Are we headed for a recession?

[Whathastheworldbecome]

Boris has pledged another 5 billion to put into infrastructure/ building projects so that we don’t end up like the 1930s Great Depression.

I don’t understand how borrowing more money doesn’t undermine the economy further?

There seems to be little talk of any recession at the minute and the housing market seems to be holding up

We were at the start of a recession even before Covid-19 hit our shores...You watch as furlough ends in October the unemployment go through the roof !! It's going to be deep !!!!!

We were at the start of a recession even before Covid-19 hit our shores

Evidence? The statistics don't agree.

@Badbadbunny

They need to make companies like Amazon who have a huge market here, pay proper tax

A huge amount of what is sold on Amazon is from small UK businesses using it as a platform/marketplace like ebay, so those should be paying full UK VAT and taxes on profits etc. It's EU rules that allow Amazon to divert some of their commissions etc to low tax countries such as Luxembourg, in the same way that Google's European head office is in Ireland (due to Irelands low corporation tax). It's a Europe wide issue, not just the UK.

Raising tax on higher earners tends to have unforeseen consequences such as we see today with GPs reducing their hours to avoid a 62% marginal tax rate and a tax penalty on high lifetime pension pots, both of which hit GPs hard.

Agree re the small businesses who use it as a platform.

For Amazon itself...we aren't in the EU (and will be out of the transition agreement in just a few months). If they were planning on doing something about it from December/January they'd already have to be working on the legislation now.

I won't be holding my breath TBH even after Brexit and the pandemic are done.

TM Lewin just announced its closing all stores (albeit still operating online). 600 job losses expected.

Some people have their head in the sand.

Despite Johnson's new 'build, build, build' mantra, the economy is fucked for the next 5-10 years at least.

I've said this before and I know many disagree but the destruction this is causing to our economy and livelihoods is depressing. Is it really worth it for a virus with a 99%+ survival rate which only a subset of people will get and a clearly identifiable vulnerable population. And we are right at the start of the destruction too

Harveys furniture just gone into admin as well :(

I think the countries that deal well with the virus will suffer less economic impact too. We've had the worst of both.

It is hard not to be at NZ because they can get back to a lot more normality.

The economic fallout will be harsh.

Friend of ds1 has been made redundant today from an airline : been there for ten years and is completely gutted. Of course she is one of many many people facing this today after being on furlough since mid March. I feel so sorry for the young : house prices are still high where we live and nearly all my sons friends still live at home with parents.
At 28 I had a mortgage and a one year old and a secure job. Any hope of these poor kids having anything like this or my opportunities in life is not the same just now.
Yes there is a big recession looming and I feel so sorry for people facing it all.
It's heartbreaking.

@ohthegoats

Erm...

It's going to be a fucking catastrophic cliff edge depression. World wide.

This.

It's not what I'm hearing. The word in my circle of friends is.....

Car sales are going very well indeed
Builders merchants can't get enough stock
Travel bookings are increasing (media report so anecdotal)
Know of Tilers, plumbers, roofers and they can't keep up
Loft conversions and extensions still in progress locally
Everytime I see a skip truck it's full
DPD/Hermes/Post office vans are in abundance delivering
Local retail park today....Queue's out side Next, Halfords, Sports Direct, Aldi, M&S
Don't believe everything you hear in the (shit for brains, negative) media.
I'm not saying it's going to be all sunshine and roses but there are seeds of optimism.

@The80sweregreat

Friend of ds1 has been made redundant today from an airline : been there for ten years and is completely gutted. Of course she is one of many many people facing this today after being on furlough since mid March. I feel so sorry for the young : house prices are still high where we live and nearly all my sons friends still live at home with parents. At 28 I had a mortgage and a one year old and a secure job. Any hope of these poor kids having anything like this or my opportunities in life is not the same just now. Yes there is a big recession looming and I feel so sorry for people facing it all. It's heartbreaking.

But people still insist that it's because those young people are just spoilt and lazy and spend all their money on lattes and holidays and can't afford to buy because they just want a show home.

Heard precisely the opposite about the car industry here.

The fact small tradespeople are ok is pretty low impact. Hospitality is looking terrible - millions of jobs.

And the queues are due to limited numbers in store, not loads of spending.

I have heard on the grapevine that builders and tilers etc are busy and will be busier with all these new homes going up too ( good for them) but it may also indicate that people are not moving home and are just staying put , which won't help the housing market.
I know my generation may be alright but the young won't be in such a good position: well not the ones I know anyway!
I hope things won't be that bad , but I'm not hopeful.

