Logic behind second wave prediction

[BumbleWumble]

What is the actual logic behind the prediction that there will be a second wave?

I know it's based on what happened with the Spanish Flu but wasn't that influenced by soldiers returning from. WW1?

Why would this virus just take a break so to speak before returning with a vengeance? As opposed to simply carrying on infecting people consistently whereever it can.

@FizzFan
not here to educate, but to spread stupidity.

bluntly, many of the most frail people have already died in the first wave

Not really - 2.5 million survived behind their shields.

There are many millions more on the vulnerable (as opposed to exceptionally vulnerable) list.

And those people are not all living with terminal diagnoses, and are not frail (though they may be on potent medication to keep them fit and well)

Problem is, it seems likely most people don’t develop lasting immunity.

Seems like most people do not develop lasting iGg antibodies but the question on immunity (via T cells / B cells) is still out.

I have read an interesting pre-print / non peered reviewed study mentioned on one of the threads here that suggested that people who have recovered from SARS have now got immunity to COVID even though their iGg antibodies are long gone.

Will they be able to develop a test to show if you have T-cell immunity?

What does all this mean for demonstrating the effectiveness of a future vaccine?

I think it would be prohibitively expensive and labour intensive to develop a mass test for T-cell immunity. It’s much more complicated than IgG testing.

@ labrinthloafer "This is not really based on anything though, just a hope"

Not based on NOTHING. Based on observation of death rates and actions taken by different countries at different times.

Sweden I will agree there has been a lot of social distancing even without lockdown, so that may have limited spread. But what about Wuhan? And Bergamo? Sewage samples show virus was there in each city for months prior to lockdown. And death rates peaked and fell too soon post lockdown to be a result OF lockdown.

Most people have an immune system which to some degree or another will fight this off. There was a study yesterday that showed even 80pct of people in care homes are asymptomatic.

Why are people so keen to believe this is a killer deadly plague that is going to wipe out humanity? There is NO data to support that. Just models. Models are not data.

@ labrinthloafer "This is not really based on anything though, just a hope"

Not based on NOTHING. Based on observation of death rates and actions taken by different countries at different times.

Sweden I will agree there has been a lot of social distancing even without lockdown, so that may have limited spread. But what about Wuhan? And Bergamo? Sewage samples show virus was there in each city for months prior to lockdown. And death rates peaked and fell too soon post lockdown to be a result OF lockdown.

Most people have an immune system which to some degree or another will fight this off. There was a study yesterday that showed even 80pct of people in care homes are asymptomatic.

Why are people so keen to believe this is a killer deadly plague that is going to wipe out humanity? There is NO data to support that. Just models. Models are not data.

@peonypower

None of the models have suggested it will wipe out humanity.

I don’t think any of the scientists or modellers are talking about it wiping out humanity, more like 1% if left unchecked (which is still an awful lot of people, to say nothing of those left with long-term symptoms and organ damage).

It’s not “stupid” to say that previous pandemics all came to an end. Go boil your heid as they say here, @TheSunIsStillShining

Unless you know something no one else in the world doesn’t, why would you think this won’t come to an end the same as EVERY OTHER PANDEMIC in human history?

Pandemic is a modern term. We usually use it for flu and the pandemics last for 2 years. But for those pandemics that don't die out we just have to live with them as they become endemic. In the west we have treatments or vaccines for the main killers and are not used to living with the threat of death from an infectious agent. The biggest killing infectious diseases in the world are T.B (1.2M deaths a year), HIV (0.8M deaths a year), malaria (0.5M deaths a year) and our old favourite flu (0.5M deaths a year normally, increasing to 1-2M in a pandemic year or 50M for Spanish Flu). The Black Death killed 50M in the 14th century but there were seasonal waves of bubonic plague throughout history, but now we can treat it with antibiotics. Still get outbreaks regularly.

If we don't develop long term neutralizing immunity (either from natural exposure or from an effective vaccine) then Covid-19 will become endemic, we'll develop some effective treatments and we'll have an annual vaccination programme and we'll have a normal life back.

Sweden I will agree there has been a lot of social distancing even without lockdown, so that may have limited spread

Sweden had one of the worst per capita death rates in the world. Not an example to emulate!

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-highest-deaths-per-capita-europe-bars-restaurants-a9526221.html

Alternatively:

IF

I happen to have a health condition and have just had to stay home for three months because I've been told I had a high chance of dying if I don't.

AND

My government, media and fellow countrymen spent that time minimising the importance of the death of every person who happened to be unlucky enough to have a condition like me.

THEN

I might be interested in discussing a possible second wave and what reasonable steps we can take to prevent it so that I never again have to 'enjoy' three months of house arrest whilst simultaneously working from home and trying to home educate my children.

Constantly predicting second waves and ramping up the drama and anxiety gives me the highest chance of continuing to live in this overblown drama I am enjoying.

Nihiloxica, what is the logic behind posts like this? Do you truly enjoy typing out spite? I've seen nothing but anti-COVID and anti-lockdown posts from you - nothing positive at all. You are negative and divisive.

Pandemic second waves are a known phenomenon. You can deny it all you want for whatever reason you have, but it is likely it will occur. It is simply the scale that is the question. So, piss off with your anti-science and anti-common sense bullshit.

And yes, I enjoyed that, because I'm tired of twats like her derailing conversations.

It's because people are starting to mingle again.

I am a bit concerned after reading this about Israel.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-britain-beware-israel-living-the-consequences-of-trying-to-return-to-normal-12020444?fbclid=IwAR3CKJ5qdJzoQS_fRwz9X9ryDpV8BjBZqYdZGFTqv5f2UgAJq6W8xU2W7Do

Overall numbers are still low but their infection curve has returned to where it was pre-lockdown, although numbers there were always lower than here.

I understand that @CountFosco. It’s been already widely stated that Covid will probably become endemic like flu. But the point is all outbreaks haven’t gone on forever and normal life returned between times. The OP and others also seem to think there’s something uniquely bad about CV. I’m glad I’m around now rather than when smallpox was endemic as that was much worse and yet people lived with ithe threat until a vaccine without the human race social distancing forever or dying out.

@BumbleWumble

What is the actual logic behind the prediction that there will be a second wave?

I know it's based on what happened with the Spanish Flu but wasn't that influenced by soldiers returning from. WW1?

Why would this virus just take a break so to speak before returning with a vengeance? As opposed to simply carrying on infecting people consistently whereever it can.

Quite bizarre how people are feasting on this, almost I think looking forward to it

They are @EnlightenedOwl it’s quite worrying actually how many people are looking forward to more death and misery. They’ll be gutted if it doesn’t happen.

If 45,000 people have died, and half of those are care home residents, it stands to reason that better procedures in care homes will help avert a similar pattern.

It was found that part of the problem in care homes was agency staff, not only because they work in multiple settings, but also because they don’t have good sick pay arrangements, which makes them likely to go to work when they are ill.

I’m not sure who the last posters mean directly on this thread but you can answer a question thinking about what is scientifically most likely without emotion.

The virus has attributes and rate of infection which are mostly constant (until mutates.

Personally I want dc back at school, each lifting of restriction feels like a lightening of suppression, I’m definitely not preferring lockdown or god forbid the thought of another one (better not) but I can divorce that from op’s question on science behind virus.

@FizzFan

They are *@EnlightenedOwl* it’s quite worrying actually how many people are looking forward to more death and misery. They’ll be gutted if it doesn’t happen.

They actually will