Anyone good at maths ?

[ToothFairyNemesis]

If 1:1700 people currently have Covid19 in the U.K. and the population is 67,886,011 what percentage of the population have Covid19? I can’t work it out , and with shielding ending soon I would like to feel reassured.

.05% as far as I'm aware.

I prefer to look at it as I have to meet 1700 people to potentially meet one with covid

I feel like it’s 0.06%

It’s 0.05% (1/1700 x 100), which is just under 4 million people

Thank you for some reason, despite being rubbish at maths. I feel reassured by percentages so to know >99% of people I would come into contact with will not have Covid19 eases my anxiety. It’s going to be really hard venturing out after so long.

I prefer to look at it as I have to meet 1700 people to potentially meet one with covid

I’d say it’s more like 851 people. Because once you’ve met that 851st person you’re more likely than not to have met someone with COVID-19.

But then no, because those people are likely to have met other people so I’d say you’re pretty much buggered.

It’s 0.05% (1/1700 x 100), which is just under 4 million people

Huh? I get 39,932 currently with covid, which is 0.06% (rounding up from 0.058) of the population.

4 million? I thought it was closer to 40,000?

It's a pointless exercise because the UK isn't one country, it's four countries who are all employing different laws to get rid of Covid.

NI has just about stopped having new cases as have many parts of Scotland. I'm not sure about Wales, but the Westminster crew have ensured that there will be plenty of Covid around in England for the foreseeable future.

If you were in Scotland, you would feel very reassured - if you're in England, good luck.

4 million would be 5% of the population.

There's an outbreak in Wales at the moment

@SpuriouserAndSpuriouser

It’s 0.05% (1/1700 x 100), which is just under 4 million people

It’s fewer than 40,000 people. Actually I think your chance of meeting someone with it is less than 1:1700, because the symptomatic ones should be self isolating.

If you meet 5 people who by the time they've met you have also met 5 people who have also met 5 people etc then by 5 degrees of separation you've met nearly 4000 people, two of which will have COVID.

OP, I think you'll have to accept that at some point you'll meet someone who's been in contact with someone who.... but that doesn't mean that you'll contract it because you have the weapon of washing your hands, not touching your face and keeping people at a distance.

You'll be fine, if you're careful.

Charts like this are more useful for you than looking at 'UK' figures.

You need to look at England's population and rate of infection, as well as where the infections are happening.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/coronavirus-england-cases-falling-or-rising-near-you

Well I've got 38,823 people....

66million ÷ 1700

Based on your extremely specific (:-)) UK population number, 1/1700 = 39,932 people.

But of course, you don't just have to meet one of them, you actually have to catch it from them.

ONS figures suggest around 4k a day new infections as an average for April 26 - 13 June, so now likely to be quite a lot lower than that.

[quote Chocolatedeficitdisorder]Charts like this are more useful for you than looking at 'UK' figures.

You need to look at England's population and rate of infection, as well as where the infections are happening.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/coronavirus-england-cases-falling-or-rising-near-you[/quote]
Unfortunately, that only shows the results from Pillar 1 testing, so it doesn't include the tests now being done in the community, which we don't have locations for and which now make up the bulk of both tests and new infections. Which is annoying....

Not all the infected are wandering around infecting people - many will be in hospital or a care home, many more will be bedridden and sick at home or isolating because they live with someone who is or they got told to isolate by track and trace. Obviously some will ignore the guidance but it must be a decent chunk of the infected out of general circulation. It must be fewer than 1:1700 people you’d bump into in Tesco doing a weekly shop for example.

It's the population 66 million divided by 1700 which is 38000

That's what I don't get. If it is 1/1700 then like a PP said above that would mean 39,932 people have CV right now.

But the scientists guesstimate less than 4,000 people have it, so surely that would be less than 1 in 1700 and more like 1 in 17,000

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50

That's what I don't get. If it is 1/1700 then like a PP said above that would mean 39,932 people have CV right now.

But the scientists guesstimate less than 4,000 people have it, so surely that would be less than 1 in 1700 and more like 1 in 17,000

No, scientists are estimating just under 4000 daily new infections, not total infections.

Yes I know I want necessarily catch it if I meet someone with Covid. It’s just the risks to my health are so high if I do.
I live in England in an area that current has a high R value. Hopefully that will go down by August.

*won’t

Yes sorry, I wasn’t paying attention and I was out by a factor of 100! It’s just under 40,000. Point being, the vast majority of people you come into contact with won’t have it so. Hopefully you’ll feel able to venture out but it’s must be pretty nerve-wracking after 3 months inside!

@SpuriouserAndSpuriouser Thank you, I need to be able to go out as it’s not fair on my dc who have had to shield with me.

Just a thought... these figures are massively different to the estimates created by the Zoe app.

The estimated number of people with covid varies around the regions from 0.2% to 1%, so let’s say a rough average for the country is 0.5%.

That would mean approx. 340,000 people currently have covid. Why is the Zoe estimate around 10 times higher than the ONS?

I know the Zoe app figures are estimates, but you wouldn’t expect the figures to be that far out surely.