Yesterday deaths in hospital’s

[Alex50]

For Coronvirus was only 6, it hasn’t been that number since March. At the peak it was nearly 900 in one day.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-25-June-2020.xlsx

The hospital data usually takes a few days to filter through. If you look back a few days you can see it is down to about 50 a day in hospital. The value of 6 is not exactly accurate. You can same website to see total cumulative data which gives a clearer picture.

Total deaths suggest we are already heading into a second spike. With the mass gatherings this week, plus pubs opening shortly, we can expect an increasing spike and a further lockdown (maybe not everywhere). Same in Europe and the US.

Remember its' ALL deaths that matter i.e. at home, care homes and hospitals.

This graph is clearer

It will be interesting to see the difference year on year, many people who died sadly would have died this year with no Covid, so its impossible for us to see true incremental deaths at this stage.

What we do know is deaths in England is actually starting to drop below the norm of what would normally been expected, which, and I don’t know how to phrase this nicely. Means that people who would have died now died a few weeks earlier and all in the same few week period.

Witty has said they won’t be able to tell until this analysis is done, but he said many people who have died this year, across the Full year have died in a shorter period of time due to Covid. So instead of over twelve months many died in a two month period, skewing the numbers for that period.

Italy is starting to look like they will see very little spike annually. As they have a more elderly population and terrible air quality.

The government was right to lock down, it was imperative anyone who needed treatment could get it, and have the best possible chance of living, but the overlap between those who would have died v what is people who would not have died may actually have been very small. We will need to wait and see,

The numbers of new positive cases are a better indicator of which way things are going.

There's such a long lag on deaths and I can't bear to look

Have you seen todays figures, I think they're playing with us with these figures.

What you need to follow is hospital admissions for covid, as they will climb before the deaths do.

@Devlesko what do you mean by playing with us?

I think we are told what gov want us to be told, is what I meant.
I don't trust a word they say tbh.

@Normalmumandwife

Apparently the chance of catching it when outside is 1 in 17000...BBC this morning. So stupid as it is, it isn't likely to cause a spike...but let's see

That's not the case, the estimate is that 1 in 1700 is infected so that's your chance of coming across someone, if you keep a 2m distance I believe your risk is less than 2% of catching it yourselve

I'm sure someone will correct me if the 2% is no longer the case.

@Devlesko Ah yes. Well PM has his 'road map' and I doubt anything will get in the way of it.

There is no evidence, as yet, for any spike.

Deaths were greater this week than the previous week but only for 3 days, and only by a little - 7, 12 and 13. By contrast, this Tuesday's number was 65 down on last week, and Wednesday's 30 down. Announced deaths this last 7 days were 848; the previous 7 days, 987.

The data is very very lumpy; 22% of the England hospital deaths announced today, for example, occurred over a week ago.

Looking at actual day of death shows a better, more realistic, downwards trend - see attached.

Hospital admissions and ventilator beds in use are on a steady downwards 7 day rolling average trend down as well, which suggests deaths will continue to do so as well, especially given deaths lag admissions by quite some time.

*@PleasantVille ^Normalmumandwife
Apparently the chance of catching it when outside is 1 in 17000...BBC this morning. So stupid as it is, it isn't likely to cause a spike...but let's see
That's not the case, the estimate is that 1 in 1700 is infected so that's your chance of coming across someone, if you keep a 2m distance I believe your risk is less than 2% of catching it yourselve

I'm sure someone will correct me if the 2% is no longer the case.*^

You are wrong. 1 in 1700 are infected, but nearly all of those arise from people infected when inside premises. Outside the chance of getting infected is 1 in 17000 so minuscule.

The meat factory infections illustrate this. All the workers caught it from inside. The spread outside the factory has been relatively small and generally,family members in the same house...no people outside that they know

@PatriciaHolm
Daily deaths yesterday were higher than the previous Friday.
And daily deaths on Thursday were higher than the previous Thursday.
Hopefully a blip.