Oh yes, the whole ' we lived on beans and had rats' generation don't stop to think that they could buy a place with ordinary jobs ( dh and I had normal jobs) and how much easier it seemed than it is today.
Ds1 has been saving for years for a place ; on your own it's impossible. Yes he'll spend a bit on clothes or a concert ticket but it's a drop in the ocean compared to the cost of even a humble one bed place where we live and you have to have some fun too when your young! We used to go out and still could get a modest mortgage.
I know people have a different view but I still feel the young have been really screwed over again.

The car yards were reopened because they were about to go under. They told the govt this and the govt "suddenly realised" that car sales outside is ok.

Builders and trades? Like hairdressers, lots of backed up demand (i.e. half completed jobs etc) but I wouldn't project that into 2021.

The clothes in the shops are last season's rejects (no new stock coming in from abroad as orders were cancelled) and there isn't a lot being bought.

I feel so unsettled about life just now.
Mostly it's worry about other people and jobs. It's so grim.
Hospitality and the arts / theatre will also be badly hit and the revenue they bring in will also affect the government coffers too. All this money helps fund things like the nhs, schools etc. the domino effects are huge.

What new homes going up ?
I see no evidence of that

Retail and office space companies are in for a bumpy ride
unemployment due to rise by a million in the next month in the UK alone

There are lots of new places going up near me. It was put off for years and challenged a lot , but the planning finally got through last year.
They look nice, but they are expensive and not that close to the town or the train station. They are also not priced for first time buyers.
I went for a drive out into the wilds of Essex / Suffolk border last week and everywhere are ' say no to the new house' signs everywhere ! Land is being sold off in pockets of areas where new homes haven't been built for decades it seems , but I doubt any younger people could afford them ( not without lots of help financially or an inheritance of some sort)
I guess some might be lucky enough to buy one but the prices are very high.

My god we sure are in a recession, or the beginnings of one anyway. If I remember from my economics a level (a very long time ago) a recession is when GDP shrinks for two successive quarters. Hence we are only at the very beginning, by that definition.

But on the basis that huge swathes of the economy have 0 sales for the past 3 months, and those that have been able to re-open many are seeing very sluggish sales, and/or are having to slash prices. Some sectors still aren’t able to reopen. Even those sectors that have been able to continue to trade throughout eg food retailers have had squeezed margins due to all the new practices to cope with the pandemic, incurring additional costs.

The economic outlook is frightening to be frank. The government certainly aren’t going to tell you that. Not least because we desperately need to get the economy moving again which means getting people out int he high street spending their money, rather than stick it down the back of the sofa. That’s what my instinct is to do, because we are going to need it for the days ahead.

We are already in recession. They announced that weeks and weeks ago.

No - we are not heading for a recession - we are already in one.

It’s going to be brutal. For an economy to even grow by a small amount nowadays, people need to have confidence. At the moment many don’t have any.

I don’t think many realise just how bad this could be.

We need a vaccine or treatment and we need it quickly.

Oh and Boris is in charge. However bad you think things will add in that toxic clown. Theresa May's look of utter disgust in Parliament today said it all.

@AlecTrevelyan006

TM Lewin just announced its closing all stores (albeit still operating online). 600 job losses expected.

Some people have their head in the sand.

Despite Johnson's new 'build, build, build' mantra, the economy is fucked for the next 5-10 years at least.

I've said this before and I know many disagree but the destruction this is causing to our economy and livelihoods is depressing. Is it really worth it for a virus with a 99%+ survival rate which only a subset of people will get and a clearly identifiable vulnerable population. And we are right at the start of the destruction too

The furlough scheme was definitely needed, but one drawback is that its given millions a false sense of security about employment. I think there's going to be a tipping point when under-50s really realise that their risk of dying of Covid is minute but their risk of losing their livelihoods is very very real.

Car sales are going very well indeed
Builders merchants can't get enough stock
Travel bookings are increasing (media report so anecdotal)
Know of Tilers, plumbers, roofers and they can't keep up
Loft conversions and extensions still in progress locally
Everytime I see a skip truck it's full
DPD/Hermes/Post office vans are in abundance delivering
Local retail park today....Queue's out side Next, Halfords, Sports Direct, Aldi, M&S

I’m not having a go at this particular PP but just to point out that:
Builders merchants
Tilers, plumbers, roofers
Loft conversions and extensions still in progress locally
Skip trucks full

They are all fundamentally the same sector - either building new houses which will have been started months/ years ago, or private individuals doing up homes. I think some people who have been either furloughed or working from home have been carrying our home improvements, especially where they’ve managed to save money over recent weeks without the expense of commuting.

Retail shops may have queues outside, but in many cases stores have to slash prices to get rid of stock still hanging around since March

Travel sector? No travel for past three months and only starting to get going again now, albeit on a very limited basis. Even if the rest of the trading year is entirely unaffected (Which seems incredibly unlikely) that still will see sales down by 25% on a very basic level. Did you see that EasyJet have just laid off 5,000 staff??