Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 12

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 12 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

anyone still having urticaria should ask to be tested for helicobacter pylori dermnetnz.org/topics/helicobacter-pylori-infection-and-skin-diseases/

and if that is negative taking more than the usual level of antihistamine.

I'd assume the ship was at least one person being infected at the hotel. They are asymptomatic and pass it on to others who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms they think cannot be the virus. Finally it reaches all the crew but fisherman are probably young and fit and its just chance that those most susceptible are the last to be infected.

The current position is that there are a small number of serious outbreaks - mainly but not exclusively due to meat processing plants. There are a lot of smaller increases and although someone may know the reason for them it doesnt follow they will be on mumsnet.

Cases per day of specimen - running at a fairly flat 7 day average of high 500s all of June, tbh. However 7 day average of tests processed in June per day has been increasing, so a flat cases average is nothing to worry about (more testing = more cases!)

Admissions - running average is steadily down at England level, as is the number of people in hospital.

Deaths - running average for day of death steadily down

No evidence of any significant issues from beaches/BLM/etc etc etc

July! we are in July!

somehow.

Encouraging figures Alec and Patricia. The ONS are slow with their infection survey release today.

@cathyandclare

Encouraging figures Alec and Patricia. The ONS are slow with their infection survey release today.

I was just thinking the same thing. Though to be honest I suspect they are trying to work out how to say pretty much exactly what they said last week and make it sound new ;-) as I can't see they are going to have much to say really.

Yes, all the key indicators seem to look good. The only potential area to watch is the increased number of cases on Zoe. It is still within the prior week's confidence level so might be absolutely nothing to worry about but it could be an indicator of a few community outbreaks among younger / healthier population.

Here, infections concentrated at meat plants, plus a couple of logistics centres like DPD,
several churches, a couple of care homes and a geriatric hospital,
some large family & block parties.

No outbreaks at schools, despite being open at least pt from 4 May to late June.

Surprisingly, but reassuring to gym rat me:
no gyms either - and they've been open since 16 May

UK government orders halt to Randox Covid-19 tests over safety issues

If you have any test kits, check they are not Randox

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/16/uk-government-orders-halt-randox-covid-19-tests-over-safety-issues

Care homes and members of public told to immediately stop using kits produced by firm

Yes I should have said that in many local authority areas all the indicators are going in the right direction. However with the caveat that at the moment the vulnerable are still largely staying home. So we need population studies with random testing to know whether there is a raft of asymptomatic infection out there that is not being picked up. It's possible for infection to spread substantially through a young and fit population (fishermen) until it hits a vulnerable person who decides a week later to get a test.

The ONS give regular updates of % infected on their national serology reports

Their samples give us a rough idea of prevalence,
which we can match that up with confirmed cases for those periods, to estimate what % are being detected

Hospital admission data will give an estimate of the % cases that have the most serious symptoms

ONS indicates only a v low level of infection atm

Place marking

So we need population studies with random testing to know whether there is a raft of asymptomatic infection out there that is not being picked up.

Yes, this is exactly the objective of the ONS surveillance program:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

The results are usually published by the end of the week (on Thursday - Friday) so we should be able to see the next update relatively soon.

Last week numbers were particularly low.

anyone still having urticaria should ask to be tested for helicobacter pylori

That is interesting, already. I've been having gastric symptoms for about a month and when I had similar a few years earlier my gp did the h. Pylori test - it was negative, though.

But this time I've also had episodes of very itchy hands and wrists which develop a rash when scratched. I've taken one Covid test (negative) already through Zoe thanks to the gastric symptoms....I'm expecting to be offered another now having reported the rash.

So we need population studies with random testing to know whether there is a raft of asymptomatic infection out there that is not being picked up

@alreadytaken just to confirm with other posters this is happening. I had a letter through yesterday.

Study worldwide of 7 cohorts, showing decrease in Covid severity, including U.K. Biggest correlation was with increasing temperature, looked at various other variables including population age.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.11.20147157v1

Where is the weekly surveillance report from PHE? It's worrying me that there's a large jump in cases in my local area, according to the dashboard.

Where is the weekly surveillance report from PHE? It's worrying me that there's a large jump in cases in my local area, according to the dashboard.

Not sure I understand this, but maybe somebody with better maths?

Report on statistical anomaly which means that no-one can ever recover from Covid
www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

[quote whatsnext2]Not sure I understand this, but maybe somebody with better maths?

Report on statistical anomaly which means that no-one can ever recover from Covid
www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/[/quote]
What it's saying is that there are 2 statistics for deaths in England included in the numbers each day, and one is misleading.

One is NHS numbers for those who died in hospital with a positive test - fine.
The other is PHE numbers for those who died outside hospital with a positive test.

It's the latter that they are suggesting is misleading. Details of all people who have a positive test are recorded centrally. Each day, this list is checked against patient records for those who have died, in any setting. This would suggest that whenever anyone who has had positive test dies, of anything, they are included in the stats. They could have died in an accident, or whatever, 3 months after having had a positive test and recovered, but are still counted as an non-hospital covid death.

Which is misleading, if that is indeed what is happening. The technical notes on the PHE deaths do suggest this is the case.

It's always been known that the deaths are "those who died with" rather than explicitly "those who died of" , but this would suggest quite some overcounting.

[quote whatsnext2]Study worldwide of 7 cohorts, showing decrease in Covid severity, including U.K. Biggest correlation was with increasing temperature, looked at various other variables including population age.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.11.20147157v1[/quote]
This is worrying for COVID in winter - very worrying.

But in that case why have warm countries been so affected? Brazil Mexico India even California???
What am I missing?

@theinvisablewoman dunno could be worse I suppose.

@PatriciaHolm thanks

Does that make death rate at low numbers almost meaningless statistically then?

Sorry I think my expectation of everyone here is very high!
I do realise that you are dealing with data and are not in the guesswork business which I'm asking for.
I'm definitely more suited to lurking but really do appreciate all of your input here and will keeep reading