This too shall pass? Or is this just the future now?

[BumbleWumble]

A lot of people seem confident that this situation will pass and we will get back to a semblance of normality. But realistically how will this happen?

Most hopes seem to be pinned on a vaccine. We are told this could be available next year, but how likely is that really and how safe would such a rushed one be? It's possible in reality it could take years or one could never be found.

They could come up with treatments that make the disease more routinely curable. However we would then still continue to run the risk of catching it and presumably some people would still die. An effective treatment would take much of the fear out of it though and could presumably herald a return to greater normality.

Other than those two possibilities what else is there? Unless there is some miraculous thus far unknown factor, such as a large percentage of the population possessing natural immunity, the only possibility seems natural herd immunity. But this would mean a huge number of deaths and probably an even greater number of people left with serious life long damage. It's not an acceptable strategy, and even if it was, lasting immunity, or even any immunity at all, is not guaranteed.

But if no way to get on top of this virus is found, then the future seems bleak beyond belief. People will be constantly dying or becoming incapacitated by the disease. And life will be the awful 'New Normal' forever more. Social distancing will be here to stay and people will never be able to freely interact with family and friends again. We'll be constantly wary in all public places and life will be lived confined to the house as much as possible. There'll be no more social gatherings, no fun and enjoyable events. Essentially we will have to treat each other as potential lepers forever more. I just can't bear the thought of this being the future, as I'm sure most people can't, yet realistically the options for getting out of the situation seem very limited and might not even be possible.

I'm unsure how long social distancing can carry on for before our economy crashes. So many people will loose their jobs, Jet2 have today announced thousands of job losses. I think people will get fed up of it all, and feel the benefits of getting back to "normal" outweigh the risks. I believe at the moment 1 in 2000 people are currently infected, so there is probably more chance of something else happening to you (car accident/other illness etc). I'm a nurse so I know first hand how devastating this virus can be, but there's lots of other terrible illnesses thousands die of everyday. At the moment it just feels like I'm existing and not living, and I'm sure many feel the same.

I understand your concern, but there's never been any virus in the history of time that has stopped people living normally for a life time. You're literally thinking beyond worst possible scenario. Unless this virus is the worst one to ever befall humanity then I don't think this will happen.

@divafever99

I'm unsure how long social distancing can carry on for before our economy crashes. So many people will loose their jobs, Jet2 have today announced thousands of job losses. I think people will get fed up of it all, and feel the benefits of getting back to "normal" outweigh the risks. I believe at the moment 1 in 2000 people are currently infected, so there is probably more chance of something else happening to you (car accident/other illness etc). I'm a nurse so I know first hand how devastating this virus can be, but there's lots of other terrible illnesses thousands die of everyday. At the moment it just feels like I'm existing and not living, and I'm sure many feel the same.

I feel the same about it just being an existence. It's like in order to live, we basically have to not live now.

However since one of the major problems is the virus' natural extremely high level of contagiousness, if people eventually just go back to normal, won't we see it spiralling out of control with exponential spread again?

What makes people think things won't eventually go back to normal? It's never happened with any other virus

Most other virus swept through the population killing those they were going to kill. This had to happen as social distance as we have now was not possible in 1918, people could not work from home and order stuff off Amazon!!

Realistically this whole pandemic worldwide is riding on the drugs/cure theory to get us out of it. This was not the strategy for future viruses and does beg the question “but what if we never get drugs or a cure”,. Seems to me that we would then end up in a difficult situation in constant social restrictions to restrict And repress the spread Which have never really been attempted in this scale to achieve virus suppression because quite frankly they have never been possible before!

It's not brilliant news that the one treatment found to be successful has just been bought out entirely by the US.

All stocks for July, August & September have been bought by them...just reported now on news apps.

@wheresmymojo

It's not brilliant news that the one treatment found to be successful has just been bought out entirely by the US.

All stocks for July, August & September have been bought by them...just reported now on news apps.

Dexamethasone?

remdesivir

Good old Trump. Gilead are greedy. They've charged a huge amount for this drug

Fortunately Dexamethasone is better. However ...

The world has lived with and overcome things much worse than Covid. Smallpox springs to mind. Eradicated now of course but life as it was then didn’t grind to a halt.

It’s important to get numbers to a low level so we can keep on top of it with testing and quarantine, even if there isn’t a vaccine, which I doubt.

Every other pandemic has ended with a return to normal life, there’s no reason this will be any different. Life doesn’t work socially distanced or locked down

Best to think that this may have knocked ten years off your life, and just get on with it.

I was sceptical about using lockdown to eradicate the virus simply because there are so few diseases which we have completely eradicated in history and I thought that this strategy would lock us into indefinite lockdown where the minute we eased restrictions we’d see cases rising until we had some level of herd immunity anyway or we roll out a vaccine / cure. I have to say that the strategy has worked better than I expected at pushing cases down to a low level in a way that might make track and trace a viable way to crack down on new outbreaks. I think it remains to be seen if the effects of the response will be worse than the disease and whether we can get out of this without reimposing lockdowns.