Not sure if this will work.

I wish the government would just publish the slides they used to show eg on bbc every day.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/895932/2020-06-266COVID-19UKKdeathstimee_series.csv Publicly confirmed as deceased as of 5pm this day,Date published by DHSC,UK Cumulative count of deaths in all settings,UK Daily count of deaths in all settings
05-Mar-20,06-Mar-20,1,1
06-Mar-20,07-Mar-20,2,1
07-Mar-20,08-Mar-20,2,0
08-Mar-20,09-Mar-20,3,1
09-Mar-20,10-Mar-20,7,4
10-Mar-20,11-Mar-20,7,0
11-Mar-20,12-Mar-20,9,2
12-Mar-20,13-Mar-20,10,1
13-Mar-20,14-Mar-20,28,18
14-Mar-20,15-Mar-20,43,15
15-Mar-20,16-Mar-20,65,22
16-Mar-20,17-Mar-20,81,16
17-Mar-20,18-Mar-20,115,34
18-Mar-20,19-Mar-20,158,43
19-Mar-20,20-Mar-20,194,36
20-Mar-20,21-Mar-20,250,56
21-Mar-20,22-Mar-20,285,35
22-Mar-20,23-Mar-20,359,74
23-Mar-20,24-Mar-20,508,149
24-Mar-20,25-Mar-20,695,187
25-Mar-20,26-Mar-20,878,183
26-Mar-20,27-Mar-20,1162,284
27-Mar-20,28-Mar-20,1456,294
28-Mar-20,29-Mar-20,1670,214
29-Mar-20,30-Mar-20,2044,374
30-Mar-20,31-Mar-20,2426,382
31-Mar-20,01-Apr-20,3096,670
01-Apr-20,02-Apr-20,3748,652
02-Apr-20,03-Apr-20,4462,714
03-Apr-20,04-Apr-20,5222,760
04-Apr-20,05-Apr-20,5866,644
05-Apr-20,06-Apr-20,6434,568
06-Apr-20,07-Apr-20,7472,1038
07-Apr-20,08-Apr-20,8506,1034
08-Apr-20,09-Apr-20,9616,1110
09-Apr-20,10-Apr-20,10768,1152
10-Apr-20,11-Apr-20,11608,840
11-Apr-20,12-Apr-20,12294,686
12-Apr-20,13-Apr-20,13038,744
13-Apr-20,14-Apr-20,14085,1047
14-Apr-20,15-Apr-20,14927,842
15-Apr-20,16-Apr-20,15956,1029
16-Apr-20,17-Apr-20,16892,936
17-Apr-20,18-Apr-20,18007,1115
18-Apr-20,19-Apr-20,18505,498
19-Apr-20,20-Apr-20,19064,559
20-Apr-20,21-Apr-20,20237,1173
21-Apr-20,22-Apr-20,21074,837
22-Apr-20,23-Apr-20,21801,727
23-Apr-20,24-Apr-20,22807,1006
24-Apr-20,25-Apr-20,23650,843
25-Apr-20,26-Apr-20,24070,420
26-Apr-20,27-Apr-20,24408,338
27-Apr-20,28-Apr-20,25319,911
28-Apr-20,29-Apr-20,26114,765
29-Apr-20,30-Apr-20,26788,674
30-Apr-20,01-May-20,27528,740
01-May-20,02-May-20,28149,621
02-May-20,03-May-20,28464,315
03-May-20,04-May-20,28752,288
04-May-20,05-May-20,29446,694
05-May-20,06-May-20,30098,652
06-May-20,07-May-20,30638,540
07-May-20,08-May-20,31265,627
08-May-20,09-May-20,31611,346
09-May-20,10-May-20,31879,269
10-May-20,11-May-20,32090,211
11-May-20,12-May-20,32720,630
12-May-20,13-May-20,33216,496
13-May-20,14-May-20,33644,428
14-May-20,15-May-20,34028,384
15-May-20,16-May-20,34508,480
16-May-20,17-May-20,34678,170
17-May-20,18-May-20,34838,160
18-May-20,19-May-20,35386,548
19-May-20,20-May-20,35755,369
20-May-20,21-May-20,36093,338
21-May-20,22-May-20,36451,358
22-May-20,23-May-20,36734,283
23-May-20,24-May-20,37175,441
24-May-20,25-May-20,37297,122
25-May-20,26-May-20,37433,136
26-May-20,27-May-20,37876,443
27-May-20,28-May-20,38292,416
28-May-20,29-May-20,38665,373
29-May-20,30-May-20,38895,230
30-May-20,31-May-20,39010,115
31-May-20,01-Jun-20,39121,111
01-Jun-20,02-Jun-20,39447,326
02-Jun-20,03-Jun-20,39812,365
03-Jun-20,04-Jun-20,39989,177
04-Jun-20,05-Jun-20,40347,358
05-Jun-20,06-Jun-20,40554,207
06-Jun-20,07-Jun-20,40631,77
07-Jun-20,08-Jun-20,40686,55
08-Jun-20,09-Jun-20,40975,289
09-Jun-20,10-Jun-20,41225,250
10-Jun-20,11-Jun-20,41377,152
11-Jun-20,12-Jun-20,41581,204
12-Jun-20,13-Jun-20,41764,183
13-Jun-20,14-Jun-20,41800,36
14-Jun-20,15-Jun-20,41838,38
15-Jun-20,16-Jun-20,42074,236
16-Jun-20,17-Jun-20,42258,184
17-Jun-20,18-Jun-20,42395,137
18-Jun-20,19-Jun-20,42568,173
19-Jun-20,20-Jun-20,42698,130
20-Jun-20,21-Jun-20,42741,43
21-Jun-20,22-Jun-20,42756,15
22-Jun-20,23-Jun-20,42927,171
23-Jun-20,24-Jun-20,43081,154
24-Jun-20,25-Jun-20,43230,149
25-Jun-20,26-Jun-20,43414,186

