Covid19 Is Here For Years to Come

[ClimbDad]

Today, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of Sage, the government advisory body, said the world would be living with Covid-19 for "very many, many years to come".

"Things will not be done by Christmas. This infection is not going away, it's now a human endemic infection.

"Even, actually, if we have a vaccine or very good treatments, humanity will still be living with this virus for very many, many years.... decades to come."

Prof Sir John Bell, of the University of Oxford, said he thought it was unlikely that Covid-19 would ever be eliminated despite the positive news announced on Monday that trials by his university had triggered an immune response - an important step in developing a vaccine.

"The reality is that this pathogen is here forever, it isn't going anywhere," he told MPs.

"Look at how much trouble they've had in eliminating, for example, polio, that eradication programme has been going on for 15 years and they're still not there.

"So this is going to come and go, and we're going to get winters where we get a lot of this virus back in action.“

If these highly respected scientists are right, how will your life change? Do you believe we can go back to normal while the virus is circulating?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142

I’m surprised at how unwilling some people are to consider we may need to adjust our behaviour for a while

Are you not aware that most of the entire world has already been adjusting their behaviour? Are you posting through a time warp from January?

[quote ClimbDad]@Jrobhatch29

Sharing a scientific paper and saying we need to know more is now classed as scaremongering? OK.

You seem to be deliberately missing the point. Leukopenia is common to severe viral infections. What is uncommon is to see it in people who aren’t exhibiting any symptoms. That is unusual and needs further research.

We know SARS-CoV-2 infects bone marrow. We know it disrupts stem cell production. Leukopenia in asymptomatic cases could be a sign of white blood cell dysfunction.

I’m surprised at how unwilling some people are to consider we may need to adjust our behaviour for a while until we have a better understanding and better therapies. But each to their own.[/quote]
A scientific paper that hasnt been through the rigour of peer review? Yeah i'm probably ok thanks.

And for the last time - we HAVE adjusted our behaviour

Dont worry Climbdad, I think we can all say safely that you and your pre-peer reviewed articles have warned us

ClimbDad if you were my friend or partner I'd be quite concerned about your wellbeing to be honest. You are taking a lot of time to post a lot of articles on here. Is there nothing else you could be using that time on which would be better for you?

People are largely not going about their business as normal yet. There is a lot of evidence demonstrating that from how many restaurants are open to numbers travelling on trains to people booking holidays. I appreciate you are scared and you want people to be careful - as do most people- but you do seem to have got this completely out of proportion. I am saying this as someone who once got a bog-standard virus and had years of serious issues with my health afterwards. Living your life in fear is no way to live. It is still the case that most people who get the virus will be absolutely ok and experience no lasting damage.

I know you are going to carry on with these posts though.

@ClimbDad what are you hoping to achieve with these posts? Why not join the other armchair experts on the numerous threads and argue out your stats and studies among yourselves?

If your only aim is to minimise risk of harm from Covid you will make different decisions than if your aim is to minimise risk of harm from all causes.

Lockdown, keeping children off school, damaging the economy, limiting access to treatment for non Covid illnesses etc, etc are not benign actions, they have costs associated with them.

It is therefore a balancing act. I think concern about Covid has become so all consuming for some that they will not accept any risk of harm from Covid at all but are willing to accept almost any level of risk of harm from other sources provided it is in the pursuit of avoiding harm from Covid!

I’m surprised at how unwilling some people are to consider we may need to adjust our behaviour for a while until we have a better understanding and better therapies. But each to their own.

What are you talking about? Virtually everyone has adjusted their behaviour:

lockdown for months
queuing for the supermarket
wearing masks in shops, on public transport and now hairdressers
no shaking hands or hugging to greet people outside of your immediate family
social distancing, everyone keeping further apart
shops, hairdressers, pubs, restaurants re-opening with new measure - tables much further apart, sitting outside wherever possible, staff wearing PPE and visors, leaving names and phone numbers

@Pianostrings

ClimbDad if you were my friend or partner I'd be quite concerned about your wellbeing to be honest. You are taking a lot of time to post a lot of articles on here. Is there nothing else you could be using that time on which would be better for you?

