Assuming a vaccine is found...

[Blueberryham]

So if they find a feasible vaccine in the next year. In all likelyhood it will only provide about a years worth of protection. I think this is what they said about the oxford vaccine. Also it wouldn’t stop people catching it, only stop people getting worst symptoms.

So we will have a massive vaccination scheme every year of all front line workers and over 50’s. Along with the usual flu jab.

And we would be better off if we also had some good treatments for anyone who the vaccine doesn’t work for. Or who wasn’t included in the vaccination schedule. And even then we are likely to have a significant amount of social distancing in place to minimise spread so we don’t overwhelm health system.

This is likely our best scenario for the next few years? So it’s not a matter of find vaccine, job done, back to normal.
Do you think I am right? I was just pondering this.

I'm sceptical there will be an effective vaccine.

Tough political choices ahead in the next 6 to 12 months.

I think there is a high chance of a vaccine. It will take time. There are currently about 145 in development and being trialled. I hope that as time goes on they find antivirals that mean it is not a deadly virus and life can resume for all.

I’m very optimistic about a vaccine. If the oxford vaccine works I think it’s possible the vulnerable will be vaccinated by Christmas.

As soon as a vaccine has been administered to the majority we should be able to stop SD. We don’t need absolutely everyone to be immune, just most people. If most people are immune the virus won’t be able spread.

I think given the resources and motivation to find a vaccine COVID 19 could well be the second disease ever to be completely eradicated in a few years time.

I think the vaccine will be here quicker than you think OP and also that it will be more effective than you think.
I also think more effective treatments will be found soon

Oh there will be vaccines.

But will there be one effective enough to open a country like NZ up without significant mortality and an overwhelmed health system?

The question is: exactly how effective will it be?

Things are looking positive for a vaccine. As PP said, they don't need to vaccinate everyone because a vaccinated person will not spread the disease so any number of vaccinated people in the community reduces spread.

I know it's not flu but if we didn't have a flu vaccine the nhs would be overwhelmed with flu patients each year. The vaccine keeps it under control and hopefully the same will be true for covid.

I think a combination of better and faster testing, better treatment (I think they’ll find a drug combo that prevents most hospitalisations) and a vaccine, even if imperfect/requiring booster shots/only works for some people would bring the death rate down to the point where most people would just get on with their lives as normal. The NHS will adapt. And if it comes to it more money will get poured into it if that’s what it takes to open up again. After a few rounds through the population it’ll become another cold virus, possibly with longer lasting impacts among the very elderly.

The story in other parts of the world, with fewer resources, may be different.

I think so, yes.

I’m confident of a vaccine but it’s longevity is a question.

The question is: exactly how effective will it be?
Well we don't know yet, obviously. I'm sure there are plenty of scientists working out how effective it will be, modeling how many people will need to have the vaccine to reduce spread etc. But I don't think many on mumsnet are privy to that information

I think the massive benefit for poorer countries with respect to COVID is that it is in the richer countries interest for COVID to be eradicated.

The reality is that it has no impact at all on most of Europe if children die of polio in poorer countries so there is much less motivation to do very much about it. The self interest of richer countries will motivate their governments to assist poorer countries with a vaccine for COVID.

I just really hope when that motivation will remain long enough to make a difference with things other than COVID. Children shouldn’t be dying of polio anywhere.

They do not know if the oxford vaccine works it is being trailed the aim is to prevent infection but it may not achieve that the trail in thousands of humans is needed that not one study In five monkeys.

They do not know how long it will last but it cannot be known to last longer than about six months as it is only six months since anyone had it, they would only know if it last a year after someone has had the vaccine a year ago and could be tested for antibodies. It seems unlikely that it would lay linger than that due to how short natural immunity lasts and it is the suggestion that natural immunity does not last long that makes me skeptics they will manage a working vaccine.

If they could get a vaccine that gave a years protection then yes it could then be given as an annual jab to the vulnerable and we could return to normal but until we have the results of the vaccine trails we will not know what we have available to us.

Cant see there being a vaccine. I think the amount of people its been through there are too many mutations now.

I am extremely optimistic about a vaccine. It is a race for the first one to be found. I think Christmas is unlikely (but secretly love it when people suggest then as it gives me hope!) But i do believe we will have one rolled out by Easter.
OP. We will not be living socially distant forever.

You can track the vaccines here. www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.amp.html

@PomBearsyummy

Coronaviruses do not mutate in the same way as flu does. All the scientists leading the trials have said they do not think the very minor changes that have occurred will effect the efficacy of a vaccine.

I honestly find it impossible to believe that if we can come up with functional vaccines against coronaviruses for cows and chickens the entire scientific community of the world will be unable to pull something out of the bag here.

oldbag (sorry it won't let me tag you!) I love that website. When I looked last around a week ago, only 2 were in phase 3. So another one is in phase 3 now. All a step in the right direction. I just read this on there too regarding the Oxford one...

The vaccine is in a Phase II/III trial in England and Phase III trials in Brazil and South Africa. Supported by Operation Warp Speed, the project may deliver emergency vaccines by October.

How amazing would October be!

I think this article gives a good explanation about how viruses mutate and why they don’t think it will be a significant problem in this case:

www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine

That's a great link @oldbagface, thanks for sharing.

The Oxford team is also developing a douboe antibody treatment that they believe will be more effective for elderly people than the vaccine.
There are also two existing drugs that are believed to reduce mortality rates - dexemethesone and remdesivir.

With the Oxford vaccine they’ve found that in pigs a booster shot considerably increases immune reaction. I think it probably will end up being rolled out for this winter in the UK/Europe as it’s likely to provide some protection, which is better than nothing, and the contracts are in place. It may be that it’s only used for one year as a better vaccination is found soon.

I love reading the threads. They give me so much hope for the future

I believe they do have a decent vaccine for coronavirus/es in cows as this is where the money was, up to now, for worthwhile prevention. I still think that treatment, workable treatment would be a game-changer. Have been trying to think of what more we now know can do something in the short timescale since Feb (clotting and how to help that; using CPAP ahead of ventilators; steroid treatment; some damage being more similar to lung problems from altitude). So there is progress, and everything counts.

This gives me hope

I love these people who pop up on vaccine threads just to say ‘can’t see there being a vaccine’ .. on what grounds?! Have you read any of the vaccine trial info from the actual scientists undertaking the research? Obviously, we cannot know for sure but I actually seems far more unlikely we won’t find a vaccine. It may not be this year, it may take a couple years but there is a huge scientific effort going on here & billions pumped into the teams researching. We’ve got corona vaccines for animals so it seems very unlikely we won’t be able to find an effective one for humans!

Medicine is hugely money driven. There’s a lot of money here.