When will life return to normal?

[MumOfAToddler26]

I know no one knows the answer to that but what will it take for us to get our old life's back to normal again?
No social distancing in place and going out and being next to people without thinking about it.
Surely they can't keep us like this indefinitely we will have to be able to get back to normal soon?
Nightclubs (not that I go to them) theatre shows and concerts are just some of the things that you can't social distance for, I just keep thinking about it all today and can't see an end to it 😭😭 x

The new normal isn’t just about the ongoing pandemic. Many changes will persist even if the virus disappears completely because it has accelerated changes that were happening anyway (eg remote working). Lots of companies and local authorities have invested money in things like reconfiguring roads and public spaces. These won’t be put back. Then we have the task of rebuilding a post-virus and post-brexit economy. It is unlikely to look like the economy of the past.

We can only get back completely to normal when one of the 3 things happen:

a) we get an effective treatment or vaccine, which seems unlikely to happen before 2021, though potentially it could be longer (hopefully not!)

b) we obtain herd immunity... Given about 7% have antibodies, and around 50% have antibodies in the worst affected place (Bergamo, Italy), we are unfortunately not close to this. If we collectively decided we had had enough and went back completely to normal over the next few weeks, we’d be back at square one by September in terms of infections and deaths. We could theoretically as a society set our faces like flint, carry on regardless, and refuse to lockdown as we did in March, and accept a death toll many times higher than we have to date, and push on until it burnt itself out.... but I can’t see that happening.

c) we collectively suppress it as a planet such that it disappears or mutates into something less severe. I’m not an expert but I believe it’s a fallacy to think this will happen whilst Covid is able spread readily in parts of the world as there’s no evolutionary pressure on it to make a change... a mutation will only succeed the current version is under severe reproductive stress and the mutation is able to propagate more easily.

It will be many months before any a) or c) happens, and we’d lose our collective nerve before we achieved b) unless we did it slowly over the course of a year or more.

However, many countries have suppressed it enough to get 90%+ of life back to normal. As long as infections get down to low enough levels, and testing and tracing is widespread enough, we can get back almost to normal by aggressively suppressing clusters when they arise without taking population wide measures. If we don’t screw it up as a society we’re probably a month or so away from this. That’s why it’s so important we don’t collectively let our discipline lapse.

I think a fear has set in and not sure it’ll ever pass now, or not at least for a long time or in the current generation

Of course it will! This 'fear' has existed for only about 4 months. That's nothing. People aren't going to live their lives in fear of their fellow human beings forever, because that's not human nature. Several European countries are already well on the road back to normal. The idea that a whole generation is going to be permanently scarred by staying at home for a few months is silly I think.

a) we get an effective treatment or vaccine, which seems unlikely to happen before 2021, though potentially it could be longer (hopefully not!)

Or it could be sooner.

The Oxford team are optimistic that their vaccine could be available as early as Sep, and have already teamed up with Astra Zeneca to have millions of doses ready to go as soon as the vaccine is approved. Would take longer for it to available in larger numbers obviously, but other vaccines are already in the trial phase and could be ready by the end of the year too.

If Boris announces this evening you can now go and hug members of your family in other households, would you though? The virus is still there, I still don’t want to risk giving it to my parents, or getting it off someone else. So I guess I don’t feel like they’re ‘keeping us like this’, because I agree with them, and wouldn’t do much differently right now even if they said I could. And it makes it a little bit easier, because I don’t feel like things are being done to me, I feel like I’m doing what I feel is the safest thing.

Not sure what the new normal will be generally but looks like my new normal will be having two adult dc back at home after several years peace and quiet.

One has been made redundant and the other doing online lectures. It won't be easy, but I'm hanging on to the idea that at least we are all healthy!

Walking around our town in South Norfolk yesterday I think people have forgotten about coronavirus... no one was social distancing and it was as busy as it ever was. Only the shops reminded me of what’s going on - screens, stickers on the floor etc. I think people are getting fed up of the whole social distancing thing and pretty soon no one will do it anymore.

Yes I would go and hug my parents if I could. Given we’ve been nowhere but the shops since March I’d take the risk that the chances of me being of the less than a 1 in a 1000 people with it are pretty remote.

More bothered about the repercussions of a destroyed economy over the coming years than going to the theatre again tbh.