Those figures are reflecting how long it takes for someone to die though..... if it’s 30 today and 10 tomorrow but there’s 100 in critical condition it means very little. You are just basically waiting for those 100 to die....

@2020notQuiteAsPlanned

Yes, as I said. For 3 days this week announced deaths were slightly higher than last week.

However overall deaths announced over the past 7 days were 149 lower than the previous 7 days, hospital admissions are trending down as are ventilation beds used, with 7 day rolling averages down for both about 15%.

As are actual deaths by day, the announced deaths often bear little relation to the actual deaths that day because of reporting issues.

The error margins are quite large - don't forget the false negative rate is thought to be 20%. If you test 5 people and they all come back negative, one of them is actually positive. So don't forget to add on 20% to the cases number. Which coupled with the almost comical counting rules the government uses to generate the testing numbers, which even they are embarrassed to share now, makes it really hard to believe any number other than the deaths number.

There was an interesting section on More Or Less about how many people who died of COVID-19 would have probably died this month/quarter/year anyway - with the exception of road accidents etc the COVID numbers aren't lost in the noise.

139 lower not 149, apologies.

@PatriciaHolm
Yes, I agree, hopefully a blip as I said.
That's why the trend is more meaningful as it irons out the various delays etc.
But too many "blips" .....

@didireallysaythat
The stats I posted as deaths so no false positives there.......

@2020notQuiteAsPlanned - yup. Depressing that these are the only numbers that can be trusted really...

Yes. It's grim.

To be honest, the stats on calls/triage for Covid on 111/111 online, hospital admissions and ventilator beds are much more useful for what is happening now. Deaths reflect what was happening a month or so ago (and even more in some cases as quite a lot of deaths reported are often from a week or more ago).

Fortunately,all of those measures are on a steady decline right now.

@Alexa50 the whole point of making sure Covid death figures are accurate is that only deaths directly related to Covid are recorded. Otherwise the stats all the way through would have been double that!!