Logic behind second wave prediction

[BumbleWumble]

What is the actual logic behind the prediction that there will be a second wave?

I know it's based on what happened with the Spanish Flu but wasn't that influenced by soldiers returning from. WW1?

Why would this virus just take a break so to speak before returning with a vengeance? As opposed to simply carrying on infecting people consistently whereever it can.

Part of the problem is we don’t know how many people have had it because the tests aren’t very good, so many people are asymptomatic, it looks like people had it earlier in the year (I have a GP friend who saw someone who had it in January in retrospect).

@FizzFan

They are *@EnlightenedOwl* it’s quite worrying actually how many people are looking forward to more death and misery. They’ll be gutted if it doesn’t happen.

That's a sickening thing to say. You, EnlightenedOwl and Nihiloxica are nihilistic ghouls. Gross.

@Nihiloxia I agree with everything you say. Comfortably well off people praying for a second wave, very safe in their work from home bubble. It's an escape from real life and in a lot of cases perfect ammunition to the government they despise so much. It just angers me that they expect others to work in supermarkets for them, deliver their post, empty their bins... the list goes on. They are ok in their castles though, just let the oiks go out to serve them.

It was found that part of the problem in care homes was agency staff, not only because they work in multiple settings, but also because they don’t have good sick pay arrangements, which makes them likely to go to work when they are ill.

Another way to express that, is that care homes contributed to the problem by trying to minimise their costs by using staff who work in multiple settings and are not entitled to sick pay so likely to work ....

The first suggests it's the responsibility of the actual staff, who don't control the conditions under which they work rather than the care homes who set the terms of employment.

Sure, the people could not accept those conditions but they may not have many options. If you asked people would they prefer a job where they get sickness pay, who would say no thank you?

[quote onedayinthefuture]@Nihiloxia I agree with everything you say. Comfortably well off people praying for a second wave, very safe in their work from home bubble. It's an escape from real life and in a lot of cases perfect ammunition to the government they despise so much. It just angers me that they expect others to work in supermarkets for them, deliver their post, empty their bins... the list goes on. They are ok in their castles though, just let the oiks go out to serve them.[/quote]
Think you're right

If you asked people would they prefer a job where they get sickness pay, who would say no thank you?

Every person who goes self employed is making that decision.

I'm not sure healthy people give sick pay a lot of thought.

I come across a lot of people in my work who realise far too late that they have left themselves vulnerable by making these kinds of choices.

Of course, that too is structural. Your point is well made.

It's often that you get higher pay for work that doesn't come with any of the benefits of being an employee.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

A simple model I guess but one to show you that we never got rid of the virus and only contained it because we were in lockdown- less people were out and about to transmit it and the idea that most people in the Uk have not had the virus only means it is a matter of time before the do.

What we don't want is to stress the NHS and care homes.
Unless we have a treatment or vaccine, this virus may well stay and spread

finallyhere

You seem to assume I don’t realise that the problem is with the system rather than individuals, based simply on the structure of my paragraph or choice of words.

Perhaps we ought to word the same ideas several times over just to be clear, and to make others aware that we have considered all angles.

It’s quite clear that the fault there lies with poor conditions of employment, which ought to be outlawed.

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group: Is COVID-19 Seasonal?

Possible - not certain - winter upsurge, but we now have targeted measures like masks, contact tracing for new outbreaks, local lockdowns and better treatments

Most unlikely imo that the UK as a whole will be shutting down restaurants etc over the lucrative Christmas season

https://henrytapper.com/2020/07/09/is-covid-19-seasonal/

The study found that the most affected cities were located within a narrow geographic band (broadly 30°N to 50°N)
and that they had similar mean temperatures (between 5°C and 11°C).

This study suggested that, based on climatic conditions in March and April,
community spread was likely to affect areas north of the existing areas at risk.
In particular, Eastern and Central Europe, the UK, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States were areas mentioned as being at risk during March and April

In addition, recent clusters of reported cases of COVID-19 in meat packing facilities in Germany and the United States are also indicative that
temperature and humidity are likely to be factors in the spread of COVID-19
– the environment in these facilities is cold and humid; with people working very close together.
.....
The physiology behind relative humidity and infection is not fully understood or proven,
but it is hypothesised that we may be less able to clear our airways of trapped pathogens at lower relative humidity,
whilst there may be more aerosolised virus at higher humidity, and hence more exposure opportunity.
......
The human immune system also appears to experience seasonality, with higher vulnerability to infection in winter months.
It has been suggested that this is either due to vitamin D or seasonality of melatonin production.
.....
For Northern hemisphere countries, seasonality is likely to mean that
infections will remain at a relatively low level over the summer months,
despite the easing of social distancing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

However, if it does not prove possible to keep the number of infections to a very low level,
we would expect to see a second wave of infection in the winter months

"It’s quite clear that the fault there lies with poor conditions of employment, which ought to be outlawed"

Yes, a system of making so many sick workers - usually lowpaid - suffer financially as well as physically has always been unfair and cruel
but this pandemic has illustrated that it can also be very harmful to others

@Qasd

Agree for now but how long can we keep all these measures in place?

