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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 06/07/2020 21:08

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
69
wintertravel1980 · 17/07/2020 11:38

If daily deaths were steady state-ing at say 30 a day, rather than swinging from 11-150, perception of the current situation might be a bit different.

Fully agree with that. People pay too much attention to daily numbers and when non hospital deaths stop making sense and remain at elevated levels (especially in comparison to other European countries or even Scotland), it causes irrational fears and anxiety.

The overstatement is indeed recent but it might be meaningful since most of PHE non hospital deaths still take place in care homes. An average care home resident has got a lower life expectancy than an average 80-90--year old living in the community so there will be more cases of people dying now who might have had COVID in March-April and who have fully recovered.

ShootsFruitsAndLeaves · 17/07/2020 12:54

I haven't been paying attention to the PHE figures for months.

The ONS figures show 501 deaths to week 26 (w/e 26 June) + 8 days (561 at + 15 days), which fell to 381 to week 27 (w/e 3 July) + 8 days

I'm not really sure how you'd cross-reference those two sets of data as there's a steady decline and ONS 'occurrences' are by date of death, while PHE figures were by date of report, which probably differs were only ever useful at the height of the pandemic to try and work out the point of inflection, and obsessing about them now is completely pointless when the ONS figures are 'timely enough' when the deaths are low enough for covid deaths (as distinct from infections, which we should be concerned about on a local and national level) no longer to be a major concern

Anyway the sensible number is 'excess deaths', which we don't have very accurate numbers for until all deaths are in, but we probably aren't doing too badly. Obsessing about PHE numbers which didn't even have a date of death was pointless.

ShootsFruitsAndLeaves · 17/07/2020 13:43

Article here about the outright fraud and lies which Indonesia is just one among many countries in committing to reduce its numbers

en.tempo.co/read/1363234/playing-with-data

According to the health ministry, as of July 3, there were 60,695 coronavirus positive cases with total deaths at 3,036. This is the number that is announced every day by Disease Control and Prevention Director-General Achmad Yurianto, who is also the government's spokesman for Covid-19.

The government has never openly admitted that the Covid-19 task force has different data. Based on the data by this institution, as of the same day, July 3, the number of positive patients was 62,050, with total deaths at 13,885. This total means that the death toll in Indonesia is the highest in Southeast Asia.

[note, as of July 17 the total is now up from 3036 to 3957, which is quite alarming]

I guess the number of deaths is actually much higher than either number, because the Indonesian healthcare is totally dysfunctional:

  • the national health system reimburses private hospitals for procedures performed by people paying monthly premiums, but whereas the government doesn't pay for nonsense patent drugs which enrich hospitals and doctors with fat commissions and foreign holidays, the private hospital will directly rip off private patients as far as they can and culturally people won't challenge the doctors on why they are using overpriced medicines that aren't clinically indicated.
  • the government has commandeered certain hospitals for covid, which is nice in theory, but....
  • the national health system (BPJS) doesn't cover covid, it's instead reimbursed directly from the central government, so the hospital has to reclaim the money separately and...
  • private hospitals won't give you a covid test at all. They demand you pay for it. Until recently they were charging around £22 for an antibody test, which is a shit test, but the government has cut this to £10.
  • national health patients trying to get into a private hospital with any illness will be routinely told to get an antibody test before they will be treated, even though they have national health coverage
  • if that test is positive then they will be sent off to another hospital where covid is treated directly and the first hospital will try to demand cash money to recover all their expenses
  • now the problem is that there are at least three antibodies, igA, igG and igM. We have NO antibodies before symptoms emerge (but maybe still infectious, which is why the antibody test is shit). After symptoms emerge igM antibodies are produced, and then as we recover igG antibodies. In theory igM antibodies should be gone within a month of infection, while igG antibodies may be detectable for years.
  • So the general indication is if igM is positive then that's a recent/current infection, while if igM is negative and igG is positive then that's a PAST infection, and the patient is not infectious.
  • Of course a patient who is igG+, igM- might still be ill. But not with covid! People got ill before we had covid.
  • So anyway, on the basis of igG+ with no igM result given the patient is sent off to the covid-19 hospital (jail). THey can't see anyone, or leave, and who knows if they are fed properly, etc. There they are given a proper RT-PCR test at public expense. But that takes probably a couple of weeks to come back.....

So given that people who run hospitals are generally smarter than the government and know how to extract their pound of flesh, it's no surprise that they are taking advantage of the situation to avoid treating sick people (for anything) with the excuse of covid....

So you have people worrying about going to hospital because they might be 'extraordinarily rendered' to the covid-19 hospital, and then members of their family quarantined and unable to work (because of course it's hard to earn a living due to covid-19).

And you have a recipe for mass unrecorded infections, unrecorded deaths, and mass spread of covid-19.

Some lunatics are imagining that Western tourists might be going to Bali in September.

Australia is charging returning residents A$3000 for compulsory quarantine and it is to be hoped that more Western countries follow suit so that people understand that if you go off to somewhere that is unwilling or incapable of addressing covid-19, then you need to pay the full cost of your lunatic selfishness. This would include, for example, people going on cruises in the future. Fine, go off to Bali on holiday. But don't expect repatriation flights at public expense, be compulsorily quarantined when you come back, etc.

And of course we should NOT trust the statistics of developing countries at anything like face value.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/07/2020 13:44

"the sensible number is 'excess deaths', which we don't have very accurate numbers for until all deaths are in"

I suppose there would be some delayed certificates / reports where autopsy etc is required,
but these would be a small % of total deaths

SHoots Do you have a ballpark figure of how many would typically be added to total deaths for a week within a following period of say 2 months ?

