catastrophe. I feel sorry for teachers. Most of them are really committed to the job and their lives are being put at risk. Scary times.
www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-second-wave-schools-september-a4511516.html

Risk is a weird thing, a risk of 1% chance of death sounds low but it isn't - it's the risk if you take up base jumping which I think we'd agree is a risky activity.

Anyway, regardless of the risk of death of any one individual. I'd say the risk of chaos and local lockdowns encompassing most of the country by mid-October is significantly higher. I'd also say that opening schools with no social distancing or increased funding for hygiene is only going to make that problem much worse. The government says the new local lockdowns are due to households mixing and spreading covid around, multiply that by a few hundred and you have a secondary school...

@Triangularbubble

You sound nice.

You are criticising people for being professionals and battling through the funding cuts, verbal abuse and constant criticism to still turn up and do their jobs. While still putting on a smile and giving up their free time to run clubs, volunteer for key worker schools, deliver food parcels, run live lessons and generally worry about the kids.

Peer reviewed study in JAMA Paediatrics demonstrating children have the same viral load as adults. Presented here without comment so people can make up their own minds.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2768952

@Flagsfiend

Yy agree about risk, we need not to understand our risk of death and serious illness due to covid on its own perhaps but:
-My risk of death/illness if covid wasn't here
-My risk of death/illness if covid is here but we carry on with SD etc
-My risk of death/illness if covid is here with no measures to stop it

The thing my family are going to do this year that will most increase our risk of death/serious illness from covid, is send the kids to school. Whether it is a risk worth taking is a separate issue, but I can't see anything that my famy would voluntarily do that will raise risk more. I'm not even hiding away much!

I’m guessing that teaching isn’t usually an especially risky job
I didn’t sign up for a risky job. In fact I purposely ruled out risky jobs. So I’m very unhappy to have risk thrust upon me without my consent, and without being paid any “danger money”.

ClimbDad I posted that link yesterday and it actually says that young children are up to 100 times as infectious as adults.

@PineappleSquosh

I’m guessing that teaching isn’t usually an especially risky job I didn’t sign up for a risky job. In fact I purposely ruled out risky jobs. So I’m very unhappy to have risk thrust upon me without my consent, and without being paid any “danger money”.

ClimbDad I posted that link yesterday and it actually says that young children are up to 100 times as infectious as adults.

I do feel that if there was an acknowledgement of the risk it wouldn't be so bad. Then mitigation could be put in place.

The denial of the risk makes me feel like I'm going crazy.

@PineappleSquosh

I’m guessing that teaching isn’t usually an especially risky job I didn’t sign up for a risky job. In fact I purposely ruled out risky jobs. So I’m very unhappy to have risk thrust upon me without my consent, and without being paid any “danger money”.

ClimbDad I posted that link yesterday and it actually says that young children are up to 100 times as infectious as adults.

I would be exactly the same, but currently a SAHM. I am risk adverse - teaching fitted with that. I really don’t think it’ll go ahead how they said.

I honestly can’t believe the worry they’ve given all teachers just so they can pretend to the country that things are getting back to normal so that people go out and spend money over the summer.

It boils down to the economy which is why it’ll never happen - it’s set us back month financially. It’s literally bonkers.

@PineappleSquosh

I’m guessing that teaching isn’t usually an especially risky job I didn’t sign up for a risky job. In fact I purposely ruled out risky jobs. So I’m very unhappy to have risk thrust upon me without my consent, and without being paid any “danger money”.

ClimbDad I posted that link yesterday and it actually says that young children are up to 100 times as infectious as adults.

I know. But true science seems to upset some people on here. So I gave it a low key, positive spin to make it more palatable for the extremists.

@labyrinthloafer you really aren’t going crazy but they are showing no regard for peoples’ mental health.

They don’t value/understand what teachers can do with time to plan. They are just trying to keep everyone thinking it’s all fine and dandy.

You’re not crazy, you are being sensible. The risks are there, many probably yet to be understood. We should still be at a far more cautious stage in the handling of this pandemic.

Thanks @sunseekin our paths keep crossing on these school threads .

I feel like I'm having my common sense hoovered out of me!

I would love to believe it's all fine, I'm so tired. But in my heart I feel secondary schools reopening with no social distancing and mass contacts is wrong.

@labyrinthloafer

Thanks *@sunseekin* our paths keep crossing on these school threads .

I feel like I'm having my common sense hoovered out of me!

I would love to believe it's all fine, I'm so tired. But in my heart I feel secondary schools reopening with no social distancing and mass contacts is wrong.

It is wrong and I really can’t see it happening. I’m frustrated, teachers are so dedicated and clever and could have worked out something so much smarter with time to plan. They’ve had no time to fact find from families and work out who needs what support. September will be chaos.

I have already prepped mine that there's a strong possibility we won't send them straight back. I'm very lucky they are both ok at home, and also I sent the one who could back before summer as I kind of expected this madness to happen.

I do feel that if there was an acknowledgement of the risk it wouldn't be so bad. Then mitigation could be put in place.
The denial of the risk makes me feel like I'm going crazy.

