Covid19 Is Here For Years to Come

[ClimbDad]

Today, Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of Sage, the government advisory body, said the world would be living with Covid-19 for "very many, many years to come".

"Things will not be done by Christmas. This infection is not going away, it's now a human endemic infection.

"Even, actually, if we have a vaccine or very good treatments, humanity will still be living with this virus for very many, many years.... decades to come."

Prof Sir John Bell, of the University of Oxford, said he thought it was unlikely that Covid-19 would ever be eliminated despite the positive news announced on Monday that trials by his university had triggered an immune response - an important step in developing a vaccine.

"The reality is that this pathogen is here forever, it isn't going anywhere," he told MPs.

"Look at how much trouble they've had in eliminating, for example, polio, that eradication programme has been going on for 15 years and they're still not there.

"So this is going to come and go, and we're going to get winters where we get a lot of this virus back in action.“

If these highly respected scientists are right, how will your life change? Do you believe we can go back to normal while the virus is circulating?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142

Honestly believe if we didn’t have 24 hour news or social media there wouldn’t be all this hysteria, In fact I would be surprised if we would even have had a lockdown

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst, that's my approach!

Humans are humans, I see nothing unlikely in the full range of responses from the detached/analytical to the terrified.

The anxious types are scared by the gung ho types, and the gung ho types are scared by the anxious types. So we all have a nice big argument.

And the reason we're all arguing is no one actually knows, as we are looking forwards and projecting our views into the future, selecting the info that speaks most to ourselves and feeling cross other people don't see it the same way.

I haven't got a clue what will happen, neither has anyone else!

Of course we will go back to normal while the virus is still circulating! What an odd question.

When schools are back as normal, people will feel a lot calmer. And realise that if their kids are mixing with large bubbles, there's really no need for other restrictions.

The r number will go up and down depending on the season.

At some stage the government will realise everyone is wearing masks on their chins and think of an excuse to remove this rule

There will be a terror attack targeting people queuing outside shops. Plus people will get fed up queuing in the rain. So this will be scrapped.

The economy will be on its knees so quickly everywhere will be reopening as normal.

It will stop being reported (flu deaths never are)

Life will move on. Thank goodness!

@climbdad what do you think will happen?

When schools are back as normal, people will feel a lot calmer. And realise that if their kids are mixing with large bubbles, there's really no need for other restrictions.

This is what I mean. It's one person projecting their hopes.

I think it'll get worse when school opens as we'll be off for every cough, having tests, hearing of increased infections and little outbreaks. Plus we'll all be gloomy with the weather.

There's no knowing, and probably we are both right for a subset. We argue because we want our own forward view to be the widely accepted one, I guess.

@ClimbDad I bet your a barrel of laughs at parties. Of course it won't be 100% eradicated. Most people realize that. But with a vaccine and treatments, it will just fade out of most people's lives.

There is absolutely no way we can keep this up for much longer. No matter what happens with the virus as we return to normal. To think or hope otherwise is just not realistic.

The 1930s were dominated by people who didn't want to confront the German problem. In the end the problem became too big to ignore.

I believe that's what's happening here. People like me are saying we need to be cautious while we learn more about what this virus is, and how we can defeat it. I'm optimistic we can, but it's going to take time, maybe 2 to 3 years.

We can either alter our behaviour to minimise transmission (note the use of the word minimise not eliminate) or we can go back to normal and accept levels of sickness and death we haven't seen in western societies for more than 100 years. It's clear some people on here want to gamble by going back to normal, but I'd suggest caution.

Just one example. Here's a recently published paper showing leukopenia occurs more in asymptomatic under 18s than in symptomatic patients. That's a very odd finding and I believe we need to give scientists time to confirm this study and to understand why before thrusting our children back into crowded classrooms.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20074682v2

Poor decisions made now cannot be reversed. Sadly, two of my friends have learned that the hard way. One now has a heart condition as a consequence of Covid and the other has minor brain damage. Both wish they'd been more careful. But everyone has to make their own decisions, so do whatever works for you.

Imo the majority of people have an underlying assumption that there will be a successful vaccine and this is what underpins their optimism.
I think all bets are off right now, we need to see what happens over the winter.

@ClimbDad

The 1930s were dominated by people who didn't want to confront the German problem. In the end the problem became too big to ignore.

I believe that's what's happening here. People like me are saying we need to be cautious while we learn more about what this virus is, and how we can defeat it. I'm optimistic we can, but it's going to take time, maybe 2 to 3 years.

We can either alter our behaviour to minimise transmission (note the use of the word minimise not eliminate) or we can go back to normal and accept levels of sickness and death we haven't seen in western societies for more than 100 years. It's clear some people on here want to gamble by going back to normal, but I'd suggest caution.

Just one example. Here's a recently published paper showing leukopenia occurs more in asymptomatic under 18s than in symptomatic patients. That's a very odd finding and I believe we need to give scientists time to confirm this study and to understand why before thrusting our children back into crowded classrooms.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20074682v2

Poor decisions made now cannot be reversed. Sadly, two of my friends have learned that the hard way. One now has a heart condition as a consequence of Covid and the other has minor brain damage. Both wish they'd been more careful. But everyone has to make their own decisions, so do whatever works for you.