People are largely not going about their business as normal yet. There is a lot of evidence demonstrating that from how many restaurants are open to numbers travelling on trains to people booking holidays. I appreciate you are scared and you want people to be careful - as do most people- but you do seem to have got this completely out of proportion. I am saying this as someone who once got a bog-standard virus and had years of serious issues with my health afterwards. Living your life in fear is no way to live. It is still the case that most people who get the virus will be absolutely ok and experience no lasting damage.

I know you are going to carry on with these posts though.

He said on a thread yest he is part of a team of scientists working on a covid treatment. I wish he would get off mumsnet and crack on.

He said on a thread yest he is part of a team of scientists working on a covid treatment.

@Jrobhatch29 I properly laughed at that post!

He seems to me like some sort of anarchist hoping for the breakdown of society.

yeah I think it's a political motive too - lots of people using the current situation to try and destabilise elections and all that kind of business - some people do have a vested interest in keeping things negative for as long as possible - maybe he works for Zoom for example? :)

maybe he works for Zoom for example?

That would explain a lot

Listen to yourselves -

"an anarchist hoping for the breakdown of society"
"political motive"
"maybe he works for Zoom"

Or maybe I'm just someone who's studied coronaviruses more than most people. Ignore me for a moment, and consider Sir Patrick Vallance (120,000 deaths this winter), Jeremy Farrar (with us for decades), Sir John Bell (immunity might be temporary). These are respected scientists and they're being echoed by hundreds of public health experts, virologists and immunologists around the world.

You can have your fun discrediting me on MN, but it's harder to ignore the mounting number of experts saying we're facing profound social change and long-term health impact from this virus.

Anyway, you're right, I don't have time to waste on MN. Good luck with whatever life holds.

Bye for now Climbdad. Look forward to your next thread with new helpful links and projected data showing the devastation we have ahead of us. Second wave is coming, kids!

Or maybe I'm just someone who's studied coronaviruses more than most people.

This means “I spend a lot of time on r/coronavirus on Reddit”, doesn’t it?

This means “I spend a lot of time on r/coronavirus on Reddit”, doesn’t it?

Yup

What a wally. Still for some reason this has cheered me up.

“May I direct you to the work of u/BongDude18, who makes a compelling argument that large-scale public events will not be returning until 2057 at the ABSOLUTE earliest based on something he read on Twitter about reinfection...”

Good luck on your covid treatment. Just as an aside, you will have to get your work peer reviewed or people will think you are talking shit...

120,000 deaths this winter. Yes, right. If we all make sure to cough all over each other, not wash our hands ever, have a really bad flu year, not go out when we have a confirmed case of the virus etc. etc. etc.

That figure is utterly ridiculous and I'm embarrassed for whoever thought mentioning it would be a good way to scare the general public. It's very stupid too, when people won't believe experts if a far more serious situation crops up. Like antibiotic resistance.

@ClimbDad

Didn't the modelling commissioned by Patrick Vallance say that there could be as few as 1,200 deaths from Covid over the Winter? Depending on how low the R value can be maintained at? It was a model not a guaranteed outcome.

Sorry go out when we have a confirmed case of the virus. Facepalm.

Ignore me for a moment, and consider Sir Patrick Vallance (120,000 deaths this winter)

Gosh, for someone who claims to be a professional scientist, your grasp of modelling is shocking.

it's harder to ignore the mounting number of experts saying we're facing profound social change and long-term health impact from this virus

Your reading comprehension skills honestly aren't that great given the role you supposedly have.

You are still seeing a thread full of people going 'lalalala we don't believe you that the virus is serious.' That's inaccurate. I know several singers and actors. They are going to find any way possible to safely get back to work because ultimately, they are all passionate about their job. It's a vocation. Theatre, music, art - they are the soul of society. They are vitally important. If, months into this pandemic as we are, we had millions of dead bodies piling up around us, then you would have an argument I might listen to. As it is this is still a virus which kills very few people at a population level. You have to have a balance.