@labyrinthloafer you're not going crazy. I've also been feeling the same. I'm not a teacher, but am finding this part of the pandemic really hard to deal with - a friend (not local) has lost a parent, another spent a short while in ICU, and while our family is being very careful, some friends seem to have gone pretty much 'back to normal'. Yesterday, I had an argument with a family member until they finally looked up and checked the facts - they'd thought the risk was 100x smaller than it was.

I'm worried sick about September, for the teachers and for vulnerable children and families too. Our school is putting in all the measures it can, but it's clearly going to be impossible to bubble properly (large secondary school). The government needs to be protecting teachers and school staff, and the wider population too. If they'd spent this time investing in more remote measures that would have helped, until there is more known about this and we're closer to vaccines and guaranteed treatment. There is a lot of support among parents for teaching staff.

@duffeldaisy

I hope teaching staff don't fell the 'get on with it' parents speak for all parents. The trouble is they are noisy.

@cantkeepawayforever

So Trust, what you are saying is that because you think the risk is tiny, I have to accept that?

No make your own assessment but perhaps consider the actual risk before bleating about how you will most certainly die.

@Enoughnowstop

I personally feel you're massively overestimating the chances of your impending death

Not every teacher is a white, 22 year old female with no underlying health conditions. Teachers must be broadly representative of the general adult population so a significant number have conditions such as diabetes or are over 50, overweight, of BAME origin...or a combination of those things. Moreover, teachers and school staff do not exist in a vacuum - we live with people, some of who are classed as vulnerable or who have been shielding. And whilst I accept death is unlikely, there is no denying it will happen to some school staff, just as it has happened to some medical staff. And - crucially - some school staff will be off work for weeks and months with Covid and it is precisely this that will cause school closures. Not forgetting that we too will have to sometimes isolate and/or be in the same position as everyone else when a school closes and there is no one to care for our children. The more kids in school at a given time, the more frequently and for longer periods we are going to be closed.

Of course theyre not but even a 90 year old overweight Asian man has a better chance of living than dying. I think we've forgotten this. Nobody is more likely to die of this than live through it.

@labyrinthloafer
Yes. While I'm really at the very cautious end of things, and have a tendency to anxiety anyway, even the most relaxed of my Mum friends are still concerned about the teachers - even if they don't think there's much of a risk, they still get that some of them feel worried. Our teachers are part of our community, they're friends and family, so people do care.

Like you say, I don't think in real life there are many 'stop whinging and get on with it' people out there. They're just loud on forums like this. But there does seem to be quite a lot of denial, which is possibly just how some people cope with things. And that's stressful if you're looking at the situation and some other people around you are saying there's nothing really happening/it's just a cold etc.

"Of course theyre not but even a 90 year old overweight Asian man has a better chance of living than dying. I think we've forgotten this. Nobody is more likely to die of this than live through it."

This shows how badly most people understand risk. If you were told you could have an operation to fix a non-lifethreatening problem and only 1 in 3 people die from the operation, are you saying you'd happily have it as most people survive?

A 1% risk of death may not sound high, but it is actually high, especially if things could be brought in to reduce the risk.

@labyrinthloafer I think that’s a good idea, forewarned is forearmed and all that, I’m trying to think of things that might help us around the home x

"Of course theyre not but even a 90 year old overweight Asian man has a better chance of living than dying. I think we've forgotten this. Nobody is more likely to die of this than live through it."

Risk doesn't work quite like that. While 85% of over 80s will survive, that doesn't mean that every person over the age of 80 has an 85% chance of survival. I know because an otherwise doing fine but shielding relative has been told to be extremely careful by their doctor, because their particular medical history and physical disabilities mean that they are especially vulnerable. If they manage to avoid it, though, they're otherwise stable and can expect to be fine for many years to come.

And you may have another 80 year old who has been very lucky health-wise, is super-fit and has a 99.9% chance of survival. It's all very individual within those broad percentages, so that's why it's important to be careful, to protect people.

I think if people want to not send their dc back that’s a good way to go. Not sure if the de-registering part applies.

That risk obviously increases significantly if hospitals start to be over stretched or gatekeepers on 111 are told to take less cautious responses to serious case callers to avoid hospital overwhelm.

That gatekeeping also means people are far more ill before having any interventions so bad outcomes are more common than with early treatment.

My point being 1% is not a fixed number.

There is a deliberate effort to make it seem like we’re idiots who want zero risk. In fact we’re just asking for reasonable mitigation of that risk for us, our students, their families and the wider community.

Schools have a large locus of effect and the ripples are huge.

Trust - pp have said many times, this is not about dying. So can you stop with this one single line, please?

If all high school kids go in for one week to make the government look good, and that increases R loads, not only there will be an increase in death but there will be a huge disruption to lots of services while people have to stay 10 days isolated evry time they have symptoms. That would come back and affect all of the people to say stop being scared of dying, and will have a huge impact on the economy.

It is all about thinking medium to long term, instead of just about today

Well said, Lua. Totally agree. It's a much wider issue and to try to confine it to one thing isn't helpful.

Trust, will you stop putting words in people’s mouths that they haven’t said, it’s either you being deeply unpleasant or completely thick.