OP posts:
sunseekin · 17/07/2020 13:45

Sorry if someone has asked this - is there an infographic for Thursday 16th July please? Thanks! Great threadSmile

BigChocFrenzy · 17/07/2020 13:52

"so that people understand that if you go off to somewhere that is unwilling or incapable of addressing covid-19, then you need to pay the full cost of your lunatic selfishness.
This would include, for example, people going on cruises in the future."

Absolutely

Anyone who goes on risky holidays in irresponsible ignorance / arrogance,
should pay the full financial cost

OP posts:
NathanNathan · 17/07/2020 13:57

Just wondering if someone can give me an understanding of how things are generally going? I don't really trust the news to analyse and report correctly anymore...

Have we seen notable rises in cases or deaths?

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 14:07

@NathanNathan

I posted this yesterday, hope it helps -

Cases per day of specimen - running at a fairly flat 7 day average of high 500s all of June, tbh. However 7 day average of tests processed in June per day has been increasing, so a flat cases average is nothing to worry about (more testing = more cases!)

Admissions - running average is steadily down at England level, as is the number of people in hospital.

Deaths - running average for day of death steadily down

No evidence of any significant issues from beaches/BLM/etc etc etc

NeurotrashWarrior · 17/07/2020 14:09

Apologies if this has been linked, but I like the new ons map so far...

phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

sunseekin · 17/07/2020 14:14

As in great useful, went to the Thursday infographic link and last updated on the 9th so I’m confused!

Frazzled2207 · 17/07/2020 14:21

@NeurotrashWarrior
Yes i was about to post this link - very useful! is it pillar 1 and 2 as far as know. Suggests zero cases in my area for several weeks which is very reassuring,

Frazzled2207 · 17/07/2020 14:25

oh no it doesn't! it seems to suggest most of the uk have had 3-9 cases in the last week. That can't be true. There must be some areas with zero. There is no 'colour' for under 3 though. weird.
It does show very clearly where the hotspots are though,

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 14:32

@sunseekin

As in great useful, went to the Thursday infographic link and last updated on the 9th so I’m confused!
Not yet, doesn't seem to have arrived yet.

TBH I'm not expecting it to say anything hugely interesting. The latest ONS Infection Survey pilot is out now and basically says "it's all levelled off", largely because sample sizes are so low, they have had to move to modeling rather than basing estimates on sample.

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 14:34

@Frazzled2207

oh no it doesn't! it seems to suggest most of the uk have had 3-9 cases in the last week. That can't be true. There must be some areas with zero. There is no 'colour' for under 3 though. weird. It does show very clearly where the hotspots are though,
Under 3 means the area is white, as the data is suppressed at that level (they don't identify locations for under 3 infections)
lurker101 · 17/07/2020 14:55

@NeurotrashWarrior great map - this is both pillar 1 and 2 tests isn’t it?

NeurotrashWarrior · 17/07/2020 15:01

I'm honestly not sure!

BigChocFrenzy · 17/07/2020 15:02

Very encouraging news about the Oxford vaccine and a good detailled explanation of what is happening

I hadn't realised Gilbert's team had the massive time advantage of having nearly finished developed a MERS vaccine

It is the clear front-runner

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner

OP posts:
NathanNathan · 17/07/2020 15:33

Thanks @PatriciaHolm appreciated!

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 15:35

[quote lurker101]@NeurotrashWarrior great map - this is both pillar 1 and 2 tests isn’t it?[/quote]
yes, it is.

EmMac7 · 17/07/2020 15:41

@BigChocFrenzy

"so that people understand that if you go off to somewhere that is unwilling or incapable of addressing covid-19, then you need to pay the full cost of your lunatic selfishness. This would include, for example, people going on cruises in the future."

Absolutely

Anyone who goes on risky holidays in irresponsible ignorance / arrogance,
should pay the full financial cost

Except that almost all of the people caught in Australia’s $3000 quarantine are citizens returning from living overseas.

I live in the U.K. and am settled here for the moment. I can’t go home to see my terminally ill mother because of quarantine and the cost of getting one of the very few flights (the Australian government has imposed a 50 person limit on each plane, as well as an overall limit on how many people can enter in a week — the result is flights are $20K+).

No one is going on frivolous holidays from Australia at the moment.

Sunshinegirl82 · 17/07/2020 15:42

I have been following the Oxford vaccine from the start and in light of their work on MERS and "disease X" it's not surprising they are pushing ahead. I think cautious optimism is appropriate.

BruceAndNosh · 17/07/2020 15:57

I've missed a few pages.
Has the change in reporting data (ie not directly to CDC) in the USA been discussed? apparently a lot of previously public data has been removed.
I'm worried about this, not only does it smack of possible political interfering in data, but also travel restrictions etc are dependant on this USA data being accurate.

ohthegoats · 17/07/2020 16:01

I want the surveillance reports to carry on. Don't care if there isn't much to add, but I want to know where outbreaks are being reported from - not location in the country, but sector - food packaging, care homes, schools etc. They are going to need that info to get parents comfortable with sending kids back to school.

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 16:08

PHE have tweeted about the data issue raised yesterday.

Basically -

  • of the 40,528 deaths they have reported until 15 July, 90% happened within 28 of a positive test; so removing those which happened after that would remove 4,149 deaths
  • however of those who died after 28 days, CV was named as the main cause of death for 47%

So removing those who died after 28 days and didn't have CV as the main cause of death would remove 2,199 deaths,

However, we have to remember that at the start of this PHE were probably under reporting by only registering those who had a lab confirmed test.

PatriciaHolm · 17/07/2020 16:11

The PHE Surveillance report is out too, with some more localised data (taken from the daily case reports so not new data).

All looking fine, number of outbreaks slightly down. Pretty much everything, including 111/GP triage, all stable, hospital admissions and current numbers down, all of which we know.

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