Assuming a vaccine is found...

[Blueberryham]

So if they find a feasible vaccine in the next year. In all likelyhood it will only provide about a years worth of protection. I think this is what they said about the oxford vaccine. Also it wouldn’t stop people catching it, only stop people getting worst symptoms.

So we will have a massive vaccination scheme every year of all front line workers and over 50’s. Along with the usual flu jab.

And we would be better off if we also had some good treatments for anyone who the vaccine doesn’t work for. Or who wasn’t included in the vaccination schedule. And even then we are likely to have a significant amount of social distancing in place to minimise spread so we don’t overwhelm health system.

This is likely our best scenario for the next few years? So it’s not a matter of find vaccine, job done, back to normal.
Do you think I am right? I was just pondering this.

Is there a link to this claim that the Oxford vaccine may only be effective for a year? I haven't seen that at all.
I am very optimistic about a vaccine. Even if one works but is time limited, it will help while others are developed. The best scientists in the world are working on this with shit loads of funding. I don't get the gloom at all. Trials have already progressed faster than was hoped. Everything I've read seems positive.

I honestly find it impossible to believe that if we can come up with functional vaccines against coronaviruses for cows and chickens the entire scientific community of the world will be unable to pull something out of the bag here

But a vaccine for animals doesn't have to be safe. It just needs to be effective and economic. A vaccine for humans will have to meet much higher safety standards. It's not that easy.

Humans also live longer than animals so it needs to provide much longer immunity

It doesn’t need to provide much longer immunity, not right now. A year would be enough to get things under control. I’m sure the second generation vaccines will improve on the first generation.

Of course a vaccine for animals has to be safe! Why would farmers pay to vaccinate their livestock with an unsafe vaccine? It would make no economic sense to produce an unsafe animal vaccine, it wouldn’t be commercially viable.

In any event, the Oxford vaccine has passed all the safety trials, it only remains to be seen if it’s effective.

No it doesn’t. We have a flu vaccine every year, one assumes we might have a corona one yearly as well. We don’t need an initial vaccine to last 20 years.

And vaccines for animals absoloutly do have to be safe 🤦🏼‍♀️ Of course they do. Or what would be the point of vaccinating them?! Bit counter productive if it makes them ill or kills them! And we eat the meat, so again, it needs to be safe for human consumption!

And in terms of safety, well clearly at least 3 have already passed safety standards as they are being administered to humans around the world with no reported issues. If there was a remote issue with someone becoming ill, trials would be halted. Thankfully, we have many successful vaccines that we can use as a starting point in the development of any new vaccine! That’s why Oxford got so quickly off the ground. It has been largely tested as part of the SARS vaccine programme that was never needed.

@ButteryPuffin

Is there a link to this claim that the Oxford vaccine may only be effective for a year? I haven't seen that at all. I am very optimistic about a vaccine. Even if one works but is time limited, it will help while others are developed. The best scientists in the world are working on this with shit loads of funding. I don't get the gloom at all. Trials have already progressed faster than was hoped. Everything I've read seems positive.

I just typed it into Google and found a multitude of articles. Here is one from Sky News but plenty others out there for you to search - news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-oxford-university-vaccine-to-provide-protection-for-about-a-year-says-drugmaker-12007789

At the moment, we don’t know if a vaccine will work. Once we get a working one, then I think it’s reasonable to look at how long it lasts.

Some vaccines take years but every scientist I’ve heard talk about it has said there is reason to be positive about one for this.

Oh and on the question I think back to normal

I am optimistic about a vaccine too. There are many being trialled the Oxford one had been in clinical trails with people for a couple of months now and the imperial college one is also now in clinical trials. I don't think the fact that it mutates is insurmountable it will just need to be updated annually as they do with the flu vaccination.

There are many ways of using vaccines, it’s necessarily a case of immunising everyone.

I was talking with a neighbour who is a hospital consultant. He said that even a vaccine which gave 4 months’ protection would be valuable, because it could used in the area around an outbreak to help suppress it. So imagine we had a working vaccine right now - it could be rolled out across the parts of Leicester where numbers have been increasing, plus surrounding areas. It would squash the outbreak in that area, and by the time the immunity wore off, the virus would have long run out of susceptible hosts.

The Oxford team are talking about 12 months protection, but as someone who has had an annual flu jab for the past 15 years I am pretty relaxed about that.

Yes, exactly this. I don't know why people think it needs to last years. Even a few months protection would be enough to buy some time for more research. I think December is optimistic but I think they will have at least found one this year with rolling out early next year.

Didn't oxford say it would be ready by October ?

@Deblou43 yes, see what I posted on page 1 :) obviously that is if it works.

And vaccines for animals absoloutly do have to be safe 🤦🏼‍♀️ Of course they do. Or what would be the point of vaccinating them?! Bit counter productive if it makes them ill or kills them!

Yes but let's say you give 1000 healthy chickens a corona vaccine, to prevent a Coronavirus infection that might have killed 1pct of them.

The vaccine, let's say causes a hypersensitivity in 0.05pct of the chickens and they die. It still makes economic sense to vaccinate the chickens.

Now let's say the same applies to humans. Would you sacrifice 0.05pct of the population to save 1pct? I mean, it makes sense from a utilitarian perspective. But children are highly unlikely to die from Coronavirus. So you could be sacrificing healthy children to save the most vulnerable...the over 80s....still such a good idea?

People are not livestock and we do not value their lives in the same way.
Vaccines for humans do have to meet a far higher safety standard.

But the Oxford vaccine has passed the safety stages of the trials. They have used this type of vaccine before and it has a good safety record. They carried out some additional animal testing at the request of the regulator (some of the SARS vaccine candidates had made the disease worse if people did end up becoming infected with it. Even though this is an entirely different type of vaccine they did some additional testing with monkeys to be sure that this didn’t happen with the current vaccine.)

They are looking at an emergency licence in October if the vaccine is effective.

@Sunshinegirl82 I'm really hoping so too! October would be fantastic. I wonder when we will know!

Hugglespuffed I've been wondering this too:if(as I'm praying for) it's October, when will know? I'm shielding and have to be honest, my MH is starting to shake a bit. So I'm trying not to pin all hopes on October, but the noises coming from Oxford, abd AZ producing At Risk, make it hard not to hope

Oh user I am so sorry to hear that. It is so so tough isn't it. I reckon surely by September they must know if it is likely. That is only just over 2 months away.
Big hugs though. I am keeping everything crossed for you.

Anyone know where we can follow the progress of the oxford vaccine? I usually just look on that new York Times but it doesn't go in to great detail.

The latest I heard (speculation?) is July for indications on the Oxford vaccine. They've gone to Brazil and South Africa to test as levels of virus are currently low here.

In Professor Gilbert's webinar she said they can't give efficacy right now as it's still in trial and no one knows which vaccine they've had, Covid or meningitis (I think that's correct?)

That’s right @tobee - in fact there’s someone in AMA who has been on the trial.

A family member is in the Pharma industry. He’s cautious about the vaccines - seem too many drugs which seem to be the answer to a prayer fall at the final hurdle. But he thinks the answer to Covid is likely to be holistic. New drugs (or existing) which treat the symptoms and reduce life-altering effects and mortality