1 in 1700 has the virus

[Wowthisisreal]

How do you feel about this figure?

For me it makes a lot of my fears and concerns be about the virus feel redundant (I'm quite chill but also cautious).

It also makes me feel like some people's reactions are now OTT.

Surely this is now a similar figure to people to have a cold? Or chicken pox? Or cold sores? (I have no idea but just an observation)

It kind of makes the fact it's still illegal to go in someone else's house a bit mind boggling as well.

Obv COVID is new and it is dangerous for so many, but for many many more it is not.

The fact it’s down to 1 in 1,700 is great... but it was probably at that level in January/February too, and look what happened in March.

To assume it’s there all over would be the height of stupidity and recklessness.

It would be like going on a diet, getting close to your desired weight, and then return to eating cakes and pies whilst also being confident you will still continue to lose weight and reach your goal!

We need to open up and start getting back to some kind of normal, just not 2019-type normal just yet.

Similar to COVID

Only Covid kills about 10x as many as the flu and many time more again than the Common cold!

I think in the future we’ll look back on all this and realise we trashed the economy and destroyed the life chances and health of millions to save people over 80.

People have short memories. Schools and hospital wards were closing back in March because they were short staffed with huge numbers of staff being off with symptoms or with confirmed covid. Without a lockdown to control covid, that would have got even worse leading to wholesale closure of schools and hospitals anyway. Even fewer people may have received medical attention if the NHS had completely collapsed due to lack of staff and wards having to be closed for cleaning etc. It wasn't people in their 80s who were calling in sick from their jobs in schools and hospitals!

Infections don't occur evenly distributed across the country. People infect those near to them so you get clusters and hotspots.

The same behaviour could be an overreaction in one place and an underreaction somewhere else and people have no way of knowing unless they seek out the most local data they can find.

I think we need to get away from blunt, nationwide prevalence figures and stop treating the whole country the same.

I think we need to get away from blunt, nationwide prevalence figures and stop treating the whole country the same.
I agree with this and I think the idea of localised lockdowns is a good one, provided that people in a "lockdown area" dont just immediately up sticks and move in with family in a different area to avoid lockdowns.

The Guardian has a list today of cases in different areas www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/coronavirus-uk-map-the-latest-deaths-and-confirmed-covid-19-cases

I'd like to know more about that tennis tournament.

There was so much arrogance behind that, how he dare now say "We just wanted to do something nice for everyone...!"

Frugifan, it's doesn't say what the figures represent. Is it current active cases, or what?

@picklemewalnuts

Frugifan, it's doesn't say what the figures represent. Is it current active cases, or what?

It's total lab-confirmed cases, cumulative since the start of tracking. As such, it's only about half of cases that are broken down to local level, as we don't know the locations of the Pillar 2 positives. it comes from here

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=nations&map=case

So we have 3016,210 total positives, but only 195,288 broken down by location.

Ah ok. Cumulative isn't very informative for decisions about how safe your area is now.

Oh sorry that is pretty useless then, I assumed it was current cases. I'm sure I've seen data for current cases in my area but dont seem to be able to find it now!

Try this
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/?utm_source=embed

Visualisation of why covid is a big issue

That's an astonishing graphic. I've seen it before. It should be shown on every news programme!

@embracelife Where did you get that graphic and who is the author? What source does it use?

It's an interesting graphic and probably confirms what I'd expect for a global pandemic but not really useful in terms of this discussion which is more about the threat in the UK specifically at this point in time.

We know the virus is only just getting started in South America and Africa so I'd expect that figure to rise.

Also I'm not sure anyone here is arguing that COVID isn't an issue full stop. It's more whether it's an immediate 'my life must go on hold' issue here in the UK at the moment.

Boris has given you the go ahead to use "Common sense".
You can do whatever you like.after 4 July. But no swimming or nail bar yet!

But many will be cautious.
And infection rates are soaring in other countries see the worldometer site. We should not be complacent.

No vaccine yet. Spreads fast. Kills many due to sheer numbers.
If it was really only impacting 80 year old plus we would likely not have lockdowns.

1 in 1700 sounds low, but there will be more in some areas than others. So I'm not taking it as given. There could still be quite a few in my home town that I might come across. Someone said 1 in 10000 in Wales, but there are 150 in Anglesea alone.

Also, the density and mobility of the population makes a difference.there are many more cases per 100k in Denbighshire than Nottingham, but I'd think you are more likely to bump into them in Nottingham!