There was a Swedish study quoted in the telegraph today which basically found that the level of immunity in Stockholm is about double that found in antibody tests (so 30% of Stockholm have some immunity) possibly due to T cell response. If correct and the same applies to the uk we might have about 14% immunity with 35% in London. That isn’t huge but might explain why we’ve seen such a slowing in new cases recently and mean that we reach some level of herd immunity quicker than expected.

The hospital death rate has also now fallen from 6% to 1.5% and given that only the sickest are admitted to hospital this suggests that, for whatever reason, fatality rate is currently very low. This might be for the sad reason that some of the most vulnerable have died.

I’d like to say we can’t pursue the current method indefinitely but it’s lasted longer than I initially thought possible so no idea how long it might go on for now. I do think people will get less scared of the virus as they start going out and about again and more worried about maintaining restrictions as they start to see the economic impact though.

There is a further factor that, as i understand it, most viruses mutate to become less deadly. It is not in the interests of viruses to kill their hosts, as that limits the possibilities for further infection. Better to mutate into something that debilitates but doesn’t kill, all the better for infecting the next person you meet. Like the (many) common colds. It may not happen immediately, but it may well happen eventually.

There have been so many advances made in a short time already though. At the beginning of the year we hadn't even heard of Coronavirus. Now, at the start of July we have several (16?) vaccine trials moving ahead strongly. Two treatment drugs approved and many more being trialled. The ability to test 200 thousand people a day for it. Antibody tests and I think a faster test is being developed.
Basically, modern science is amazing. Long term we may alter some of our behaviour forever in small ways. Hopefully the hand washing will stay. But generally this will be a distant memory before you know it. Try to stay positive and enjoy the bright moments when they come. This won't be forever!

I think part of it will require a revaluation of the fear of death. Never in our history has death been so feared or avoided. It seems to, at least for some, create a sense that they should be immortal and dodge whatever lays in store. The everyday risks, at least into adulthood are so small that we cannot fathom an 'untimely' death and the age at which a death is considered 'untimely' is constantly being pushed back. Life expectancy has nearly doubled over the last 200 years. By 1920, despite WW1 and Spanish flu it has increased to mid 50s. Yes we want a cure and effective vaccine but we need to be realistic about our own mortality and enjoy our lives too without such a fear of an 'untimely' death.

Yes I would like to live to see my children and grandchildren grow up, but realistically if I were considering the animal me I have passed the expectation of longevity of a human 'in the wild' also of a semi- feral human, I am now the equivalent of a pampered house cat or a cat who at least lives in the house at night. I don't want to live my life like a rare specimen in the zoo, far exceeding my natural life but giving up all my independence in the process.

We have been sticking to lockdown rules but we can't live like this forever in the hope that next week, next month, next year it will all be magiced away by the immortality fairy.

It will pass, but not yet.

Best to think that this may have knocked ten years off your life, and just get on with it.

I really hope not. On a purely selfish level I am hoping to meet someone (after a difficult marriage and horrible divorce) before it’s too late.

Sorry, that is entirely irrelevant and of course doesn’t matter, but social distancing has put paid to even being able to contemplate a relationship at the moment.

Great post @Chessie678

You seem to be under the impression that the virus is much worse than it actually is. For most people it’s not going to be the worst illness they have. I’m fairly certain I had it in feb, I’ve had a few flus that were much worse.

Emperor...you were obviously very lucky, as have a lot of people been. But, it's also killed thousands of people, and we cant forget that. And it's no good playing the "but they had an underlying illness and I'm fine" card, because bad stuff does happen to people all the time. Lots of people with no underlying illness have been killed as have lots of young people. If you've had it, great, but lots of people can be justifyingly scared

It will pass and life will return to normal, it might be a bumpy ride for awhile but we will get through it. I know nothing but my secret hope is that it will mutate and become weaker. This is what I’m holding onto.

Until around the middle of the last century everybody just had to live with the fact that any day they might contract an illness and die.

Presumably if this thing stays around then we will gradually have to accept that mindset again.

@EmperorCovidula a 28 year old US Doctor blogged his Covid symptoms, at one point he felt death would be preferable to how wretched he was feeling. It will be the worst illness that a lot of people will suffer in their young lives.
The virus leaves life changing after effects for many sufferers who have no underlying conditions.
I’m not scared that I will die if I catch it, I’m a 44 year old healthy woman with no conditions but I am scared about being left with long lasting after effects that will impact my life.

@TabbyMumz very few young people have died, only about 300 under 45. And about 90% of deaths were in people with prexisiting conditions. This disease really isn’t that dangerous that life will never go back to normal. I wasn’t lucky at all, my experience was entirely normal.

@Llamazoom maybe it’s a case of personal preference then. I don’t find a little difficulty breathing anywhere near as unpleasant as vomiting on an empty stomach non-stop or double ear infections. I don’t mean to compare to people who have severe cases but for those who have mild cases (I.e. not requiring hospitalisation it’s unlikely to be the worst they’ve experienced unless they’ve been very lucky).