Theatres are part of the economy though.

@Bagelsandbrie

Walking around our town in South Norfolk yesterday I think people have forgotten about coronavirus... no one was social distancing and it was as busy as it ever was. Only the shops reminded me of what’s going on - screens, stickers on the floor etc. I think people are getting fed up of the whole social distancing thing and pretty soon no one will do it anymore.

People will forget about Covid either over the next few months if it tails off, or next spring/summer if we get a second wave over Autumn/winter.

But normal life won't return because there will be a lot of social changes, some of which are being played out already in culture wars. And we'll also have to deal with the worst economic turmoil for generations, just as we were coming out of a decade of austerity (hence more social problems). Add Brexit into the mix as well.

People will therefore be going back to the pubs and concerts and football, shops, gyms and restaurants as normal at some point over the next 12 months and going on holidays. Whether they'll have any money to do it is another matter.

I need theatres to open, acting is my passion and the thing that brings me the most joy in my life, it's really affecting my mental health not being able to do what I love.

@RoseGoldEagle yes I would and have already done so. I believe the risk is small enough.

I can't see anyone vulnerable wanting a hug anytime soon. I can't see theatres reopening. I can't imagine why people would get on a plane right now, or a cruise or even a packed tube

Vulnerable people are getting hugs. My 87 year old grandmother said life wouldn’t be worth living anyway without hugs.
We had flights booked for July. They’ve been cancelled but if they hadn’t been we’d have gone. Many people are still holding out hope for their summer holidays.
People in London are still commuting via tube.

sorry but you did ask.

Sorry for what? Giving your opinion? Don’t be sorry, there’s nothing to say that you’re right.

If Boris announces this evening you can now go and hug members of your family in other households, would you though?

Yes. In fact I have just hugged my mum, as we’re now allowed to bubble with her.
There is approx a 1 in 1600 chance of encountering someone with Covid. In fact less, as a number of those who have it will have symptoms and be isolating, it will have been tested and will be isolated.

driving

I won't be hugging my mother, I don't know for sure that I am not infected and would wish to be responsible for her death.
Your flights are cancelled, so clearly you aren't going overseas. Hoping for a holiday is not the same as having one!
Yes I know people are on tubes, if you lived here you would know they are half empty.

You might feel you are back to normal by hugging all the elderly people around you, and booking holidays but many of us are taking a much more cautious approach.

**not wish to be responsible.

Well I am hugging my mother, I am rebooking my flights for when they’re available, and no I don’t live in London but I work there and will be back in the office as soon as I’m allowed, however packed the tubes are

driving up to you if you think it is safe and your family are happy to be hugged then do whatever you want, fly all over the world if you can. You will see when you finally get back to work how few people want to travel on tubes and trains these days. Of course there are some people, but you will be guaranteed a seat at least.

The point is this is a long long way from a normal existence for most people.

Of course it’s far from normal. There are so many things I’d like to do that I am currently unable to, like go to restaurants/the gym/swimming etc. But you spoke as if everyone is not doing these things because they don’t want to/are scared to. I’m only not doing them because I’m not allowed to, just like the vast majority of people I know. We would if we could, and will be when we can.

I can’t see queuing outside shops continuing into the winter. It’s ok now while it’s warm but will be a different matter completely when it’s 0c and chucking it down.

@Polkadotties

I can’t see queuing outside shops continuing into the winter. It’s ok now while it’s warm but will be a different matter completely when it’s 0c and chucking it down.

Agreed. If they want to get the economy moving - which is crucial - they will have to reduce social distancing. Nobody is going to stand in a queue a mile long in the snow to buy Christmas presents.

@Drivingdownthe101 why is that? Don't you worry at all about you or your family getting Covid?

First of all I detest the phrase "new normal" it is shit and causes anxiety

Yes life will go Back to normal but with a recession, a new pandemic of mental health.

I think people will wash their hands more and be wary personally I can't wait to hug my friends and get pissed in the pub! (I never went out) I broke down the other day as it got too much and I am more scared about my kids future and mental health than the virus

The problem is the government have frightened a fair proportion of the country to death and don't know how to get out of it. The media have done this to a greater extent, but want it to continue as it makes great headlines for them.

Exactly.