Leukopenia is common in viral infections and does not mean it is permanent. I was hospitalised with influenza A 5 years ago and my white blood cell count was very low

Imo the majority of people have an underlying assumption that there will be a successful vaccine and this is what underpins their optimism.

Or treatment approach. Where significant developments are being made also.

@climbdad that study is 25 patients??

Low lymphocytes seems incredibly common with covid and viruses in general

@Jrobhatch29

Leukopenia is indeed common to viral infections. What is very uncommon is to see it expressed more in asymptomatic rather than symptomatic infection. That is an unusual finding. Would suggest production dysfunction rather than depletion through fighting an infection. Needs more research.

@climbdad I would say all we learnt from Germany is that poverty and recession have far reaching consequences. And that's where we're heading thanks to lockdown...

[quote openplankitchen]@climbdad that study is 25 patients??

Low lymphocytes seems incredibly common with covid and viruses in general[/quote]
Yep incredibly small study and no follow up on the kids to check if their levels increased. Clearly we weren't afraid enough from the original post so scaremongering about kids has been brought out!

"The following conditions may cause leukopenia: Viral infections: Acute viral infections, such as colds and influenza may lead to temporary leukopenia. In the short term, a viral infection may disrupt the production of white blood cells in a person's bone marrow."

Yes life will go back to normal at some point. But I do think it's going to wipe out those who cant fight it off first. I do think we are heading to to 60-80% infected before we see a vaccine. I also think wearing a mask will be more of a cultural norm. It be business as normal, but not this year. Maybe next spring? But yes living alongside it maybe longer. That's just my opinion

We can either alter our behaviour to minimise transmission (note the use of the word minimise not eliminate) or we can go back to normal

We HAVE altered our behaviour. The entire country has. There was this whole lockdown thing, to start with. Maybe you noticed?

If it is indeed your aim just to persuade people to ‘be cautious’, though, perhaps consider dialling down the ‘everything has changed forever’ approach? Because people are prepared to change quite a lot of behaviour if they see it as a short-term effort until the virus is defeated, but if they start believing the doomy types saying “all of human life must change forever and we’ll never be rid of the virus”, they’re just going to think “fuck it then, I’m going back to normal.”

@ClimbDad There's nothing worse than an armchair/google expert

Btw I dont know if it's going to kill me - hight blood pressure and overweight but it is what it is. I'm living my life either way life is short. Tokyo short to hide away for years on end

Of course it will be around for a long time.
There will be necessary adaptations to the way we live and on an individual basis people will decide on their own levels of risk.

Yet more "research" posted by Climbdad that hasnt been peer reviewed.

Also - as others have said - we HAVE adapted our behaviour, but go any further than we are at the moment is a massive overreaction. This is nothing like 1930's germany and I think its hugely offensive to compare the two.

I feel really sorry for you - I suspect you are one of those people who rubbed their hands with glee at the start of this, thinking they were going to live through the zombie apocalypse and it'd feel exciting somehow to 'survive' it and all the associated drama. The reality is that on the whole, this virus doesnt kill people and it's all turned out to be rather mundane.

So you can keep coming on here and posting your dementory hysterical threads if it makes you feel better - but rest assured that we will keep batting your delusions away.

@Jrobhatch29

Sharing a scientific paper and saying we need to know more is now classed as scaremongering? OK.

You seem to be deliberately missing the point. Leukopenia is common to severe viral infections. What is uncommon is to see it in people who aren’t exhibiting any symptoms. That is unusual and needs further research.

We know SARS-CoV-2 infects bone marrow. We know it disrupts stem cell production. Leukopenia in asymptomatic cases could be a sign of white blood cell dysfunction.

I’m surprised at how unwilling some people are to consider we may need to adjust our behaviour for a while until we have a better understanding and better therapies. But each to their own.

[quote ClimbDad]@Jrobhatch29

Sharing a scientific paper and saying we need to know more is now classed as scaremongering? OK.

You seem to be deliberately missing the point. Leukopenia is common to severe viral infections. What is uncommon is to see it in people who aren’t exhibiting any symptoms. That is unusual and needs further research.

We know SARS-CoV-2 infects bone marrow. We know it disrupts stem cell production. Leukopenia in asymptomatic cases could be a sign of white blood cell dysfunction.

I’m surprised at how unwilling some people are to consider we may need to adjust our behaviour for a while until we have a better understanding and better therapies. But each to their own.[/quote]
No, you've posted a link to a study about kids which has nothing to do with your original post because you think it would be worrying to the target audience on here i.e. Mums!

@Juststopswimming

Yet more "research" posted by Climbdad that hasnt been peer reviewed.

Also - as others have said - we HAVE adapted our behaviour, but go any further than we are at the moment is a massive overreaction. This is nothing like 1930's germany and I think its hugely offensive to compare the two.

I feel really sorry for you - I suspect you are one of those people who rubbed their hands with glee at the start of this, thinking they were going to live through the zombie apocalypse and it'd feel exciting somehow to 'survive' it and all the associated drama. The reality is that on the whole, this virus doesnt kill people and it's all turned out to be rather mundane.

So you can keep coming on here and posting your dementory hysterical threads if it makes you feel better - but rest assured that we will keep batting your delusions away.

I’ve included evidence and research from high quality academic institutions in every post I’ve made. As hominem attacks won’t change reality. Carry on as you wish, but if my concerns prove valid please don’t start asking why no one warned you.