Agree for now but how long can we keep all these measures in place?

How long do you want to keep transmission chains broken for?

Because unless broken by a vaccine, you're back to the approach of some of you will die,.

I think that because we flattened the first peak, people have wrongly assumed that this disease is less of a threat. It was contained only because of breaking of transmission chains and it reappears as they are reestablished

Enjoy the warm, sunny summer. All bets are off for the cool, damp winner

@Bumblewumble I agree FWIW. I don't think it's remotely acceptable to view human lives as collateral damage, but sadly some seem to think this is OK.

What is the actual logic behind the prediction that there will be a second wave?

Biology

I honestly have no idea at all whether we are coming out of this or not. I knew with absolute certainty by mid-February that it was heading our way and I have the same degree of certainty that we locked down far, far too late. But now I find the realities of our situation so hard to grasp and that, in itself, is leading to some mild anxiety.

Having said that, I have to say that the mutterings coming from government of late, coupled with outbreaks in other parts of the world, suggest that those in charge think it is far from over. I'm not a doom merchant, and I resent the implication that some have made on here that those who believe there may be a second wave are somehow rejoicing in the misery of it all. Why on earth would you think that? Disagree by all means, but attacking others in this way says much more about you than it does about them, in my view.

BigChocFrenzy I find your posts very useful and I am grateful to you for your efforts in educating us all. Do you have any thoughts on what's happening in Texas, Arizona and the other hot, dry places in the USA? Obviously, they made wrong decisions in opening before they should have, but why is the weather not helping to prevent the spread? And if it is spreading so rapidly there in that heat, what on earth does it mean for us as we head towards autumn/winter?

Professor Callum Semple, professor of Outbreak Medicine and member of the government's own SAGE group said on Sky a few days ago that a second wave in Autumn/Winter is certain.
Those of us not equally qualified in outbreak medicine should probably listen to those that are. Obviously does not apply if you are also a professor of similar discipline/speciality.

What is the main driving factor behind the purported second wave, is it human behaviour or is it a property inherent to the virus?

@crosseyedMary

What is the main driving factor behind the purported second wave, is it human behaviour or is it a property inherent to the virus?

We've artificially reduced the first wave by having lockdown by breaking transmission. As lockdown is eased transmission will increase. It's really just a continuation of the so called first wave but there may be a seasonal effect as well, generally we have more cold and flus in the winter.

The famous second wave of Spanish Flu was caused by the virus mutating and becoming more deadly. Other viruses have seasonal waves.

We've artificially reduced the first wave by having lockdown by breaking transmission. As lockdown is eased transmission will increase. It's really just a continuation of the so called first wave

Yes and when people start crying out as they always do on threads like this it’s ignoring this basic science.

The big unknown however is how many asymptomatic cases and how high proportion to break transmission chains.

Also SD pre-lockdown caused an early peak. These are the factors that may slow it down.

I know the government has said that they don't want people penalised for doing the right thing but if you are an agency worker or have a low paid job you will lose out if you self isolate as you not get sick pay at all or even ssp.

Wasn't there some speculation that people in low paid work having to go to work contributed to the surge in Leicester Albeit it does sound there are worse employment practices going on there as well.

The government can pay people furlough for 3 to 6 months up to a level of what 2500.

Surely they can set something up for agency workers / people whose employers only give them ssp if they are told to quarantine by contact tracers or test positive. Australia paid people locked down in those apartment blocks under forced quarantine didn't they?

[quote UnmentionedElephantDildo]Sweden I will agree there has been a lot of social distancing even without lockdown, so that may have limited spread

Sweden had one of the worst per capita death rates in the world. Not an example to emulate!

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-highest-deaths-per-capita-europe-bars-restaurants-a9526221.html[/quote]
No it hasn't. That's just terrible analysis of the data.
Try this link instead.

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/nordiccomparisonn_4jul.html

As lockdown is eased transmission will increase

This isn't necessarily the case and you only have to look across the channel to see this. Some European countries experienced falling transmission after lockdown ended. But it only takes one spark to relight the fire - eg if you have a test and trace failure, and community transmission begins again in one or more places.

Second wave of Spanish flu was caused by the virus mutating and becoming more deadly
thanks for explaining Count
but is this fact or speculation?
what if covid-19 becomes more or less deadly?

I thought that it was becoming less deadly and fewer people needed ICU admission with it now.

Or is it that we have better treatment protocols and people do not progress to the degree of seriousness which necessitates ICU treatment?