I dont understand....

[PineappleUpsideDownCake]

I have friends in Melbourne.

How come they are locking down when we are opening up and our figures are higher than theirs? It doesn't make sense.

What will we do going forwards? Lock down schools etc likè melbourne? But at wjat numbers... if at the numbers were opening up at they lovk down at...

Its school holidays in Melbourne at the moment but they are planning for children to go back next week, despite the "lockdown". They've done what we've done in Leicester.

I get that. But they've done it for really low numbers, lower than we're opening up for. If they had our current numbers they'd be locking down. Thats what I dont really get.

The Melbourne infections were higher than Leicester. You're comparing one city with a whole country, because Australia doesn't have any cases elsewhere right now. Outbreaks will be locked down more here, we only didn't get it before because we were all already locked down. Did you notice that UK cases have fallen significantly in recent weeks?

I know ours have fallen, and Im out and about more. Im feeling on about our relative risk at the koment.

Australia is huge, so of course there's differences. There's infographics about "hotspots to avoid" which have say 6 active cases...

I don't know what's to get. Many other countries have locked down on far smaller numbers than us, in order to get the virus under control and minimise deaths. Johnson et al did not do that.

I am obviously not super knowledgable about statistics. Just aware they're closing down when areas have a few cases in order to keep it under control.

Is it a dofferent policy. Like in the uk plan A was to keep it under control, before it then spread. Will they be able to do that?

Will we eventually in Britain get to a point
where we shut down areas for a handful of cases?

@UltimateWednesday

Its school holidays in Melbourne at the moment but they are planning for children to go back next week, despite the "lockdown". They've done what we've done in Leicester.

No they're not planning on kids returning next week, they've extended school holidays here for another week. Years 10-12 for VCE will go back as regional Victoria isn't locking down and results would be unfair.

And we will likely return to remote learning again for the other years.

We're locking down because we don't want to end up like the UK/US/Italy etc.

We've a chance to squash corona in Australia totally and we need to do what we can.

Sam I dont get why we're opening up at numbers other areas are shutting down for. Is it because they are able to keep it under control before spreading and the horse already bolted for us?

And wondering if longer term we'll gwt to a point where say a few cases in my town means our town shuts down?

Reef thats what I thought. Friends had talked about a return to home learning etc.

Long term will that look like years of the 2 week quarantine for Australia and localised lockdowns (like whack a mole?)

Will we ever get there in the Uk?

Victoria is running at a confirmed tested infection rate (and rising) of around 27 per 100,000 per week.

The UK is running at about 11, and declining.

But all these towns in the UK are way higher than 27 in 100k? (I might be reading this wrong.)

This is just the first page of the list.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

But all these towns in the UK are way higher than 27 in 100k? (I might be reading this wrong.)

This is just the first page of the list.

That's cumulative for the entire outbreak, not now!

We do have a few areas above that individually, but they are on their way down, not up.

The outbreaks in Victoria also seem concentrated in about 3 suburbs and Melbourne, but they are separated suburbs so I guess it's simpler to lock down the state than try hive them off.

Ah that would make sense! The page says its updated daily but cumulative rather than nownwould make sense....

I cant find current accurate area rates?

If we look at NZ, if we did it right like them, then it's possible to go back to 'normal' at some point. Not being allowed to leave your country isn't normal I know, but hopefully that will come also.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

I cant find current accurate area rates?

They don't seem to be published on a day to day basis on in the format of "cases per 100,000" - cases are on the Gov site though

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

and people on Twitter are calculating it. There are swings on a daily basis though so you need to look over a few days. For example; this is @rp131 's graph of all areas 7 day rolling average of cases per 100,000 per day.

The state of Victoria isn't locked down, just metro Melbourne.

My parents live 40 minutes away, in regional Vic and no change for them.

They collected DC yesterday for a few days and now they have to bring them back today.

Wow thanks. So most areas are less than 5 cases in 100k!?!?
That's amazing. We really are doing well?

@ReefTeeth

The state of Victoria isn't locked down, just metro Melbourne.

My parents live 40 minutes away, in regional Vic and no change for them.

They collected DC yesterday for a few days and now they have to bring them back today.

Yes, my mistake, I did know that but for some reason made an error! sorry for confusion.

So as someone ex shielding, im highly unlikely to actually encounter anyone with it, at 5 in 100000?

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

Wow thanks. So most areas are less than 5 cases in 100k!?!? That's amazing. We really are doing well?

That's per day remember, and only confirmed tested cases so real cases are higher (ONS suggest about 3-4x) but yes, overall right now, it seems all heading in the right direction.

My friend in Melbourne is anticipating virtual learning for 6 weeks, which is what was making me think ahead a bit as to whether that might be a likely thing to happen again here once the kids are back in September.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

So as someone ex shielding, im highly unlikely to actually encounter anyone with it, at 5 in 100000?

That's new infections per day remember.

Current estimates for actual prevalence in the community is going to be something nearer 1/2200 people.

Thanks Patricia for helping ne udnerstand that. It seems a lot safer to be out and abour than I had thought (we still aren't going to enclosed indoor spaces.)

If you click "change location" on cases then you can drill down to your local area here: coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases.
It's a new feature, I used to get the stats elsewhere but they are released here so this is always up to date.