Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@Jrobhatch29 thanks for that info from ihu, i usually follow what is happening there but have not recently and i cant find that study or video so could could you link it. The doctor is fairly polemic in france but i will admit to being a bit of a fan ( and if i am unfortunate enough to need hospital with covid my dh is under strict instruction to make sure it is there!)

The dashboard has 40 deaths reported today so not just the hospital ones (13). Don't know why it's reported here but not on the website but it's there. Cases do seem to be plateauing. Whether this is a result of a real plateau or just finding more cases with targeted testing I don't know.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

If you have a cat/dog are you more likely to be immune due to cross reaction with the cat/dog coronavirus? Like smallpox/cowpox?

[quote Littlebelina]The dashboard has 40 deaths reported today so not just the hospital ones (13). Don't know why it's reported here but not on the website but it's there. Cases do seem to be plateauing. Whether this is a result of a real plateau or just finding more cases with targeted testing I don't know.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
Number of Pillar 2 tests processed is steadily up - 7 days average today is 72k (England) up from 57k a week ago. Cases by day of specimen running at 543 (England 7 day average to the 13th July, other days will go up) from 548 a week ago. So cases plateauing but it does seem that testing is up, so nothing at present to worry about (especially combined with steady NHS 111 triage data and running average of hospital admissions continuing down.

It would appear that the dashboard is created by PHE, whilst the site saying "deaths na" (www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public) is under the DHSC.

Hancock would appear to have asked PHE to stop reporting, and the DHSC have stopped publishing the data, but someone at the PHE seems to have ignored him ;-)

Either that or someone just forgot to switch off the data feed to the dashboard....

BBC says they are still publishing the data whilst they do their enquiry but have stopped promoting them (on twitter, etc) I guess that's a reasonable compromise between being open about things but not promoting data you know to be dodgy

@Choux As far as I'm aware there haven't been any changes to the criteria for testing for some weeks now (except for more routine testing of care home staff). I've definitely not heard of them reducing the access to tests.

I’ve not posted before but I’ve been lurking for a while. I’m really confused by the different pillars. What does this mean?

“ Due to data not being made available, it’s likely that pillar 2 numbers for the 18 July are over-reported. The figures will be revised once the necessary data has been made available. This affects the ‘tests made available”

Does that mean over reporting of positive tests?

The Torygraph says this re the PHE numbers:

"The UK has recorded 40 new deaths in the last 24 hours and confirmed 827 new infections through Covid-19 testing.

The latest figures were published on the government's coronavirus dashboard despite concerns from Health Secretary Matt Hancock about the nature of the data provided by Public Health England.

Officials said the Department for Health and Social Care will no longer link to the dashboard on social media posts or update the figures on the department's own coronavirus webpage while it conducts a review.

PHE confirmed that it may be recording deaths from coronavirus even if people have died months after a positive test. Other UK nations only include those who died within 28 days of testing positive.

But PHE said it will continue to make the figures available and update the dashboard."

@JudithGrimesHat

I’ve not posted before but I’ve been lurking for a while. I’m really confused by the different pillars. What does this mean?

“ Due to data not being made available, it’s likely that pillar 2 numbers for the 18 July are over-reported. The figures will be revised once the necessary data has been made available. This affects the ‘tests made available”

Does that mean over reporting of positive tests?

It says that every day - I think it's to do with not having good numbers on a daily basis of the numbers of tests sent out by commercial partners to those at home and through commercial testing. There is normally an adjustment of a few hundred every day.

@ClarasZoo

If you have a cat/dog are you more likely to be immune due to cross reaction with the cat/dog coronavirus? Like smallpox/cowpox?

Could be the next research study? I saw a study on the correlation between sauerkraut in the diet and Covid, ........

@whatsnext2 Yes. I remember way back in march/April there where reports of things like fermented foods and natural yoghurt being helpful. All to do with gut bacteria.

I don’t understand the pillar testing thing either - can anyone explain it in very very simple terms?

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

I don’t understand the pillar testing thing either - can anyone explain it in very very simple terms?

There are 4 "pillars" - 1 - for current infection, conducted in hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health workers 2- for current infection, conducted in the wider community. 3- antibody testing for past infection 4 - for surveillance studies.

Most of the cases now are coming from Pillar 2 - cases in the community as a whole.

I would be interested in does the age of ace receptors vary by age/sex/ethnicity. Or height etc

Did scotland start giving out vit d but England did nothing?

Thanks @patriciaholm

so nothing at present to worry about

now that local health teams are starting to get localised and more timely data, plus the powers to take locally proportionate measures to tackle any surges I think this is a largely reasonable assessment. I'm not convinced it quite yet has a blanket application across the entire country.

Case Numbers - England at least have plateau'd for the last week or so at the overall level. There is a more mixed picture beneath this.

Of the cases added today 796 were in England, with 686 relating to a specimen date range of 13th to 16th July, and clearly a bit of a data cleanse going on as 57 further net additions between 3rd Feb and 30th June (as compared to a net addition of 9 for that date range in last Saturday's data file).

Taking that additional 686:

23 UTLAs added zero cases

36 UTLAs added just 1 case each; and a further 49 between 2 and 4 cases. That covers over 100 of the 149 UTLAs.

At the other end 19 UTLAs added 371 cases, so over 50% of the total for those four days; with the caveat that these are absolute case numbers :

Leicester - 40 cases
Blackburn - 31 cases
Kent - 28 cases
Bradford - 25 cases
Rochdale - 24 cases
Leicestershire - 22 cases
Northamptonshire - 22 cases
Luton - 20 cases
Sandwell - 20 cases
Birmingham - 19 cases
Lancashire - 19 cases
Manchester - 15 cases
Essex - 14 cases
Kirklees - 14 cases
Sheffield - 14 cases
Cumbria - 12 cases
Hertfordshire - 11 cases
Staffordshire - 11 cases
Rotherham - 10 cases

reflects that size of population should be remembered. For example Brum over 1 million residents, Blackburn & Darwen around 150,000. Kent and Essex both also over 1 million residents. Absolute case numbers can therefore be misleading.

Yes, we need the cases / 100,000 population

Thank you Patricia - very helpful

Interesting comparison of Covid against flu. Basically similar to pandemic (as opposed to endemic) flu apart from age distribution.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1284513419454971905.html

This is rolling average of cases per 100k population of the top 7 areas, courtesy of @rp131 on Twitter. Blackburn's now just higher than Leicester, but far lower than Leicester's peak.

Hi everyone, I follow the gov data and note new cases increased this week. However they don’t say how many tests as they once did on the daily update.Do you know?

@lilgreen

Hi everyone, I follow the gov data and note new cases increased this week. However they don’t say how many tests as they once did on the daily update.Do you know?

The number of tests is on the dashboard -

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

Can I just point out that if you book a test online you don't have to tell anyone what symptoms you have!

Ah thanks. My link just shows cases, deaths and the relative graphs.